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Response to Any signs of a downturn in the housing market yet?

from Chris (chrsh@email.com)
I'm not sure I really agree with the reply you got here. If I could predict the future with that degree of certainty I'd make a small fortune.

Firstly, it will depend on WHERE you live as to whether there will be a crash and how big it will be.

I live in the South East, just outside London and have been listening to warnings of an impending crash for about 3 years now. What all these commentators conveniently forget is the law of supply and demand. In the South East there simply is not enough property to satisfy demand. In any situation where demand outstrips supply prices inevitably will go up, or at least stay the same. There is no incentive for them to decrease.

There is a lack of affordable housing in particular, and I think the problem is exacerbated by people who buy multiple properties in order to derive a rental income. I won't comment on the morality of that, but it is, I think a factor.

In short, my advice to most people is to buy UNLESS you know you will move within a couple of years. Once you have bought, mortgage payments tend to stay the same whereas rent increases. I purchased about 10 years ago and my mortgage payments are now FAR less than I would pay in rent each month. Partly this is to do with low interest of course, but partly because rent always goes up. A house is a long-term investment, and should be viewed as such - but, with my caveat above, I would give serious thought to purchasing if you can afford to do so.

(posted 7649 days ago)

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