Latest article from Stratfor detailing the collapse of Russia: Could this be us post y2k? Add to this the fact that they will be doing nothing in the way of repairs for their y2k problems, and they have a huge arsenal of nukes.

Global Intelligence Update Red Alert September 1, 1998

Key Russian Army Units Reportedly Placed on Alert

Citing a "highly positioned source at the Defense Ministry," the Russian newspaper "Komsomolskaya Pravda" reported Monday that commanders of the Tamanskaya and Kantemirovskaya Divisions and the Tyoplyi Stan Brigade, all stationed near Moscow, as well as the Tula, Ryazan, and Tver Divisions, have been ordered to "prepare themselves for extraordinary situations." Officers have reportedly had their leaves canceled, and the units have been ordered to increase their guard on ammunition, food, and fuel stockpiles. Komsomolskaya Pravda also reported that acting Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev had assured Russian President Boris Yeltsin of the troops' loyalty during a recent meeting. Additionally, the newspaper reported that the Interior Ministry had been ordered to prepare to "act under extraordinary circumstances" in Moscow, should civil unrest arise. Finally, the newspaper reported that Russia's Federal Security Service, the successor to the KGB, is monitoring the situation in Moscow and the Far East for any signs of destabilization.

Despite Sergeyev's alleged assurances of loyalty, the idea that Yeltsin can rely on the military to come to his aid as it has twice in the past is far from certain. Others are calling for the army's support as well. On Monday, Russian Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov called on the army and law enforcement agencies to defend against any attempt by Yeltsin to disband the parliament. In a speech before the Duma, Zyuganov said, "I am appealing to all people, especially those who wear uniform. The last island of little legality which still exists in the country is here in the Duma and the Federation Council. If it is finished and destroyed, then chaos and gangs will prevail."

Still another possibility was posed by retired General Alexander Lebed, who declared in an interview published Monday in the French newspaper "Le Figaro," that "The army is in a revolutionary mood." "In what mood do you think the army is when officers have not been paid for five months?" he asked. Lebed concluded that "The government could collapse in 24 hours. Everybody is fed up." He urged support for acting Prime Minister Viktor Chernomyrdin, who he insisted was the only person with even the slightest chance of averting Russia's collapse. The Duma later rejected Chernomyrdin's appointment.

The Russian Army has been as battered by the country's economic decline and collapse as has the rest of the population, and has been reduced to scavenging in preparation for the coming winter. Soldiers are frequently seen begging in Russia's cities, as months can pass between paychecks, which are as inadequate as they are rare. More than 150,000 discharged soldiers await promised housing, and Komsomolskaya Pravda has reported that worthless housing vouchers issued to Baltic Fleet officers have driven them to the brink of mutiny. Isolated acts of rebellion have already occurred. In one incident in July, a major in central Russia reportedly took to the streets in a commandeered tank to protest unpaid salaries. Despite promises by Chernomyrdin to pay overdue military salaries, acting Defense Minister Sergeyev has ordered all ranks of commanders to "look for additional sources [of sustenance for the winter] and assume personal control." Orders have reportedly been issued to all soldiers and officers to take to the fields to harvest mushrooms, berries, and other sources of food for the winter.

During the failed coup attempt in 1991 against then-President Gorbachev by hard-liners, and again in the standoff between Yeltsin and hard-liners in the Duma in 1993, the Russian Army either stood aside or stood by Yeltsin. However, in both cases, popular opinion was largely on Yeltsin's side. If asked to defend Yeltsin against overwhelming civilian opposition, the army this time is likely to step aside. With almost no support for Yeltsin, either in or outside of Russia, the army has little to gain by turning Red Square into a Tienanmen Square for him. Furthermore, as the army rank and file share the economic grievances of masses, the Russian General Staff will wish to avoid situations that could force divisions in the ranks.

-- red dragon (drag@hotmail.com), September 01, 1998

Answers

The fact that President Clinton is in Russia as we type is scary to me. The potential for an international incident has to be increased.

-- bhayes (bkhayes@intellex.com), September 01, 1998.

What can two crippled leaders accomplish? Clinton should have stayed at home, made a phone call to Yeltsin expressing sympathy for Russia's financial collapse and save the taxpayers millions for his and Hillary's trip. I'm wondering if they took Hillary's $20,000 toilet with them on this trip? She had a throne special made when they went to China...........

-- Bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 01, 1998.

Having been to Russia I can understand why a woman would want to bring her own toilet. When I arrived back in the states I wanted to hug the porcelain in customs. And I'm a guy...

The best facilities we had was an outhouse that had majestic concrete steps leading up to it. It had 1/2 inch slits between the boards and at 20 below you didn't read the paper. Reminded me of being a boy in North Dakota when we'd visit the farm. Memories....

-- Pastor Chris (pastorchris@lifetel.com), September 03, 1998.