I can recall a time, as a young pup, doing the math to figure out how old I would be on my birthday in the Year 2000 (46, for the terminally curious among you). It was also intrinsically fascinating to me to think that I would be alive at a time in history to witness something few have seen - the rolling of the calendar to a new millennium (please, no nitpicky comments about the new millennium actually starting in 2001; I know that). As a young man, I viewed this distant event with more anticipation than the arrival of Haley's comet - heck, as a boy, my grandfather had seen Haley's comet the last time it showed up big in the early 1900's. But only people who had lived in Christ's time (0 AD) and folks in the medieval ages (1000 AD) had seen something like we're going to experience in 457 days.

As far back as 10 or 15 years ago, I read an article about making reservations for a millennium change party in Egypt at the base of the pyramids. Dick Clark has been planning his Rockin' New Year's Millennium Eve for quite some time. Dave Eastabrook is going to be partying hardy with his fellow kilted countrymen (and women) at the big Hogmanay bash in Scotland. Even consistent non-partiers such as my sister are planning a big, weeklong family gathering between Christmas and New Years. Yes, folks, this is a big damn deal. There will be at least 100 generations of mankind before something like this rolls around again.

The cornerstone of most Y2K contingency plans (for those companies that have even started thinking about such plans) seems to be people - in other words, having a full staff complement on hand to address any problems during the transition from 12/31/1999 to 01/01/2000. Vacations, holidays, and military leave during this time are already being cancelled. It occurs to me that, while such plans 'look good on paper', the reality is that imposing on employee's personal time during this truly momentous occasion is expecting a lot from the covenant of "employer-employee loyalty". Over the past 10 years, many of us have up close and personal experiences with this covenant, and have found that it's truly a one way street.

A few questions for the geeks and technicians:

• If your employer asks, will you be there at 10PM on 12/31/1999?
• What will the reaction of your wife/significant other/family be?
• What will your own reaction be?

-- Anonymous, September 30, 1998

Answers

They won't have to ask, I will be working on Y2K solutions for embedded systems from early 1999 until well into 2000. I expect there to be a furious pace of last-minute contingency planning in the last weeks of 1999. All contingency plans in all industries are going to require a huge amount of raw people power. Having a fair bit of People and Program Management experience I expect to be involved in the planning as well as in the "grunt" work in the days and weeks following New Year's Day.

I see it as a relatively small sacrifice for a large pay off in terms of personal satisfaction. Each of us who is truly aware of the depth and breadth of the problem owes it to ourselves as much as to society to do all that we can do. I personally could never forgive myself if knowing what I know, I had not done all I could.

Not only that, but if we all do our jobs right we can carry out our Millennium celebrations when we're supposed to, On December 31st, 2000, to usher in the Twenty-First Century which begins January 1st, 2001!

That said, I also have full "worst case scenario" preparations at a rural site. Prepare for the worst, and hope, work and pray for the best.

Sincerely, Andrew J. Edgar Manager, Systems Software Centigram Communications Corp.

-- Anonymous, September 30, 1998

Rick, I also remember figuring I'd be 51 in 2000. That seemed pretty ancient by 15 year old eyes; nowadays it seems much younger! My husband is a geek computer consultant installing/integrating Baan (compliant) industrial systems. He'll be at home on 12/31/1999 for one reason only, and that is because there would be little to nothing he could do, in the short term, to repair or prevent any computer disruptions during the millenium changeover, even if he were onsite. We have, however, declined an invitation to celebrate the century change with family out of state, in order for him to be available should a necessity arise.

If he worked for a utility, in whatever capacity, and there was a chance that being present might help keep things running, he would work. I have no doubts on that, and I would support him. I think any personal decision on this would be based on whether or not actually being on the job site could make a difference. Of course, this presumes that the employee is aware of the potential problems Y2K can create. If they're not, then I can see no reason for them not to tell their employers "no way!" when asked to work on a holiday. It's logical to assume, then, that any employer would have to admit to the possibility of disruption in order to convince people to show up for work. Another pertinent question might be, "Will management admit that possibility to its employees early enough to keep them from making celebratory plans/trips on that weekend, or will they wait until the last and risk being unable to contact those who are out of town?" Or worse, risk calling in employees who have already been at the celebratory booze? And if, as you mentioned, vacations, holidays, and leave are already being cancelled in some areas, isn't this in itself an inditement of all the "no problem" reports we're getting in the news? If utilities and businesses "are on top of things" and "have everything under control" and "will be completely remediated", then there shouldn't be any reason for extra holiday staffing...

-- Anonymous, September 30, 1998

Mr. Cowles:

Gary North believes that the power grid might go down at midnight on August 21st 1999, when the GPS week counter rolls back to zero. Would (or should) your question apply as well to that date?

-- Anonymous, October 02, 1998

I'm an electrical engineer but I don't work for a power company. I wish I COULD work on that night. I'd volunteer but I'm sure Rochester Gas & Electric doesn't need "amateur night" on the most important night of electrical history since Edison said "Hey, let's try this tungsten stuff."

-- Anonymous, December 02, 1998

Early in 1997 we defined 12/15/1999 thru 1/15/2000 as a vacation blackout period and communicated this policy to all of our staff and Union representatives. We will be here. We are all on pagers and on call 24x7x365 during a normal year and our staff has pride in providing the highest quality service possible. We plan to grill some steaks, drink some Coke and watch the fireworks display of a lifetime!

Jim

-- Anonymous, December 03, 1998

I remember calculating that I would turn 33 during 2000, and it has been interesting to reflect on my thoughts back then. Rick, you raise an issue I hadn't thought of impacting me personally.

My family is dispersed between the U.K. and the U.S. (FL, NY, and WI). My husband and I own & operate a dairy farm in Wisconsin. We have a generator, a well, a sceptic system and plenty of ground for growing things! I had planned on inviting my family to spend the big weekend here - partly because we rarely get a chance to be together all at once and the big event seemed like a good excuse - partly because if things get seriously nasty (infrastructure collapse for 2 - 6 months), we'd all be better off here at the farm. Up until now, my main roadblock to this idea was that if disruption was minor (air travel, electricty unavailable for a few days) my family might be better off at home. You have raised another problem - they may not have the choice to leave home! One brother is European Finance Director for a global corporation, another brother-in-law is responsible for internal network hardware of an international bank. It wouldn't surprise me if both are told they need to be at least in the locality. However, if by Nov '99 it is obvious that disruption is going to be major perhaps the safety of the farm vs. the city will become more important than company loyalty.

-- Anonymous, December 04, 1998

Rick,

Our multi-service utility (about 75,000) is located in north Florida and operates a control area in the FRCC region (Hey Jim!). We have also been working on the Y2K problem since 1996.

I, with others, will be reporting to the system control center (perhaps closer to 11p.m.) on December 31, 1999 to greet the new millenium. Like Jims company, some of our technical support employees are on call around the clock. As a 30-year employee of my local municipal utility and a 38-year resident of our city, I sincerely feel an obligation to our customers to be available. Not because my employer asks or insists that I be there. Nor because I feel or fear that all our work will have been to no avail. But rather because this is the nature of our business and being available during times of risk meets the expectations of our customers. We respond to potential problems from hurricanes, storms and tornadoes just as readily, why would we treat potential Y2K problems any differently?

What is my reaction to reporting to work? It is my responsibility to support my company and my customers during these periods regardless of the event. I would respectfully question Bonnies presumption that a utility must admit to the possibility of disruptions in order to convince employees to respond. If shes right, then perhaps our Y2K problem has just been diminished and we need to begin work to correct a problem even more systemic the collective work ethic.

The possibility of disruptions is nothing new although Y2K certainly does add new dimensions. Clearly, while there are no easy solutions, the dreaded Double Zero is simply another challenge to overcome. Best wishes to everyone.

-- Anonymous, December 07, 1998