How safe is it to fly this December, while airline test and assess their aircraft and systems with us aboard like human guinea pigs?

Is there anyone out there who is part of the aviation industry, an insider, who can shed some light on this? I have just a wee bit of butterflies in the tummy over upcoming holiday travel.

-- Sara Nealy (saran@ptd.net), December 01, 1998

Answers

I'm not an aeronautics expert, but in general, you're much more likely to die in a car accident than in an airplane crash. Airline pilots, while still human and subject to mistakes, are much more highly trained than your average automible pilot. I've always thought that if my airplane got into trouble, the crew I'd want flying it was the crew of United 232 (crashed at Souix City, Ia July 19, 1989). The pilot's name was Al Hanes, you can read his story here:

http://www.panix .com/~jac/aviation/haynes.html

It will tell you a lot about the aircraft and the people who fly them. I can't speak as to any increased risk at the present time but I don't yet see them dropping from the sky at an increased rate. Yet I believe caution is advised. I realize that this is of little comfort to those of you who may have lost a loved one in such a tragic event. Nor am I trying to minimize any real negligence which may exists. I'm only trying point out the high degree of professionalism to which many in this industry adhere.

That's why, when the air traffic controllers in Chicago and other places state that they feel there are very serious problems with the FAA's new software, we had better be listening to what they are saying. So had the FAA - their pablum PR press releases notwithstanding.

-Arnie

-- Arnie Rimmer (arnie_rimmer@usa.net), December 01, 1998.

Besides, we often forget that the gutty guys and gals up front have the same vested interest in demonstrating a soft landing as we in the back do, and THEY will certainly know more about the state of the aircraft and the industry.......

C

-- Chuck a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), December 01, 1998.

Sara, Hi!...Look at the faces 0f the Captain and Crew as they board...if they are smiling, the 'butterflies' will go to sleep. As Chuck, a night driver has said, they have a vested interest in demon- strating a soft landing to everyone in the back. After all, they will be the =first= to arrive at the scene of any accident!

\/\/illis in OKC, OK 12/01/98

-- Willis (BANDIT1@ontheroad.com), December 01, 1998.

Relative to driving the Philadelphia expressways, quite safe. However, the FAA is replacing its large IBM mainframes used for regional ATC work after a year of j***ing off. There supposed to be done by 9/1999. These are enormously complex "heavy iron" systems that form the backbone of the continental long distance air traffic control. IMHO, short of multiple clonings of Infomagic, Cory H (and perhaps me) these FAA clowns haven't a clue and will not get these systems up and running in time. There are also some problems in new radar systems being pushed into place because of Y2K. I expect some "confusion" in ATC over the next 12 months. The odds of some burning, twisted alumminum decorating the landscape WILL be higher. I just can't say how high. http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/98/11/biztech/articles/28comp.html http://www.suntimes.com/output/news/faa14i.html

-- RD. ->H (drherr@erols.com), December 01, 1998.

Don't know about the USA, but the UK's antiquated ATC computer systems crash not infrequently, forcing the controllers back onto manual processing. This is definite cause for concern and has caused a few near misses over the years. On the other hand, it also proves that the job can be done manually if it has to be.

Statistically, as observed earlier, the car journey to the airport is more likely to kill you than the flight. Also statistically, you can prove that except on the immediate approach to an airport, if aircraft flew blind from A to B at random times and altitudes, collisions would be extraordinarily rare.

I don't believe that many, if any, airlines will have their planes in the air during the century switch. Too many unknowns. they'll plan on resuming normal service next day (to be reviewed in the light of what actually happens).

-- Nigel Arnot (nra@maxwell.ph.kcl.ac.uk), December 02, 1998.

Did you read the unverified stories on the y2k newletter??? Planes falling from the sky for real!! I don't fly anyway...even before y2k....LaBomba did me in!

DAC

-- deborah cunningham (dac@ccrtc.com), December 02, 1998.

Here's the latest media article I've seen on planes, flying and Y2K:

http://cnn.com/TECH/computing/9812/01/faa.y2k/

"Flying the unfriendly skies with the Y2K bug"

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), December 03, 1998.