I've been lurking here for months now... Thanks to all for the great tips.

I was watching CNBC last night and they were talking about a Champaign shortage brewing for 1999. I found the link and if you read it, you can see similarities between champaign and food, water, supplies, etc...

http://www.msnbc.com/news/226345.asp

Here's wishing for a New Year with minimal bump (hopefully)!

--Russell

-- Oh Boy (What's To Come@Y2K.com), December 30, 1998

Answers

That's quite a stretch to see similarities between the champagne supply and food, water, etc. I guess the most insignificant glitch will be blamed on Y2K from here on in, huh?

-- Buddy (DC) (buddy@bellatlantic.net), December 30, 1998.

Buddy, learn the f'n language

Great article Russell. Shows what can happen when you have unlimited demand and a finite supply. That is why the potential for unwarranted panic can cause VIRTUAL shortages which can then spiral this Y2K madness into a self fulfilling prophecy for the doomers.

Being a cynic of course I must say that grape growers and Champagne manufacturers pretty much knew the millenium was coming and probably made allowences and extra plantings or whatever it is they do. Wouldn't surprise me if publicists for the wine growers planted this story to to create a VIRTUAL shortage thereby getting the issue before the consumer who otherwise wouldn't give wine a thought for another 12 months. I know I never thought of champagne but while I was reading it I'm going yeah that's right.

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 30, 1998.

Buddy

Why would it be a stretch to make the comparison? Look at what would happen if you substitute "Champagne" with "food" or "water" or "supplies".

"Its as if the whole world wanted to celebrate Thanksgiving on one day, where would the turkeys be? Thats the kind of thing that we are facing here," -- If the whole world wanted to purchase food and supplies on one day, where would the stock be?

Theres just no more space in the cellars, no more grapes in the vineyard and in the U.S., El Nino has affected the harvest -- What kind of effects do you think the weather has on the world's food supply for the coming year? Is there enough storage space in warehouses to stock enough food supplies for all?

The shortage has led to hoarding by some retailers and customers. -- Already, some bakeries in my area no longer give or sell their buckets. It seems that they (or their employees) anticipate using them. Also, all of us who are currently purchasing food in anticipation of the coming problem are already doing this (although there is no CURRENT shortage, there soon will be).

Aaron predicts even the mid-priced champagnes that run about $30 a bottle could be hard to find, and difficult to buy in bulk. "There could easily be shortages of basically the whole range of champagnes from the mid-range right up to the $200 bottles," he says. -- This could happen to food, water, and y2k supplies next year as demand picks-up.

This is the similarities I see with Y2K in this article. Which I why I intend on having purchased these products before that time comes.

-- Russell

-- -- Oh Boy (What's To Come@Y2K.com), December 30, 1998.

Seems to me that you could make good money by stocking up on champagne NOW and selling it for twenty times the cost price, a year from now.

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 30, 1998.

Give up Leo. You're never going to be rich. What you suggest is illegal and not very well thought out.

If you bought 1000 bottles of the Dom p. at $145 per bottle. That's $145,000 cash. I don't think there's a futures market in Dom P and nobody is going to loan you 145 large to buy wine for the black market so therefore the vig would make Master Card blush. On the other hand the shylock with the 145 can also supply the juice for the authorities, the storage and the distribution. My first question to you would be: If this is a good idea why does the money guy need you. Contrary to popular belief most connected guys are pretty stupid so lets say you find a backer. The vig is $7250 (5%)per month, payable monthly, we'll add a grand a month for storage. Next December you got to pay the police, politicians, and other assorted crooks. 20 grand sounds about right. Distribution 10 grand.

$145,000 for product; $87,000 for the vig; $42,000 for overhead.

Your nut is $274,000 or $274.00 per $140 bottle of wine. IMHO a 100% markup is too low for that effort but we have to be realistic so let's assume you can move it all for $500 per bottle. That's $226,000 profit of which your partner gets 50%(you saw Goodfellas right?) leaving you $113,000. A nice bankroll to be sure but the sticking point here is the $7250 per month. Here's my idea. Don't forget you're illegal anyway.

Take the first $7250 and buy some coke on the street. Cut it 50% giving you about 10 grand in coke. Turn it 24 times in the year or twice per month. Work out of your bedroom, and take nothing out the business except for an occasional hit. Buy no food; eat your Y2K stash of rice and beans. In July you'll probably have to start paying a few people off but only a couple hundred a week to the local bulls. Without compounding anything; just keep selling the same 10 grand you'd have enough to hop on a plane to Tahiti on 12/30/99 and live happily ever after. I guarantee you Tahiti is Y2K compliant.

If you have a moral problem with coke you could do it with grass but then you have the same storage/volume/distribution/protection problem you had with the wine.

Or you could put a grand in ebay and buy Tahiti around next April.

Have a Nice Day

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 30, 1998.

Saying it is illegal to resell goods at a higher price later is not just wrong, it betrays a terrible misunderstanding of the way a free market works.

-- Declan McCullagh (declan@well.com), December 31, 1998.

Jimmy, you are a complete imbecile. Obviously you are a heavy user of both cocaine, grass, alcohol AND amphetamines.

--Leo

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 31, 1998.

Leo,

while it's both quite legal, and quite possible to do what you suggest (though not neccessarily at a 20x retail price increase) you might want to consider priorities of purchase. Champagne is generally considered a luxury item. As such, should there be problems with the currency system, or should other supply systems (i.e. food, water, fuel, etc) become overextended/tenuous, you could well end up with a big time bunch of bubbly with no market. Folks who drink this stuff everyday have cellars full of it, and the ones who drink it once or twice per year may be spending the money on other things, come this time next year, no?

just my 2 cents' worth, Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), December 31, 1998.

Why do I bother? Listen up!

YOU NEED A LISCENSE TO RE-SELL LIQUOR. DUH!

-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), December 31, 1998.

Are you yet another graduate of the Milne Charm School, Jimmy? How can you trust a guy bearing doughnuts to give a valuable commentary on the state of champagne? Nothing personal, Mr. Bag.

I do agree with Milne, BTW, so don't even think of starting that thread again.

I disagree that bubbly will lose value by virtue of being a luxury item. Human beings are not completely methodical or practical. We take shorts cuts (Y2K Happens) and we crave treats in times of stress (ask any chocoholic).

I have my wheat, my beans, and my seeds. I plan to have a little chocolate, wine and champagne, too. No doughnuts planned, at this time.

-- Sara Nealy (saran@ptd.net), December 31, 1998.

Sara, what do you agree with Milne about?

Jimmy, I do not intend to open up a bottle shop. Moron.

--Leo

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), December 31, 1998.

Leo,

I agree with Milne's overall assessment of the situation and with his frustration, though not always with the way he expresses it. Here is an essential expression of his frustration with the "fix" supposedly going on...it encapsulates my thoughts as well. Essential Milne, quoted from a Dec 20th post:

"...It is not even possible to accurately contemplate the enormity of the scope and magnitude of the problem let alone fix it in time.

The most collossal project ever undertaken by mankind, under no central authority, complete lack of coherent organization except on a totally decentralized basis, miniscule budgets, millions and millions of companies not yet started or even aware, underestimated manpower, low pay, no standards for fixes, every government wildly behind, and yet enough is magically going to be done on time.

24 months just dwindled down to 18. Where did it go? Did things get demonstrably better? No. Things are getting worse. 18 will dwindle to 12 in the blink of an eye. Will things appear better? No. More slippages will be announced. More fancy footwork by the mouthpieces rendering excuses like brackish water to be lapped up by the naive.

And then it will all cave in and everybody will sit there 'stunned', incredulous, unbelieving that such a catastrophe could have happened with all the 'dedicated' hard work."

It's the realization of waste, of the inevitable loss of life, and the absurdity of the "actions" of officials and companies now that angers and frustrates me. That's where I agree with Milne, Leo.

-- Sara Nealy (saran@ptd.net), December 31, 1998.

And on that point, Sara, I agree completely and totally with you and Milne.

-- Leo (leo_champion@hotmail.com), January 01, 1999.

Maybe the new Y2K advertising phrase will be "Got Chocolate?"

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), January 01, 1999.

Sara,

Thanks for the post from Paul, it is very hard to fault his logic (isn't it Mr. D'nuts?). I've been away for a few days, but Mr. Jimmy is determined, I see, to subject us all with his old levels of charm, wit and repartee, paraphrased in his "Godfather" confessional above.

James - ever see the end scene in Casino, the desert?

That's you, that is, Mr. Businessman, the shovellee...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), January 01, 1999.