Some assumptions on disruptions to guide preparationgreenspun.com : LUSENET : Millennium Salons : One Thread
I'm preparing for 5 years disruptions.
For safety's sake and in order to prepare fully I'm assuming:
One year of intense civil disorder/war, beginning sometime mid to late 1999. I'm assuming that pockets of working electricity and telephone will happen, but nearly all to all of these pockets will extinguish over the course of two years. I'm assuming that food production, processing, and distribution will be disrupted early in 2000, with an eventual stop by late 2000. I'm assuming there will be terrible disease outbreaks brought about by stress, lack of food, lack of clean water, and lack of sanitation. I'm assuming that our Natl Govt will be non-effective and will disintegrate by late 2000. I'm assuming that normal commerce will be disrupted and a barter system evolve. I'm assuming that long distance travel will cease due to lack of fuel and clogged routes around major population centers. I'm assuming that air travel will be minimal.
The following are for just this country but hold for all the national and private players of these materials and systems:
I'm assuming environmental problems brought on by oil, gas, gasoline, diesel, coal slurry pipeline SCADA failures. I'm assuming environmental and locally deadly problems brought about by failures in chemical synthesizing plants, and by petrochemical processing plants. I'm assuming at least one petroleum related failure which will result in massive ocean pollution.
I'm assuming at least one chemical warfare & one bio warfare facility snafu which will be deadly. I'm assuming at least one nuke fuel/warhead final processing plant will have a deadly accident, and at least one long term storage facility will experience lack of maintaince resulting in waste spill of magnitude. I'm assuming that at least one nuke plant will go deadly. I'm assuming that there will be more than one accidental launch of nuke war material with possible, but less probable, explosion. I'm assuming there will be at least one major deadly accident involving nuke sub reactors (less probility domestic, higher foreign). I'm assuming that there will be more than one riverine system and associated ocean and current which will be deadly contaminated by nuke accidents.
I'm assuming that there will be at least one purposful nuke exchange within one year from now. I'm assuming at least one terrorist attack with larger scale deadly force on mainland US between now and summer 2000.
I'm assuming that one, or a combination of several of these potential problems will kill me.
I'm doing everything in my power to survive any/all of these potential problems.
-- Mitchell Barnes (firstname.lastname@example.org), January 16, 1999
The more I research the way our systems work and the way they are interdependent the more reasonable your assumptions seem to me. Do you have the resources to really prepare for these eventualities? I don't know how anyone can afford to prepare for nuclear winter, radiation from large numbers of nuclear meltdowns, or widespread biological warfare. So I don't expect to do so. If those happen I think we are all done.
As for the other eventualities, we may be able to be more effective. Are you planning a refuge? If so, see the Question: "Looking for a Y2K Refuge?"
-- Bob Podolsky (email@example.com), January 28, 1999.
I have to concure with some of your deductions. I'm relocating to an island north of the coast of Australia. Bali, I've lived there for 17 months and belive the effects will be felt but to the other end of the scale. Look into this as a possiblity to being at gound 0. A Y2K community is under way now.
-- charles buck (firstname.lastname@example.org), February 26, 1999.