I live in the Austin area and there was a story on our local news the other night that said Austin could expect possible brown-outs this summer due to the intense growth in population this area has experienced. The city officials are telling us that the power providers will be maxed out this summer just meeting normal demands for this area. My husband contacted L.C.R.A. and they sent him a nine page report stating that they were looking for alternate sources of energy to meet the increasing demand in this area. My question is: won't the Y2K thing be the straw that could easily break the back of this areas utilities since they are already working at peak production?

L.C.R.A. (Lower Colorado River Authority) stated in their report sent to us that they get 62% of their power from coal shipped from Wyoming. And they get 32% from natural gas. 5% from water (hydroplants), and and a small fraction from windpower.

I'm sure my questions are naive, but I'm in the music business, and am trying hard to understand our electrical supply situation. Not very savvy on this stuff.

Thanks for all your help. I know the gentleman from Spain wanted more technical discussion, but we still need the layman terms for people like me.

Thanks, Linda

-- Anonymous, January 22, 1999

Answers

I receive power from LCRA too and I'm also concerned about LCRA's power production. LCRA sent me a November NERC status report that showed only 40% remediated and tested. On the subject of capacity, I think that you are very smart to ask that question. First, which TV station made that comment? Can we get a transcript or reference? LCRA is launching a set of community meetings this spring. The first is Feb 2 in Giddings and I'm planning to be there. Last summer, our small community (that buys all its electricity from LCRA) was within a few percentage points of maxing out our built capacity. The city utility manager said a few more days of heat and we would have major problems with both electricity and water.

We are supposed to have excess capacity in the state of Texas, but I don't know where it is located. During our peaks last summer, I was watching the demand loads that are posted every few minutes. Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Austin ... all were very close to maxed out. The Lubbock and Amarillo area has experience periodic blackouts the last two summers due to water well and air conditioning loads.

Rick, where is all the excess capacity that the utilities talk about? I'm sure that we have plenty of excess in January, but what about in July?

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999

The subject of the steadily declining ratio between power generation and demand in this country has been rather overlooked because of focus on Year 2000 problems. Last July, Dick Mills wrote about this in an article called, "Keeping The Lights on in 2000 - Who's In Charge?" The article is at: http://www.y2ktimebomb.com/PP/RC/dm9830.htm

Readers should focus on the section after Mr. Mills makes this statement: "The third thing I noticed was that we are heading for a period of very serious power shortages even without Y2K." Look at the NERC Capacity Margins Trends chart provided. It's an eye-opener. In another column, "Power Yes, But At What Price?" Mr. Mills also said he had purchased a wood stove " because I fear that we might not be able to afford to use so much electricity."

I would summarize the problem this way:

1. IRREGARDLESS of Y2K, the growth of demand for power has been exceeding the growth of generation and will continue to do so for at least the next ten years or more.

2. Various parts of the country have already experienced supply problems during peak summer demands and these problems can only get worse. This last summer there were utilities which had to warn customers to reduce electrical usage or there would be blackouts. NERC statistics show this problem will continue and increase in severity.

3. The price of electricity can only increase as the supply decreases and the demand increases. It also takes major capitol outlays to build more generating facilities, and we won't even go into the time frame for permits and paperwork to be completed to allow the building of other generation plants. Our individual electric bills will go up in the years to come.

4. If our economy is negatively impacted by the economic troubles in other countries, or the Year 2000 problems cause or aggravate an economic downturn (litigation post Y2K being one example), then utilities will be impeded in implementing the expansion of their generating capacity. Costs will also be passed along to the consumer. This is an inevitable effect in any free market economy.

5. End result: The days of U.S. citizens being negligently profligate in their consumption of electrical power are OVER. For instance, air conditioners in summer will have to be set at 78 or 80 degrees, not 72, or turned off altogether. The conclusion is that whatever preparations an individual makes to reduce their dependency upon, or use of, electricity can only benefit them in the next decade - EVEN WITHOUT TAKING Y2K DISRUPTIONS INTO ACCOUNT.

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999

I noticed this news release about dual coal suppliers for LCRA ... at least a step in the right direction! The coal shortage in 1997 pushed them into action. This dovetails with "62% of coal from Wyoming" claim.

--------------------------- For Immediate Release, Jan. 6, 1999 On Sunday, January 3, a large diesel engine pulled 115 cars of coal into the Fayette Power Project in Fayette County. The train, operated by Burlington Northern-Santa Fe, signaled the end to the Lower Colorado River Authoritys decade of reliance on coal deliveries from a single coal hauler. The LCRA, which owns and operates FPP, now has two competing rail companies bringing coal from Wyoming to the electric generation plant: Burlington Northern-Santa Fe and Union Pacific. Its the latest outgrowth of LCRAs long-term strategy to fuel its power plants from a diverse number of suppliers. Our policy is to seek a diversified fuel mix from competitive, reliable suppliers, said Dan Kuehn, manager of LCRAs fuels office. Weve have now accomplished that with our rail transportation of coal.

Under a contract approved last fall, Burlington Northern-Santa Fe now delivers 30 to 40 percent of FPPs coal requirements. These rail shipments will help the LCRA better maintain the plants inventory of coal, even if deliveries from Union Pacific are delayed, a situation that occurred beginning in 1997. LCRAs production costs increased during 1998 because of untimely coal deliveries from Union Pacific. In early 1998, the LCRA curtailed electric generation at FPP to conserve coal, but the LCRA, which also owns power plants fueled by natural gas and hydroelectric generators on the Colorado River, managed its costs so that no cost increases were passed on to its wholesale electric customers.

[snip]

-- Anonymous, January 29, 1999