Last summer when I first found out about the y2k thing I said "Oh bullshit" we wouldn't let THAT happen! (denial), then I proceeded through the predictable stages of , anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance. Mind you, acceptance of an ugly scenario doesn't miraculously make the scenario wonderful or non-ugly. It just means you accept it. So what did I accept? Something on the order of potentially very bad mixed with a lot of "nobody knows for sure". It's very much like an extended weather forcast. The result for me was a fair bit of anxiety.

What helps me most is to do some preparing. My first steps were, and still are to some extent, to prepare myself and immediate family for just about any disaster that commonly strikes; i.e. hurricane, tornado, ice storms, etc.

Setting a goal of getting the things I'd need for a week or two was a reasonable one. Pick up a few extra cans of this and that, pick up some candles, etc. I started late last summer. For some things I've got months worth or more. For some things I've placed orders and I'm waiting on delivery. For some items I'm still looking. I just keep getting better and better prepared for what may come.

Some emergency supplies will be with me for many years to come and don't require an emergency to be useful. Lantern, stove, and other gear that I can take camping or on other outings. (I'm something of a quality freek so I buy good stuff that I'll want to hang on to anyway.)

Anyway, the point of this is that preparing for the emergencies we should all be prepared for anyway is very good therapy for confronting this y2k thing. You get productive and your morale goes up. Y2k puts a deadline on the preparations. From some perspectives it's not as bad as say a hurricane that might be coming your way.

Around here, the Southeast, when we get a hurricane warning, or a threat of snow or ice, it seems everyone goes to the store and stocks up. Everyone wants to prepare for the coming disaster in a matter of hours. At least we've got almost a year to go as of this writing.

Oh yeah, I spent a little time talking to friends and family. Not much help there really. Quite non-productive. I feel okay that I've mentioned it to them, they see that I'm doing something about it, but I'm not pushing or nagging at them. I'll just keep on doing what I can and keep monitoring the situation.

It helps for me to treat this like a coming storm. We know with certainty it is coming. We do not know how bad it will be, much less how bad it will be for each area it passes through. Utilities being one area that expects to get hit hard is like the beach communities expecting to get hit hard by a hurricane. Because of the social factors involved we don't really know exactly when the storm will get rough. Grocery stores could be empty a week or two before the big roll-over date.

It might be big, it might not. Should I be prepared for emergencies? Certainly! Hurricane Hugo knocked out basic services at this house for three weeks. No water, no electricity, no phone... It sucked. It was an adventure. It was struggle. It was nice to be in a position to help rather than in the position of needing help.

When the y2k emergency is over I hope to pack away my lantern, stove, etc. to have on hand for the next emergency.

Thanks for the forum.

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999

Answers

Steve,

I do a lot of interviews on the Y2k issue. The question that invariably gets asked at some point is:

"So Rick, how bad is this thing going to be? How bad is Y2k going to hit the electric utility industry?" The interviewer is usually poking around for a worst case scenario, and looking for me to prognosticate specific information on the severity of long term power outages. Here's the analogy I like to use (similar to yours):

There are two things I know with a certainty:

1. Y2k will hit on January 01, 2000
2. There will be some degree of disruption to your life.

Here's what I don't know:

Using a weather related analogy, will the disruption be the equivalent of a 2-inch snowfall or nuclear winter?

Now, let's say I'm a weather forecaster. And I know for a certainty that 342 days from now, there's going to be a weather event that disrupts your life. I don't know if it will be a 2-inch snowfall or nuclear winter, but I know that my life and yours are going to be negatively affected to some greater or lesser extent. Knowing that this event is certain, and knowing that your life is going to be disrupted, you'd pay a lot closer attention to the weather report on the evening news. And being the forward thinker that you are, you'd start planning for the disruption now, rather than fighting the little old ladies at the food store for that last half gallon of milk in the dairy case 12 hours before the storm is supposed to hit.

There are always going to be people who say, "The weather forecast is never right. It probably won't be any more than a bit of rain." They won't buy a snow shovel or cache some extra canned goods in the pantry. Those folks will just go on with their lives, but still secretly hoping that the event, indeed, turns out to be much ado about nothing. As the date of the storm approaches, they know that they're gambling against the weather forecast, and they are not ready for a 50-inch snowfall followed a day or two later by the ice storm of the century. These are the folks who will be in the food store clearing the shelves the day before the storm hits - just in case!

And then there are the folks who never listen to a weather forecast. If they go outside in the morning, and the sun's shining, they don't bring the snow boots to work with them, blissfully unaware that a major winter storm is about to hit. These are the folks who will be perplexed and panic when they slog to the store with the storm in full force, and find that the store is either closed or that there's nothing on the shelves.

(rant mode=ON)

Maybe the electric industry in the U.S. will muddle through this thing due to a combination of last minute hard work and fortuitous good luck. I dunno. But what frustrates me the most is that I go into the bowels of power plants and switchyards, see what's out there and what they've actually accomplished to this point, see the frustrations that the local plant people are dealing with, and then I read nothing but happy faced reports from the industry. Something's not right.

Either I'm totally missing the big picture, or the data being reported at an industry level is so watered down as to be unbelieveable. You make the call. *Everyone* needs to make the call.

(rant mode=OFF)

-- Anonymous, January 23, 1999

Steve, I'm glad nobody can reach out and slap you here, because I've enjoyed your "rambling on". It always helps when someone expresses the frustrations almost all of us have experienced in trying to come to grips with whether the Y2K bug will be an irritating little beetle which annoys us or a 5,000 pound cockroach stomping down our street.

Everyone wants details. As Rick said, everyone wants to know exactly how bad - because everyone wants to know exactly how much to prepare. I don't think anybody, no matter how hard they study, no matter how much time they spend on research, will ever be able to uncover enough of the Y2K puzzle pieces to make a completely accurate prophecy about the future.

There is a system to be used, though, in trying to answer the "How long do I prepare for?" question. First, you forget the myriad details we have now and look at the major Y2K benchmarks of the last couple of years.

Two years ago Y2K was barely mentioned by government or business. Gary North was the considered the ultimate of doom and gloom kooks.

A year later, several Y2K sites had popped up on the internet, Rick Cowles was focusing attention on the utilities, Yourdon was considered by many to be a writer making money from fear mongering, experts in various aspects of remediation had joined the Paul Revere crowd, and they were all doing the verbal equivalent of using a cattle prod to get those Year 2000 fixes MOVING. North didn't seem all that crazy with his barrage of "too little, too late". And government and businesses promised "compliance" by the end of 1998 - with a whole year for testing. Not to worry.

Six months ago "compliance" had disappeared out the back door and "ready" had snuck in. Non mission critical systems had been disowned and mission critical systems had been coupled to the "ready" term like a marriage made in PR heaven. The big law firms already had "Y2K litigation teams" formed. Business and our Y2K Czar, Mr. Koskinen, were still affirming there was no cause for alarm and no need for anything so foolish as preparations. FEMA said their mission was to give aid after disasters had happened and ignored Y2K. Meanwhile North's site had become an everyday "must read" for many and food storage companies were doing a booming business. Suddenly the global implications of Y2K also gained in import, because "oops!" most of the Year 2000 talk in other countries centered around the wonderful millennium parties being planned.

Six months and a couple of weeks later and here we are. Other countries are making contingency plans, including mobilizing their military forces; Koskinen "has concerns" and admits his nephew has bought a generator; our Defense Department officials have been "talking to" other nations with nuclear powers about possible Y2K missile site disruptions; a few corporations have admitted they will be working through 2000 on fixes, or that project deadlines have slipped, and the media have finally wrenched their attention away from Monica and "discovered" there are people who think the Y2K problem will be BAD. FEMA has now urged communities to address Y2K "issues" and admits that some year 2000 failures might have "more serious consequences". The American Red Cross has issued a Y2K Disaster Preparedness Brochure, advising people to have up to a week's worth of supplies on hand. Gary North is looking pretty sensible to a lot of people.

Where does this overview bring us? To the Bureaucratic Snail Factor. I think it's probable that most everyone in this country recognizes some degree of reaction delay in the bureaucracy of our government and corporate entities. This is where each person has to come up with a number which expresses how long they think that reaction delay is. Take what you've observed over the years about the pace of government, look at the pace of response to the potential problems of Y2K, then decide how many months you think the bureaucracy is behind the information curve in admitting to anything which might have potential negative connotations.

Do you think the Bureaucratic Snail Factor (or B.S. Factor as I affectionately call it) rates about a 3 month delay? Or 6 months? 12 months? 24? More? Give it your gut level best educated guess. Got it?

Now take that Red Cross' one week of supplies recommendation and multiply by your Bureaucratic Snail Factor. Did you pick 6? Then you probably need at least 6 weeks worth of supplies to make you feel comfortable. Did you pick 12? Then 3 months of supplies is likely where you'll begin to feel an easing of your Y2K concerns. Pretty simple, huh?

Finally, before anybody hits me with that "Are you serious?" question, the answer is both yes and no. *laughing* Yes, because everybody wants a formula to use, and the B.S. Factor is likely as good as any other prognostication. No, because there's still no guarantee any formula will work!

Basically, folks, I figured it was time to have some fun and chuckle a little as long as we have to be stuck in the statistical swamplands together. Maybe somebody should tackle figuring out the rate of data "watering" going on to help Rick out. We could call it the Dilution And Reality Negation report. Or the Less Information, Easier Status methodology? How 'bout the Corporate Readiness Assessment and Prognosis formula?

-- Anonymous, January 24, 1999

Bonnie,

ROTFL!

Bonnie's Elegant Acronyms Unmask Tricksters, Ineffably Fomenting Unmitigated Laughter.

Jerry B

-- Anonymous, January 24, 1999