HELP! Is this article turgid regurgitated male bovine fecal matter? Or is it a factual scientific study which arrives at a correct conclusion? I really need to know so I don't become schizoid.

-- fly .:. (.@...), January 31, 1999

Answers

Uh, what article???? ben

-- ben (benalurker@usa.net), January 31, 1999.

Sorry, was distracted by my growling stomach. Thought I could gorge on this stuff but it was artificial.

http://www.ghsport.com/public/y2k.htm

Buzzing to the next pile.

-- fly .:. (.@...), January 31, 1999.

This isn't "good news". Its just a bunch of the same old happy face crap that has been spewing from the pollyannas for months. They say:

Our Predictions for January 1, 2000

By now you have guessed it, but for the record, here it is:

1) No significant utility failures (power, phones, internet, water, sewer, etc. will not be shut off).

EVIDENCE please.

2) No inadvertent missile launches; no airplane crashes; and only the usual daily attrition of microwave ovens.

Make a joke out of the issue.

3) Your television, VCR and computer will still work.

Downplay the significance.

4) What Y2k-panicked people will do, we haven't the slightest idea.

uh, riot, loot, burn, kill, starve, die...for starters.

Our Recommendations for Action in 2000

1) Don't leave your PC running during Y2k rollover (midnight on December 31, 1999). The first time you use your computer after rollover, check to make sure the date is correct. If not, fix it. (You can do this by opening the "Date/Time" Control Panel in Windows or by typing DATE at the DOS prompt.)

Yes, failure to do this may mean you will have to reload Windows 95 before you can play Quake again.

2) If your computer applications do anything that depends on dates, back up your data files and take some extra time to make sure things are being done correctly.

The world's banks will be doing this, but most of them will have no y2k compliant system to reload them onto.

3) You can read about other ways to protect your PC at http://www.ghsport.com/public/y2k2do.htm -- but these advanced safeguards won't be worth the effort for most PC owners.

Yeah...go back to watching the football game.

4) Don't forget to write the new year on your checks (00 will do).

This is the most important one. Everyone knows the catastrophes that result from getting the year wrong on a check.

So, don't worry - be happy. 01/01/00 will come and go like nothing happened. Ignore those government leaders and experts that are advising you to get cash and have a months supply of food and water. They just don't get it. They're scaremongers.

-- a (a@a.a), January 31, 1999.

Are you willing to bet your life and the lives of those you love against overwhelming data to the contrary of this web-site? If they're right, what'll you lose if you prepare? Maybe you'll just have a bit of extra food, water, etc., whatever. But, if you don't prepare and we're right, what'll you lose? Place your bet, NOW!

Not a gambler

-- Not.a.gambler (DiamondJim@Vegas.net), January 31, 1999.

I'm not a gambler either, I don't play the slots, lottery, or anything where I am going to lose money. I'm willing though to gamble on a 50/50 chance that the severity of a 7 on Y2K will happen. I don't have a thing to lose and everything to gain. I can use all that I have stored, and give some to my kids to make their life a little easier. I live in earthquake country and my odds are even greater than 50/50 for an earthquake to hit. I just don't want to be found wanting like those in Columbia. What I am preparing for is called being "prudent."

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), January 31, 1999.

Thanks fly. Well worth reading. It is better written than the average 'no big problem' argument. As a programmer, I understand, and in some cases, agree with their arguments. I do not agree with their conclusions however.

First, I realize that the authors were speaking to references in the press but I think we are wasting valuble time talking about VCRs, toasters and microwaves. They are quite correct when they state that most will work fine. But VCRs, toasters and microwaves are not the real issue here. Even if a tiny few don't work, so what? Not exactly life threatening. Let us keep our focus on the critical infrastructure (energy, communications, banking, transportation, etc.)

Much more problematic are the authors' arguments that, if taken to their logical conclusion, would suggest that even remediation is not needed. Indeed, it would seem that fix-on-failure would be plenty good enough for the vast majority of problems. This simply doesn't wash with me. Fix on failure may be a very cost-effective approach to take with your screen saver, but do you really want your local hospital taking the same approach? Or the FAA?

By making prudent preparations now for events which could (but may not) occur, we take personal responsibility for ourselves. We increase our own fault tolerance and that of the system of which we are a part.

No one can guarantee that there will be catstrophic disruptions. Likewise, no one will guarantee that there WON'T be. In light of the serious potential, personal and community preparation continues to make sense. If it turns out we didn't need it, try not to be too upset or disappointed. (Did you file a claim on your fire insurance last year?)

One statement really caught my eye:

Here's a very important point: It's not necessary to prove that an unprecedented future event will not happen. If there is no good reason to believe that it will happen, then, as a rational being, you owe it to yourself to assume that it will not happen.

On this they are quite correct. It IS an important point. Perhaps THE MOST important point. I happen to believe that there is no good reason to conclude that the vast majority of broken code will be fixed - therefore, I'm assuming it will not happen. What will be the consequences of this assumption if I'm right? It is quite impossible to tell the full impact at this point but there are many possible scenarios for which it is quite easy to be prepared (food shortages, energy production and delivery problems, etc. etc.) -- uh, that is if you don't wait until the last minute to do so. And the consequences if I'm wrong? In that case, I guess I won't have to file a claim with my "Y2K insurance provider".

I believe that there are hundreds of good reasons to suggest that at least some disruptions will happen. I have no idea how severe or widespread they will be nor do I know for certain whether they will have a direct effect on me - I certainly hope not - but think the possibility exists. I also didn't know for certain when I got my flu vaccination this fall that I would be exposed to the flu this winter - possible the possibility existed.

I owe it to myself and my family to take prudent precautions. You see, if I am prepared, then I take control for the consequences OUT of their hands (i.e the companies and agencies who are fixing their systems) and INTO MINE where it truly belongs.

Whether or not these companies and agencies will be able to fulfill their promise (continuity of service) will not matter so much if I can throw another log on the fire, eat dinner, and wash it down with fresh water.

-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), January 31, 1999.

As an aside, are any of the other non techies out there disgusted every time they read that "you don't have to worry about losing your VCR, toaster, or microwave"? What a crock.

Like I care about that stuff. It is highly insulting to me, and assumes I am what people think I am.....a mere housewife worried about little things that might make it harder to cook or watch TV.

Puleeze!

Thanks to all the high tech regs here who do not try to dumb me down, but give me the facts....and please remember that just because I don't understand code or tech talk, it doesn't mean I am stupid. I DO get it. More than a lot of techs, actually.

Just a small rant :)....thanks.

Blessings...Mercy

-- Mercy (prepare@now.com), February 01, 1999.

Arnie wrote:
I happen to believe that there is no good reason to conclude that the vast majority of broken code will be fixed - therefore, I'm assuming it will not happen.

That sums it up nicely. The "unprecedented future event" that leaps out at me would be a systemic repair of enough code and chips, completed accurately and in time...

-- Grrr (grrr@grrr.net), February 01, 1999.