Hi,

I'm a newbie (lurker for 2 weeks) and I need help. My in-laws are wealthy DGIs with heavy investments in the stock market. I don't think they'll get out until the bubble pops, when there won't be much left of their investments. I don't think we'll be able to convince them to get out (we've tried). But new ideas would be helpful.

Barring that, is something like CEF (a gold & silver bullion share investment company) the best bet for those staying in the market? What other stocks could keep some value in a crash?

Any help would be very appreciated. Thanks!

-- Wondering (help@stocks.com), February 06, 1999

Answers

Suggest you tell your in-laws to follow Yardini's advise and be 100% liquid.

-- Tweete (anon@anonymous.com), February 06, 1999.

Agree with Tweete. Send 'em a copy of Yardeni's latest report. If they're serious investors, Yardeni talks investor-speak and they'll hopefully at least read it.

-- Mac (sneak@lurk.comn), February 06, 1999.

I have some friends in the stock market too. Told them they should have checked out when it reached 9600. Many think that it will pass 10,000 this year, but they're dreaming. We won't see that for years. It's all downhill from here. I predict by Dec. 31 of this year the DOW will be below 7500. Then after Jan. 1 when they realize that computer bugs are not a joke, we'll go back to the level it was at around WWII.

Don't know what to tell your family, except that they will learn the hard way. Seems to me that most people who refuse to get out either have a gambling addiction or they are just plain blinded by greed.

As the saying goes: "A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush"!

Live and learn? If only that were true...

-- (@@@.@), February 06, 1999.

Dear Wondering: If they get a bearish bent, or just want to hedge, there is always the Prudent Bear Fund. http://www.prudentbear.com. Even in an up market it's only lost a tiny percentage, and last summer in the correction it did about 27% in a couple months.

"Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered!"

Sorry! I'd have some nerve saying that to you if I hadn't done so bad in the market myself! (All it takes is one big, dumb move.) Good luck convincing them. If they're going to wait to the last minute (whenever that is) to get out of the market entirely, then some hedging is just the prudent thing to do. Like overstockpiling errrr, putting a few cans of food away ;-)

-- Debbie Spence (dbspence@usa.net), February 06, 1999.

The NASDAQ has taken a dive the past couple of days and the stock market was flat. But I keep hearing the "experts," say that the market will go over 10,000. So there are people like us yelling "we're sinking," and the "experts," are saying buy more, buy more. Who do you think your inlaws are going to believe? After all, they made money in market and anyone who is still in the market will continue to believe that it will always go up. The economy is good, unemployment is low, interest rates are low, people are buying big ticket items, so why would anyone want to believe anything different. If they listened to you and took all their money out of the market, and nothing at all happened in the stock market, they would blame you for the loss of money they would have made. Do you want to take that risk? You can show them Yardeni's latest report, but they will not listen. Rich people want to get richer, the poor have nothing to lose. JMHO

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), February 06, 1999.

Welcome Wondering; For my 2 cents worth,suggest they split their portfoilo, have your Mom take her money out and leave your Father's in . At least they will half of their money to play with and when the market goes down they will have that reserve of money to rebuy into the market at very low prices. see if this will make them start calculating more money. At least you will have made them rethink how to save it and get more later.. Good luck. Furie.... Ps. if they do that send me 1% of their earnings so I can take my wife out to Dinner, in Mexico....

-- Furie (furieart@dnet.net), February 06, 1999.

Furie must be a stock broker....he just asked for a commission. First of all you have to convince your in-laws TO GET OUT BEFORE THE BUBBLE POPS. Well good luck! They are wealth, the know when the bubble is going to burst, they won't need you to tell them what to do because they are smart enough to know where to put it. And they should pour all their wealth into the stock market if they know when the bubble will burst! Furie, quick, maybe you need to get to know these wealthy people and ride the wave to wealth! Maybe some insider trading heh!!!!

-- Golddigger (Golddigger@wealth.com), February 07, 1999.

Golddigger; Nope not a stock broker! Try again at : http://home1.gte.net/furieart/ not anyone special. But why if they are so wealthy,not half their money and stocks and then be able to restart again when and if the maket goes back on line??? In the crash of '29 people lost everything, like play LasVegas, you win and pocket half,so you can play agin without loosing all... Furie...

-- Furie (furieart@dnet.net), February 07, 1999.

Furie, do you live in California? Just curious!

-- Golddigger (Golddigger@wealth.com), February 07, 1999.

Thanks for all your ideas. Hopefully they'll at least think about Yardeni's advice. Furie has a good idea, too. Appreciate your ideas.

-- Wondering (needhelp@stocks.com), February 07, 1999.

Golddigger, nope lived in the Palisades for awhile '66-'67 checkout the site and email me... at my addres (I'm not afraid of messages from people ) Use this address from my post.... See Ya. Thanks Wondering I know you care about Mom and Dad !

-- Furie (furieart@dnet.net), February 07, 1999.

Wondering;

[My standard legalistic disclaimers inserted]

Another vote for the approach suggested by Furie is that when the bears demonstrate very clearly to the bulls exactly what is meant by the term "mountain oysters" they will still have some chips to play with.

Just a thought.

S.O.B.

-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), February 07, 1999.

Wondering,

You might find some useful, investor oriented, Y2K related discussions and/or links at:

http://www.millenniuminvest.com

I have not studied that sites' investment recommendations; I suggest it simply as a site that may help DGI investors begin to get it. Once, (if) they do get it, there are all kinds of things they might do, perhaps including liquidating, buying medium term notes, buying put options, short selling or whatever. (This list is not a set of recommendations; just a mention of a few of the many possibilities).

BUT, investors, whether wealthy or not, who have seen stock prices climb and climb in recent years, and then quickly rebound after the recent "correction", seem to have almost unlimited confidence that recent trends will continue on and on. You will most likely have great difficulty persuading them otherwise until some major event, whether or not Y2K related, shakes that confidence. The problem for each investor will then be that that event may shake the confidence of many other investors at the same time.

Good luck,

Jerry

-- Jerry b (skeptic76@erols.com), February 07, 1999.