Really, folks, you gotta read this one. It's amazing.

Newspaper editors know that most people read most news stories in a cusory manner. They read the first paragraph or two or MAYBE everything up to where it takes you to another page. Then they move on to another story.

On page one of today's NYTimes is this article:

http://www.nytimes.com/library/tech/99/02/biztech/articles/09panic.html

"Year 2000 Bug Meets People Problem: Surprisingly Early Outbreak of Panic"

(I'm not going to go into TOO much detail here, you really should read it for yourselves. But here are a few choice quotes)

It starts out on page one with typical things like this:

"As it becomes clear our national infrastructure will hold, overreaction becomes one of the biggest remaining problems," said John Koskinen, chairman of the President's Commission on Year 2000 Conversion.

While surveys show most Americans do not expect their lives to be severely disrupted, a significant minority say they are planning big investments of time or money to protect themselves. And the American Red Cross advises the public, as a precaution, to have enough food and other staples on hand to endure disruptions of several days to a week.

"Nobody wins if the public freaks out," said Cathy Hotka, the information technology specialist...

Some symbolic gestures have already been announced as well. Jane F. Garvey, head of the Federal Aviation Administration, has promised to be flying on New Year's Eve as a show of faith in the air traffic control system. British Airways announced that nearly all of its senior executives would also be aloft.

(OK, now the average reader has probably not gotten this far. They've already heard all this and don't feel like turning to page 17 to hear more. But, take the tease and the tone changes...)

...Thus, President Clinton's only Year 2000 remarks in his State of the Union address homed in on the need to keep working to reduce the risks. Koskinen says complacency is still at least as big a concern as overreaction.

"For some people, a certain amount of panic would help," Koskinen said.

Now, as the race to minimize the machine risks enters its last months, the Year 2000 glitch may test people's trust in one another as much as the reliability of their machines. Do they believe that the repair work has been sound and that most of what is left to be done will be finished? Will workers have the skills and dedication to overcome whatever computer malfunctions do occur? Will citizens be neighborly, rather than selfish? Will political and business leaders step in effectively at the right moments?

A tiny minority is already investing heavily in the belief that the answer to these questions is mostly no. Year 2000 alarmists, religious groups that see the computer problem as a pre-ordained divine punishment and survivalists fleeing for rural fortresses are producing measurable bounces in the sale of dehydrated foods, wood-burning stoves, home power generators and other goods at the fringes of the normal economy.

(granted, this is typical so far...)

More telling though is the number of Americans saying they are considering moves that would clearly be unnecessary if the nation's computer networks end up being as reliable as regulators and industry leaders are projecting. Polls show that around 10 percent of citizens expect to withdraw most or all of their money from banks. A Gallup poll in December found that 17 percent expected to buy either a generator or a wood stove.

Some consultants involved in community preparedness groups say those numbers are likely to rise sharply.

"It's reasonable to assume the population will get very nervous," said Douglass Carmichael...

Dealing with mass nervousness is more art than science. Consultants and Government officials preach that the best way to calm nerves is to make sure that customers and consumers are inundated with the details of the work being done to reduce risks. And many of those organizing on the community level agree.

"Statements have to be out there for people to jump on and research," said Margo King, one of a group of organizers who have helped make Boulder, Colo., a pacesetter in local preparedness planning.

But John Steiner, Ms. King's husband and fellow organizer, adds that even with more information, many people will retain doubts that could prime them for panic.

"On Vietnam, we listened to the people in charge for a long time and everything was going well, and then it wasn't," Steiner said. "The question is what is appropriate contingency planning if things don't turn out as we hope."

One way to head off nervousness may be to encourage those most likely to be worried later this year to go ahead and acquire now the supplies that would make them comfortable.

"There's sufficient information for people to say there's a substantial risk of disruption," said Charles Halpern, president of the Nathan E. Cummings Foundation, a New York-based foundation that has been providing funds for community preparedness efforts and lobbying other foundations to get involved in Year 2000 work. Halpern wants leaders from President Clinton on down to talk more often and more forcefully about Year 2000 risks.

"Overreaction now is so much preferable to overreaction in November that it's a risk worth running," Halpern said. "People who want to lay in supplies of canned vegetables can do it now without disrupting anything."

The drumbeat for early, locally based preparation to minimize risks and head off panic is coming from community groups, many of which have gone far beyond advocating stockpiling of necessities. Some suggestions have been ignored, as when Year 2000 organizers in Spokane, Wash., called for a "practice" day last month on which families were to do without such basics as electricity and running water to learn more about what they need to cope with worst-case scenarios.

Federal authorities are cautiously encouraging community groups like those in Spokane and Boulder, although they fear some of them may end up creating more alarm than preparation. Many have become distribution channels for planning materials such as those developed by the Red Cross and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which expects to publish by the end of this month new advice tailored to the Year 2000 problem rather than to natural disasters.

"People ultimately have a lot of common sense, so the real goal is to give them all the information we have," Koskinen said.

(Then, there is a sidebar where they print the Red Cross recommendations, including:)

Stock disaster supplies for a week

Start withdrawing cash early

Plan to use alternative cooking devices, have extra blankets, clothes etc. to keep warm

Be prepared to relocate to an emergency shelter for warmth and protection during a prolonged power outage or if local officials request or require that you leave your home for any other reason.

(So, there you go ! Do with this what you will...)

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 09, 1999

Answers

More schizophrenia of the purest sort! How can they warn against "Y2K survivalists" causing "panic," and print the sidebar with recommendations to "withdraw cash early" and have "alternate methods of cooking and heating?!" Henry Hyde quoted Saul Bellow yesterday in the Impeachment Trial summation: "a great deal of intelligence can be invested in ignorance when the NEED FOR ILLUSION is great." (caps mine) It will be interesting to see how this front-page piece (very valuable journalistic real estate, that) is transmogrified in the local 'fly-over' papers. With an utterly mendacious Executive branch, with a national security apparatus running amok, with darkling whispers of "home defense forces," and with the Establishment lapdog New York Times telling us that people who prepare are the real problem, what's a feller to do?

-- Spidey (in@jam.com), February 09, 1999.

Guys, I'm open to total correction, but I'm surprised at how positive the article is about preparation, not how negative it is. Am I out to lunch? Sure, there is the ridiculus title and the usual nonsense, but quoting Carmichael (who is a bona fide alarmist), referencing Spokane positively and including the Red Cross recommendations leave a positive meme behind.

This says to me that the government-media, at least if this article is not accidental, remains genuinely uncertain whether to encourage or discourage preparation?

And, it's always along the lines of bank runs: "will encouraging preparation lessen bank runs? Or lead the way to them."

BigDog wondering what everyone else thinks .... ?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 09, 1999.

Big Dog,

The problem here is that the part of this article on the front page is "don't worry, be happy." You have to turn to page C10 to get to the part where real suggestions are made. The editors know that the vast majority of readers will only read the first few paragraphs.

IF you do turn to page C10, the first thing you see is a photo of a couple stocking their storage area caption reads:

"Larry Shook and his wife, Judy Laddon, of Spokane Wash., stock their shelves - including pet food - in preparation for the Year 2000 problems. Last month they did a dry run to prepare for worst-case scenarios."

Now, you and I know how to find the tidbits of useful info here, but the average reader, the same people who enjoyed the TIME mag piece will be more affected by the beginning of the article, the way it's laid out and the over-riding propaganda value of the whole thing. I would bet that no more than two New Yorkers will cut out the Red Cross checklist and stick it to their refridgerators...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), February 09, 1999.

... at the fringes of the normal economy.

I just love this kind of patronizing writing. What a commentary on our society, government, and ourselves when the 'normal' economy is sugared water (Pepsi), Beamers, beef, and all the other harmful and uselsess crap that surrounds us. Meanwhile, Aladdin lamps, solar panels, hand well pumps, and so on are 'abnormal'.

Most worrisome part: "request or require that you leave your home".

What a flock of sheep we are !

-RC

-- Runway Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), February 09, 1999.

RC-

"Beef"?? That's my favorite health food.

-- rick blaine (y2kazoo@hotmail.com), February 09, 1999.

"...should have been called the 'Pogo problem'...after the cartoon character who said 'we have met the enemy and he is us.' Maybe the networks can dig up some animation of Pogo saying just this to end their agitprop clips. Incremental acclimatization: the PEOPLE are the enemy! Or, specifically, people who foresee a coming calamity and prudently prepare are the problem. We'll "inflict damage upon ourselves;" hey, I'm surprised they didn't list the danger of sustaining cranial injury from falling cans of ravioli--there oughta be a law! Seriously, my 'take' on reading the article is they are DEEPLY afraid of bank runs. (they?)

-- Spidey (in@jam.com), February 09, 1999.

"Be prepared to relocate to an emergency shelter for warmth and protection during a prolonged power outage or if local officials request or require that you leave your home for any other reason."

The following to be sung to the tune of the Beatle's "Yellow Submarine":

"We all live in a concentration camp, a concentration camp, a concentration camp..."

-- Why2K? (who@knows.com), February 09, 1999.

"Be prepared to relocate to an emergency shelter for warmth and protection during a prolonged power outage or if local officials request or require that you leave your home for any other reason."

Yessir, I'm prepared sir! I already have my "vacation home" ready and stockpiled sir...wha..? I'm supposed to go with you to YOUR shelter? What did I do wrong?? I'm an extremist and I caused all this because I have my own shelter already? oh geez...I had no idea...I guess I deserve to go to your concentration camp...

-- Chris (catsy@pond.com), February 09, 1999.

Thanks pshannon,

Douglass Carmichael, mentioned in this article, spoke at the Y2K Around The Bay gathering in Oakland this past weekend. It was good to meet him. Hes also an advisor to Koskinen and said he trades e- mails with him about five times a day. (Interesting, hummm?)

Im working on sorting out all the notes and hopefully can post a long report by tomorrow.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), February 09, 1999.

"Overreaction now is so much preferable to overreaction in November that it's a risk worth running," Halpern said. "People who want to lay in supplies of canned vegetables can do it now without disrupting anything."

Isn't this exactly what we were just talking about two days ago or so, on the "Panic: Inevitability and Timing" Thread? - Hmmm, what a coincidence.

-- Rob Michaels (sonofdust@net.com), February 09, 1999.

Diane --- Where is this mind-blowing series of posts that Leska has been promising on your behalf that you would let us in on??!!

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 09, 1999.

Limbaugh quoted this refvently - but I was not able to hear his comments clearly - anybody know what his spin was?

Remember, Limbaugh is one the more vocal criticas of the Clinton executive branch, but is also (deliberately) one of the most vocal Don't Wanna Believe It's - Because the American People Are Good Enough to Make It Through Anything". Curious difference isn't it?

At least (I guess) if you Don't Get It, it's better to DGI because you're an optimist at solving the problem rather than an ostrich saying "there is no problem" and "they have fixed it". The NYC headline favors the ostrich approach of leaving one's butt rather exposed doesn't it?

Now, leave his politics completely aside - what did he say?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), February 09, 1999.

BigDog, read carefully, this contains skull, bone, cloak & dagger tip-of-the-iceberg scraps for chewing and growling:

Military Test Exercises For "Urban Warrior" & National Institute for Urban Search and Rescue Web-Site

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), February 09, 1999.

Leska, where is the nearest fire hydrant?

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 09, 1999.

?????? BigDog ????

taken from Drudge

xxxxxxx xxxxxxx xxxxxxx

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), February 09, 1999.

Leska, sorry, bad joke and now I'm just taking up more bandwidth. I read the linked thread as per your advice and figured that I should go out, find the nearest fire hydrant, mark it and, well, you get the idea.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), February 09, 1999.

Folks, as a bit of perspective I'd point to the article at: http://dailynews.yahoo.com/headlines/pl/story.html?s=v/nm/19990209/pl/ guns_14.html

the title of which is: Georgia Passes Law Blocking Anti-Gun Lawsuits

the lines are begining to be drawn publicly ladies and gentlemen...the lines are begining to be drawn.

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), February 09, 1999.

>>"Be prepared to relocate to an emergency shelter for warmth and protection during a prolonged power outage or if local officials request or require that you leave your home for any other reason."

"Require" my hairy, dimpled butt! And come home to a gutted house? If I or my family are moved anywhere against our will, there's going to be hell to pay. And I know I'm not alone in this determination. Really! The sheer audacity of them anticipating such a "requirement" - who the hell do they imagine they're addressing? ..."Warmth and protection," helpless little ward of the State that I am... This is utterly VILE.

E.

-- E. Coli (nunayo@beeswax.com), February 10, 1999.

OK, E, here's where the rubber hits the road. A few young, polite, but hurried, armed, and nervous police/military gents knock loudly on your door and say the area must be evacuated. What do you do ? You've already lost the tactical advantage just in answering the door. You know your house is only concealment, not cover for the most part. These guys look decent enough, just following orders. Now, what do you do ? Remember these guys all wear body armor. They can breach your door in under 5 seconds blowing out the hinges with 3" 12 ga slugs. They have flash grenades, the works. Now keep in mind, they are young, polite. You have no power, sewage is questionable, maybe disease, rats who knows ? How are you going to refuse ? One refusal, one hesitation, one evasion, one lie, one second delay in immediate, polite compliance means you are a marked man. They don't have time for talk. There may be innocent people in the immediate area. What do you do ? These people are professionals, trying to be efficient and courteous. They don't like trouble-makers and people who talk too much or at all.

I'm not saying it'll really come to this, ever.

-RCat

-- Runway Cat (Runway_Cat@hotmail.com), February 10, 1999.

I've said it here before, I'll say it again.

Don't answer the door!

I never do, ya gotta call first if ya want to get into Deedahland. Also get yourself a "GO AWAY" doormat. It's fun to watch the "witnesses" talk it over; "Do you think he really means it?"

Yeah, I do!

-- Uncle Deedah (oncebitten@twiceshy.com), February 10, 1999.