Top Y2K news stories: April 19-23, 1999

Answers

Thanks, for the link, Kevin. The second story is worrying, especially for people and businesses with concerns overseas. A. John Pasqua, an AT&T VP in charge of the co's Y2K program says: "Internationally, it appears that the readiness has worsened. There has been a shift of some of these countries from medium to high risk." Interesting remark. How can readiness become worse? Surely at least awareness has improved since the last check was done. Does Pasqua mean their previous assessment or the self-reporting was wrong? The article reports Western Europe, North America, and the Asia/Pacific region are low to medium risk. Other regions, medium to high risk. There's also info about the readiness of the US system which has shown "great progress," except for smaller providers which "continue to fall behind." Again, how can they get worse?
Article No. 3 is good news. Russia is still cooperating with the US on Y2K, according to a Pentagon official. No. 5 is not so good. "The Rome-based Food and Agriculture Organisation said Y2K - which could throw computers around the world into chaos - threatened almost all of the supplies and services essential for agricultural production. 'Even small farms who till their fields with ox-drawn plows probably rely on supplies produced in high-tech factories and transported thousands of kilometers over computer-controlled transportation networks,' said the FAO."
There's an article about the White House report conceding that 7% of federal mission-critical systems missed the March 31 deadline. It said failures in key U.S. infrastructure such as power, banking, telecommunications and transportation are unlikely but some regional or local failures are likely. It occurs to me that if there are lots of regional and local failures we'll never know because power may be out and we can't pass the news on! There'll be little means of confirming or quashing rumors. Not a good thought. Same with the "minor disruptions" that might be experienced by the oil and gas industries, with 6% of critical systems forecast as being unprepared as late as Sept. 30. And we have to ask again, define "critical." And how many non-critical systems won't be ready?
In the same article is a remark that raises an alarm: "the administration said it anticipates no widespread or severe disruptions in the nation's food supply, in part because large grocery chains already carry several weeks' inventory in case of delivery problems or bad weather." Not in this town, they don't. (Hint: In some supermarkets the rest room is part of the storage area back in the store. Ask for it, go see the limited amount of space available.)
In a summary of reporting on the White House report, there's another worrying bit: There are "'significant concerns' about the readiness of the maritime transportation systems in the Middle East, East Asia, the former Soviet Union and Caribbean countries. It cited potential problems in the readiness of overseas ports, communication and navigation systems, and continuity of electric power." Also "some hospitals and other health care providers could have financial trouble that could force them to close because billing and reimbursement systems would not work." Another worrying remark by Koskinen: "there are probably going to be half a dozen to eight states that are moving too slowly and will not be ready." I hope K isn't relying on self-reporting to come up with those figures, because if he is then we're going to have more than 6-8 states with problems. And a warning note is attached: "those communities ought not to assume the state is going to show up everywhere, and certainly shouldn't assume the Federal Government is going to show up everywhere." So hadn't you better prudently stockpile some supplies?
There's a lot of info re Russian nuclear reactors but that's already been covered on the forum.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), April 25, 1999.

Old Git
Koskinen knows what is going on. Wait till July and we will hear all about the detials. He is just giving the situation time and feeding info out as he see's fit. I think it is his "deal". Really the only way for awareness to get out is to have Hollywood GI. There will be a time in the future when even Paul Milne will get sick of hearing about Y2K. I hear it all the time now on the local radio and TV Adds. Even a real heavy duty one from the Canadian Goverment. We even had a Stereo - CD chain say that folks should buy before the lights go out. This was a few months ago. The advertisement folk are picking on this big time. If people don't see it on the TV or hear it on the radio it will not happen. Mind you this is not real awareness but most folk don't live in the real world :o) Now when are those movies coming out.
Y2K is not a IT problem, it is not a Management problem, it is not government problem it is now a communication and understanding problem. And even those that have been looking through a few (thousand) sites still learn. The best part though is reading a post like Bonnies " Stocking just one week's supplies. Balderdash! " post. Some things change and some stay the same. But people communicating makes it "real". Just what kind of "real" are we going to create?

-- Brian (imager@ampsc.com), April 25, 1999.

Brian,
I read that September is the release date for one Y2K disaster movie. Another source mentioned November. 'Not sure about either. I may research this. Curious.
:)

-- FM (vidprof@aol.com), April 25, 1999.

"How can they get worse?"
SIMPLE: "We will need to do about 50,000 man-hours of work and need to buy about $2 Million in harware before 12/31/1999." (dated 1/1/1997).
"We will need to do about 60,000 manhours of work and buy $4 Million in hardware between now and 1/1/2000." (dated 1/1/1998)
"We need to do about 60,000 manhours of work and need to spend $3 Million on hardware this year. Obviously, we're in the market for consultants." (dated 1/1/1999).
The progression should look distressingly familiar.

-- chuck, a Night Driver (rienzoo@en.com), April 25, 1999.

Re the grocery stores having any inventory. You have but to speak to one of the stockers and you will know the trucks come in at night and it goes right onto the shelves. Last fall I went into WalMart and I ordered about 8 cases of soup. He told me when to come in and get it. It was like two days later. In the meantime the hurricane was moving into south Florida. I went to get my soup. No soup, shelves were very bare for our Walmart. The buyer wasn't there, so I went back two days later. Shelves had less on them. (hurricane wasn't anywhere near us). Finally I ran the buyer down and he was very apologetic but all WalMart deliveries had been rerouted to southern Fl. A few days later I went back in and got my soup and the shelves were filling up once more. So that impacted on us, even tho we were not near the hurricane area. What will be the impact if we have national or regional problems all at the same time. Jan 1 comes in the middle of the winter and who is to say that the blizzard of the century is not going to be roaring in from the north at the same time?
Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), April 25, 1999.

Remember what was quoted from innumerable sources about six months ago? It was said that the average city actually had no more than three days of food on the shelves. But now we're not going to have a problem because the stores have 3 weeks on their shelves? What store is that?
I have not seen one grocery store with the building space additional to the retail space to carry one whole week let alone 3+ weeks on their shelves. That quote sounds like somebody assuming there's a magician behind some curtain 'somewhere over there.'
I'm familiar with many grocery stores' stock areas. Most of those stock areas have nothing but large-size (toilet paper for example) or large-volume (coca-cola et al.) in them, some misc. areas, and a few big things that aren't kept on the floor (e.g., swing sets). Everything else goes from the truck pallet to the retail floor, at night, where it's put up.
Ordering is done by a JIT system that essentially only orders what has been used (with some exceptions for often pre-programmed curves related to season), the orders are delivered almost immediately (within 48 hrs) and as mentioned, go to the floor, where there's room for them because the order covered approx. the same amount sold off the shelves.
If you go to any given grocery store, pick a general-foods item (the major types of consumables) and ask the manager how often this product is delivered. For all basic foods the answer is generally "daily." Every 2-3 days for most other items. It's possible that stuff like soy sauce and sugar-free health bars don't come in so often, but if the main stuff isn't available, whatever of that is around won't feed too many.
PJ in TX

-- PJ Gaenir (fire@firedocs.com), April 25, 1999.

Sorry, Chuck, I should have been more specific. What I meant was, if a business hasn't even begun assessment, or they've done assessment but not remediation, how can they get worse from that? They can stay the same or improve. That says to me that either the business lied in the first place, which lie has since been uncovered, or they woefully underestimated their remedial needs in the assessment phase. Either way, it's a problem.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), April 25, 1999.

you folks are pretty paranoid and out there if you think big bussiness would actually LIE!!Obviously,business and goverment are trustworthy,or why let everybody report their own progress without third party verification.jeeze,what a cynical bunch!!
"Those that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety." (Ben Franklin)
"If you believe everything you read, you better not read." (Japanese proverb)
"It is better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt." (Abraham Lincoln)
"In my opinion, the greatest single failure of American education is that students come away unable to distinguish between a symbol and the thing the symbol stands for." (Paul Lutus)
"If you're in a bad situation, don't worry it'll change. If you're in a good situation, don't worry it'll change." (John A. Simone Sr.)
"Be the change that you want to see in the world." (M. K. Gandhi)

-- zoobie (zoob@aol.com), April 25, 1999.

Old Git:
I think Yourdon explained this pretty well. We're in a marathon race. There is a finish line (being compliant enough), and there is a deadline (not being compliant enough when you need to be). Imagine a little mechanical rabbit running along at a rate just fast enough to hit the finish line right at the deadline. If you're trailing that rabbit, you've got problems, you need to catch up to that rabbit. If you're falling further and further behind that rabbit, you've got BIG problems. You're still moving forward in an absolute sense, but you're losing ground compared with where you need to be.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), April 25, 1999.

State spends $127 million to be Year 2000 compliant
By Barry Smith
Freedom Raleigh Bureau
RALEIGH State officials are spending $127 million and putting 155,543 total workdays into making sure the states computer network will function properly on Jan. 1, 2000.
At the end of March, we were standing at 80 percent ready, said Debra Jones, director of the statewide Y2K Project Office.
The states computers run about 1,200 applications, Jones said.
State Auditor Ralph Campbell said the state has identified 129 computer applications that are mission-critical to the operation of state government.
Some computer systems in the Department of Revenue, the Department of Health and Human Services and the Department of Crime Control and Public Safety are not yet Y2K compliant, Jones said. She said DORs tax-entry system should be ready in November
DHHS computers, which aid in determining eligibility for benefits such as food stamps and Medicaid, should be compliant by September, she said.
Crime Control and Public Safetys computers are waiting for upgrades and should be Y2K functional by December, Jones said.
Computer systems that are already compliant include the governors office, the Department of Corrections, the Office of State Budget and Management, the Secretary of States office, the State Auditors office, the Department of Community Colleges and the Department of Labor, Jones said.
The Department of Public Instructions salary administration application is Y2K ready, Campbell said.
Jones said one of the biggest problems for Y2K technicians has been making sure that embedded microchips are going to work properly. She said microchips are embedded in equipment such as elevators, traffic lights, medical equipment, automobiles and law-enforcement equipment.
Its been much harder to put our arms around it, she said.
She said state departments are required to come up with business operations plans and contingency plans in case computers fail next January. For example, some agencies are printing out hard-copy reports before January.
Departments will have a plan to have extra people come in to work to print out payroll checks if a computerized payroll system fails.
Even some of these solutions can cause additional problems, Jones said. For example, manually printing payroll checks will take up a lot more office space than printing them electronically.
And state officials admit that trying to solve the Y2K problem is an inexact science at best.
I dont want anybody to think there wont be any problems, Jones said.
The only certain thing about the year 2000 problem is the uncertainty, Campbell said.

At least they seem upfront about the situation. I've enjoyed and learned from reading everyone's posts and am interested in your opinions on this article as I live in NC.
mb

-- mb (mdbutler@coastalnet.com), April 25, 1999.

PJ, Here is an interesting essay on "The Food Supply"
mb

-- mb (mdbutler@coastalnet.com), April 25, 1999.

http://www.arkinstitute.com/99/up0424.htm
Here's the link

-- mb (mdbutler@coastalnet.com), April 25, 1999.

Local grocery stores do not normally carry 2-3 weeks worth of backstock...Its the regional warehouses that carry the goods -- I worked for a large chain in Texas, while attending college, as a stocker and eventually a assistant grocery manager. Had the chance to visit the regional warehouse in San Antonio (it was huge - just one arm of the warehouse was 500 - 700 yards long) so its not too hard a stretch to assume that they could carry 2 weeks worth.

-- (ntesla@hotmail.com), April 25, 1999.

Couple of points to keep track of:
If the initial report was "50,000 man-hours and 4 million dollars, but it was based on "a hope and a guess", then the actual could be "80,000 man-hours and 6 millions" after assessment finishes - so they got further behind. Test begins, and the dollars go down (less chip failures than expected) but the schedule and man-hours go up again - because testing took twice as long as expected. Scedule was March 31 - now it "should be" July 30". But they still aren't done.
Also: its very apparent that ONLY critical systems are being included - and until everything runs okay (or enough run okay to keep these stable) - they really don't know what systems are critical, and which are just "essential to do the job." Thus, what was thought to be only a 15 month job stretches to 18, 19, 20, ...

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), April 26, 1999.

mb, hate to bust your bubble, but. . . I know someone who works for NC state gov in an agency not even mentioned up there. That someone is not doing Y2K remediation but has accidentally found Y2K bugs in a program checked as OK. You have to wonder how many more are checked OK when they're not, and how many people would have the initiative to go ahead and fix the program (like this someone) instead of resentfully muttering something about the parameters of job descriptions.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), April 27, 1999.

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