De Jager article in Scientific American (Jan 1999) : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Peter seems to have forgotten what he wrote for this periodical. Or possibly he is writing to a different audience. Since his elitism is fairly obvious I vote the latter view.

Scientific American January 1999, Vol. 280 Number 1

Y2K Bug: How to Fix It, What to Expect By Peter De Jager

Excerpted for educational purposes only

(the last two paragraphs of the article)

These are huge efforts (the afore mentioned projects at AT&T, CIBC bank Canada, IRS), but if people have learned anything about large software projects, it is that many of them miss their deadlines, and those that are on time seldom work perfectly. To deny this is to forget the lessons of past software debacles, including the computer fiascoes at the Atlanta Olympics and the Denver International Airport. Indeed, on-time error-free installations of complex computer systems are rare. The excruciatingly painful aspect of Y2K projects in that the deadline is immovable.

All that said  and considering other factors, including the amount of work already completed and the planned contingencies and compromises people will have to make as the century turnover nears  I believe that severe disruptions will occur and that they will last perhaps about a month. Additional problems, ranging from annoyances to more serious issues, will continue cropping up throughout 2000. This prediction might be optimistic; it assumes that people will have done what is necessary to minimize the number of single points of failure that could occur. Accomplishing that alone in the time remaining will require a Herculean effort unprecedented in the history of computers.



Peter must be taking Prozac(tm) now. He's feeling MUCH better about the situation. But *AWAY* back when he wrote this article he was feeling kinda down and doomish-like. One can only wonder why he didn't see a counselor earlier.

His best case scenario ain't none to good. And with his caveats emptor'ed its a lot worse than he's willing to say to yer face. He just infers it for the intelligent reader.

And when people - in general - (that is those people who have no business to know about these things) started to become concerned and began to act (Jan - Mar 1999) then he and all the other elitists decided it was time to throw a little water on the gang to cool them off. So they have successfully dampened the enthusiasm of easily dampened portions of the crowd (one third of the 31% who were seriously concerned have changed their minds for the moment). Yet they have a hard core of realists to deal with (20%) who did not allow the happy face reports erase their memories of substantive information and reasoning which brought them to the point of saying "Ummmm, I think its not going to be a good time".


-- David (Connecting.Dots@Information.Net), May 14, 1999


why won't people accept the fact that THINGS CHANGE? DeJ is changing with the FACTS. unlike certain "10's" that we know [who want the world to collapse] Pete can view FACTS and respond accordingly. shit, why is that such a damn problem for GI's to understand? I dropped from a 9 to a 7 and am currently at 5; am I also on prozac or some shit? the power grid testing is phenominal, embeddeds are a very low occurance. banks telco, JIT...they are all shaping up. not "there" yet, but looking up. Is it so bad to accept some good news?

-- longtimedoomer (nowmore@moderate.ithink), May 28, 1999.

"the power grid testing is phenominal, embeddeds are a very low occurance. banks telco, JIT...they are all shaping up. not "there" yet, but looking up. Is it so bad to accept some good news?"

Not at all, however you seem to be looking at this very parochially i.e. your state, then your country.

Now if you take the world view (leaving aside that WW III is inches away and the American public is seemingly not even interested in this fact) you would have to be way higher than a 5.

Is it a case of I'm alright Jack - here in my own backyard? I don't think you're thinking things through. Oil. Shipping. International Air traffic. Poisonfire. International Banking. Just a few things you seem to have, as JagerMeister has, forgotten about or ignored.

-- Andy (, May 28, 1999.

BTW I sincerely think JagerMeister has been leaned on or bought.

-- Andy (, May 28, 1999.

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