Y2K PROBLEMS CAN ONLY LAST FOR 3 TO 7 DAY

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IF MAJOR Y2K PROBLEMS (POWER, WATER, TELE) LAST FOR MORE THAN 7 DAYS, WE MUST PREPARE ON THE LEVEL OF ED YOURDON AND GARY NORTH TO HAVE A CHANCE TO SURVIVE THIS.

THE AMERICAN CONSUMER WILL CHANGE THEIR PRIORITIES FOREVER. IF DISRUPTIONS LAST FOR MORE THAN 7 DAYS.

THE HOME WE LIVE IN, WILL APPEAR TOO LARGE AND IMPRACTICAL. (NO MATTER WHAT SIZE HOME WE LIVE IN TODAY)

THE CAR WE DRIVE WILL APPEAR TOO FLASHY. (AS LONG AS IT STARTS AND WE CAN FIND FUEL IS OK)

A BIKE WILL BE JUST FINE.

THE THINGS WE WERE MADE TO BELIEVE IS IMPORTANT WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE VALUE.

THE WORLD ECONOMY IS BASED ON AMERICAN CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, ONCE THAT CHANGE, AND OUR SPENDING HABITS CHANGE. OUR LIFE STYLES WILL MAKE THE 1930 GREAT DEPRESSION LOOK LIKE A BACK YARD PICNIC.

OUR SO CALLED STRONG ECONOMY IS BASED ON OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE FUTURE. (PURCHASING THINGS ON CREDIT)

THE AMERICAN POLITICIANS HAVE CONVINCED THE WORLD TO INVEST IN THE US ECONOMY, AND THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS RESPONDING BY PURCHASING EVERYTHING WE HAVE BEEN PROGRAMMED TO DO.

WE MUST BELIEVE THE 3 TO 7 DAY DISRUPTION, OTHERWISE, OUR PREPARATIONS?

CALL ME A POLLY/DOOMER, MY PERSONAL POSITION IS WHAT EVER GET YOU OUT OF BED IN THE MORNING IS ALRIGHT WE ME. I HAVE NO RIGHT TO JUDGE A PERSON BASED ON WHAT GETS HIM THROUGH THE DAY.

-- Arthur Washington (ARTWASH@webtv.net), May 20, 1999

Answers

Hi Art,

1. welcome! but please TURN OFF THE ALL CAPS - in a text based environment like this, using all caps is how people show that they are shouting.

2. I'm sorry I don't understand your 'we must believe' statement. If you choose to believe something like that, and it later proves wrong, what is your backup plan? what do you have to fall back on.

Arlin Adams

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 20, 1999.


You will probably be ridiculed by the pollys for your opinion, but you make a good deal of sense. When the depression hits, just as the tide of retiring baby boomers is coming in, there will be a lot of Milne's "gnashing of teeth" as they discover the $1 million they had in their retirement account does not exist anymore because it was all based on an electronic "promise to pay" by an overextended and now defunct banking system.

-- a (a@a.a), May 20, 1999.

THE AMERICAN CONSUMER WILL CHANGE THEIR PRIORITIES FOREVER. IF DISRUPTIONS LAST FOR MORE THAN 7 DAYS

What about all the Depression-era people, who after the Depression and War became the first suburban Levittown over-consumers in the first place ? If their psychology had been changed forever by the horrors they'd experienced (according to your theory, Arthur) everybody in the 1950's should've been living like the Unabomber, in a shack in Montana...

-- Blue Himalayan (bh@k2.y), May 20, 1999.


According to GN, the montreal ice storm didn't have a noticeable impact on the sale of wood stoves. I'm guessing the folks who don't think Y2K impacts could happen are prepared to believe they won't happen again... I don't think 8+ days is anywhere near long enough for the societal changes A.W. is suggesting.

-- Brooks (brooksbie@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

Thanks for beating me to the ALL-CAPS notice, Arlin.

I'd be more curious to understand THIS statement than why anyone MUST believe the 3-7 day thing:

THE AMERICAN POLITICIANS HAVE CONVINCED THE WORLD TO INVEST IN THE US ECONOMY, AND THE AMERICAN PUBLIC IS RESPONDING BY PURCHASING EVERYTHING WE HAVE BEEN PROGRAMMED TO DO.

I really wish the American politicians had convinced someone to invest in the U.S. Economy, as in purchasing American-made products versus those made more cheaply overseas....but that's a thought for another board.

I'm more curious about this statement that we've been programmed to purchase things. I can see T.V. ads promoting to CHILDREN that they NEED certain things, and I've had many a talk with my kids about why they didn't need whatever it was the ad stated they "needed." Outside of children, however, I don't know how thinking adults can be programmed to purchase ANYTHING.

I'm a lot like Mr. Decker in this respect, I guess. A working used car serves my transportation needs. I've never purchased a lottery ticket in my life. The T.V. only comes on when there's something we want to watch. All errands to the far side of town are saved and done in one trip to save gasoline. Where is this programming?

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 20, 1999.



B.H.

actually he does have a bit of a point - as anyone who grew up around people who lived through the depression can tell you. My late father, for instance, never threw away anything that might prove handy later. He used to drive my mother crazy back in the days when we still had to haul our own trash to the dump. Father had a deal with the guy who ran the dump, and who would look for useful stuff that people had thrown away...especially hardwood furniture and the like which could be refinished...sometimes we'd come back from the dump with as much stuff as we'd taken...just not the same stuff. (As a kid I thought this was really neat.)

On a more general level, it took until well into the 1960's before the concept of consumer credit once again began to take off, in part because of the distrust of financial institutions by those who had lived through the depression. So we may not know the extent to which serious y2k problems will mark and shape the current generation, but I do think we can expect to see at least some lasting effects.

just my 2 cents' worth on that one,

Arlin

-- Arlin H. Adams (ahadams@ix.netcom.com), May 20, 1999.


Blue H,

interestingly, I believe that the suburban consumer mindset that you allude to was in fact a direct response to the Depression and WWII. Luckily, we got through it all and won the war, and people were weary, and just wanted to enjoy the chance to relax. In the 60's, a lot of young people who grew up in that said "wait a minute! This isn't right, we're destroying the planet, and there's more to life than this." Didn't last long, however, and now consumerism is obviously rampant.

IF Y2K causes major supply disrutions, ARTHUR may be onto something. The seed has been planted, and while for the vast majority of people, it will be difficult to impossible to break the cycle, IF the cycle is broken (for reasons beyond our control) maybe some kind of confidence other than consumer confidence will take over as a prime motivator.

Simplistic, obviously, but there is more to life than consumption, and maybe some people who don't think much about it will discover what some of those things are. I guess if there's room for hope in all this mess, that's where it lies...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), May 20, 1999.


Hi,Arlin, I guess I am carrying on your father's tradition.Went to the dump this weekend with the rubbish and came back with an almost new propane stove & oven.Young couple that dumped it redecorated their kitchen & the stove was the wrong color!Paid 21$US when the same model is still selling for 750$.

-- Chris (griffen@globalnet.co.uk), May 20, 1999.

Please read the "Finding Y2K Prep Time" article on my just-revamped website (http://y2ksafeminnesota.hypermart.net). I think that 90+% of the things I suggest in it now (for finding time & money to prepare) will unavoidably become policy for the vast majority of people next year. Who will buy electronic amusements if they have no source of electricity? Besides, if you didn't stockpile food, and you don't have enough purchasing power for food, there are not too many other things that will be considered for purchase for a millisecond. Even activities that Y2K in theory will not interfer with and might possibly encourage, such as assembling jigsaw puzzles, may not be done by all that many people in 2000. If we lose the use of most of our labor-saving/efficiency-increasing devices, then people may find themselves working far more than 40 hours (presuming work is available at any wage above zero) a week to earn any significant purchasing power at all. I recall elderly relatives speaking of 6-day work weeks, 14+ hours/day in the worst of the Great Depression. If that work is anything close to manual labor, who in that situation would have energy/interest in much of anything besides sleep, food, and drink? When I personally have had more than one job at a time, even though none of them were outside/back-breaking types, that is how it was for me.

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), May 20, 1999.

A major difference between the canadian ice storm and any y2k disruptions might be in the physce of the individuals being effected...ie....during any recent ice storm we generally knew the cause of the propbem, we understood the actions necessary to correct them and we were confident that the powers to be were in fact "on the job"....can the same be said of a y2k type problem....where is the fault? how long to locate? what kind of fault?do we have the manpower , materials,methods and skills available to correct.....If a y2k problem shows up i doubt anybody will know where to start looking..at least with ice and lines and poles and trees we can rapidly identify the source.

-- john o'brien (jsob1944@aol.com), May 20, 1999.


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