To the regulars on the forum...

Has anyone heard anything that would indicate that Ed may be leaving now as opposed to later because things are pointing to an earlier rather than later start of a decline in all things? I know I read some of the Polly's saying that maybe he listened to the ""good Senators"" and things are looking so up that...but Ed says not. But rather than promote an early panic, he is leaving now to complete preps. I am sure there are things that he can't say out loud just as others can's say things like naming companies etc. Just a little nervous about him leaving now - with 6 months to go. Is there something afoot that we haven't put together yet that would give an early indication to an early start to the downhill?

Just wondering...

-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), May 30, 1999

Answers

Valkyrie,

Three links on Y2K from late May of 1999:

"Shattered! Compliance hype crumbles as new data reveal the truth"
http://www.y2knewswire.com/19990523.htm

60 Minutes Transcript
http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=000sP7

"Banks Stocks Plunge on Y2K Worry"
http://www.wired.com/news/news/business/story/19844.html

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 30, 1999.

Lots of predictions have been made for problems in July, not all connected with y2k. This maybe war thing for one. Seems like getting final preps done in June if possible might be prudent.

-- y2klady2 (y2klady2@nowhere.com), May 30, 1999.

* * * 19990530 Sunday

First:

I agree 2000% with Ed's assessments and "Sayonara, Y2K"... Programmers can/should see the Y2K "handwriting" on the corporate/government walls... Those that "don't"--can't and won't... *sigh* The consequences will rest on their conscience-- assuming they actually have one--and with the fate of their loved ones and communities...

To the point:

IMHO, there is a building nervousness about July 1... fiscal year rollovers for a lot of entities ( governments and corporations )...

The closet doors will spring open big time then... employees won't be inclined to continue their timidity about what's going, and been going, in the Y2K "back rooms."

I see things going down hill from there... markets crshing, evaporating confidence... global mass-panic should begin at an ear- shattering, teeth-gnashing pace.

...

All preps should be completed by July 1, 1999... personal defense plans worked out--in place--,too.

Then brace to witness the wildest "ride" in human history, brought to you by Y2K... through Y2K... and beyond "the other side" for many, many ( ugly ) years to come...

Just my US$0.02...

Regards, Bob Mangus

* * *

-- Robert Mangus (rmangus@hotmail.com), May 30, 1999.

"U.S. Credit Unions Get Special Y2K Liquidity Boost"

http://infoseek.go.com/Content?arn=a3062reuff- 19990524&qt=liquidity&sv=IS&lk=noframes&col=NX&kt=A&ak=news1486

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 30, 1999.

Hhhmmm, Robert, logically that scenario makes sense, but TBTB have exerted pressure to prolong Biz As Usual for As Long As Possible. Don't think any other date-related snafus will be leaked until the Big One 1/1/oh oh blows the cover on the beast. And then, with communications down, electricity down in places, folks "in charge" will take advantage of Systems Down to try to cover up the damage.

Not that it can be completely covered up, as its manifestations go on & on & on & on & on.

As unbelievable as it was to imagine in 1998, it looks like it could be possible for the herd to snore right up through New Year's Evil. And then, wake up to no call.

xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx xxxxxxxx x

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), May 30, 1999.

"Attention shifts from repair to Y2K disruptions"

http://www.mercurycenter.com/premium/business/docs/y2k30.htm

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 30, 1999.

Come July 1st 46 states and many countries throughout the world roll over to fiscal year 2000. It will be interesting to watch the results unfold.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

April was the month that Y2K awareness went way up worldwide, kind of like the way it did in the U.S. in November 1998. In July, many large companies are going to be taking a hard look at which of their vendors are compliant and which aren't.

-- Kevin (mixesmusic@worldnet.att.net), May 30, 1999.

As I mentioned in the "to be continued" thread, I am just back from a vac., and some quiet time, so no big failure quotes, but...A good friend at a large bank in the Albany N.Y. area told me that I was correct in noting that their computer is often down several hours each week. She wondered aloud to me that she didn't know what the problems "upstairs" were. (I make daily business deposits) My parents pulled a large amount out from another Albany bank last week, and the desk lady had a surprisingly friendly and frank discussion with them about y2k. She stated that the banks were hard at work in the U.S., but that even they were worred about a world meltdown!!! As stated before, warm wishes to Ed, and thank you. Someone drop me a line if a new address is needed for the list, even if it stays here at the moment.

-- churchorganist (swedemusic@webtv.net), May 30, 1999.

I thought Ed Yourdon would hang in there at least until Autumn or the Great Mass Panic, which ever comes first. I think his departure is ominous news. His classification of many Americans as being "indifferent" to Y2K is very perceptive. Too many are too wishy- washy. Their indifference will be their undoing. Ed is not going to waste any more of his time with indifferent b***heads.

-- dinosaur (dinosaur@williams-net.com), May 30, 1999.

Valkyrie:

You said: "But rather than promote an early panic, he is leaving now to complete preps."

Is this REALLY what he said?

This is what *I* read:

"As for me, it's time to get back to providing for my family." - from the Sayonara article.

"Henceforth, I'll be focusing on the software engineering technologies that occupied my time and energy prior to Y2K. This site will gradually be revised and updated to reflect those activities." - from the statement introducing the Sayonara article.

I don't know Ed's personal details. He may very well have a job outside the Cutter Consortium. Whether he does or does not is none of my business. We DO have to make money to provide for our families, though, right? Our employers (or clients) wouldn't think highly of our being constantly absent to pursue a personal goal.

That's MY take on it, not to mention that the IT community in general is looking at Ed as pretty much a Kook these days (right or wrong.) If he wants to be hired post-Y2k, he needs to concentrate on his reputation as a computer consultant again and sever his association with the Y2k "movement." He's done his part to wake up remediation efforts. He's done his part to wake up preparedness efforts. Now it's time for him to get back to his livelihood.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 30, 1999.

Anita Spooner commented with regard to Ed Yourdon:

"and sever his association with the Y2k "movement."

If this isn't Liberal hog wash I don't know what is.

Anita, when I read your inital posts to this forum a few weeks ago I said to myself here comes another one!!

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

You're right, Ray. Anita gives every indication of speaking from experience, thinking before posting, and not drawing conclusions without information.

People like that must drive you nuts!

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 30, 1999.

Flint, does my heart GOOD to see you on the defensive.

You have done more here to MISLEAD folks than all of the other SHILLS combined.

I'm going to be watching closely to see how you folks SPIN the facts that will be arriving shortly.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

Ray, if the problems could be solved by personal attacks totally devoid of substance, you'd have saved the world by now. I don't know what you think you stand to gain by attacking those who are actively engaged in making your own world a better place. Can you explain?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 30, 1999.

Flint commented:

" I don't know what you think you stand to gain by attacking those who are actively engaged in making your own world a better place. "

Now this has got my interest. PLEASE tell me specifically WHO you are talking about here.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

Ray:

I've been fixing some y2k bugs in firmware. Anita and Hoffmeister are doing this for a living. And for this, we get called shills and our observations are called hogwash? Has it ever occurred to you that we might know something you don't (and can't, since you can't listen)?

And yes, we'll continue to do this despite your efforts. Maybe you'd feel better if you fixed a few yourself. And if people like us are successful and fix enough of these, your life will probably be better.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 30, 1999.

Am I the only person on this forum who has been reading Flint's posts with "an accent that decidedly reminds me of a male Cosmetologist from San Francisco"? Nothing personal Flint, I've been a hairbender for 22 years and some of my favorite co-workers have been men (sort of). Sorry, that thought just tickled my funny-bone and I felt compelled to share. Really though, try putting different accents with posts from certain folks (like me perhaps). It makes thier comments a whole lot easier to tolerate!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 30, 1999.

flint commented:

"And if people like us are successful and fix enough of these, your life will probably be better. "

Flint, I think it is GREAT that you and Hoffmeister and Anita are working on y2k projects. PROBABLY is the operative word here. I find it surprising though that you have SO MUCH spare time on your hands.

All of this aside, nothing you have said here will change my mind as to what you and a few others here are up to. It won't work Flint, never has.

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

Will continue:

What a wonderful observation! My wife will love it. And maybe she'll stop saying "don't you men ever think about anything *else*"?

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 30, 1999.

Flint,

I know you've faced mored florid, testosterone fueled vitriol from Milne than the examples above. I just wanted to say that I've very much begun to appreciate your posts and their application of reason & critical thinking to issues that tend to overwhelm me with my own personal fears. Thank you!

-- flora (***@__._), May 30, 1999.

flora:

I can't see the future any better than anyone else, I'm just not so good at talking myself into believing I can.

Just watch out for "all roads lead to disaster" reasoning. Like, some companies aren't spending much on remediation, so that indicates we'll have problems. Some are spending a LOT, so that indicates we'll have problems too. Some have spent most of their remediation budget, so that shows we'll have problems. And some haven't spent much of their budget yet, so that shows we'll have problems too. Some government reports raise real concerns, and that indicates we'll have problems. Conflicting government statements must be lies, so that shows we'll have real problems too. We read about successful tests (GM, FAA, banks, Wall street, etc.) and that proves that every test we *don't* read about must be either too late or covered up, so that shows we'll have problems too (and that the tests we *do* read about are PR stunts and don't count). If a company isn't reporting contingency plans, that shows we'll have problems. Some *are* detailing their contingency plans, and that shows we'll have problems too.

Combine this line of 'reasoning' with the implicit conviction that anything less than 100% compliant equals 100% failed, and you can really get carried away. There *will* be real problems, don't get me wrong. There are still all too many dark corners with y2k, but that doesn't *necessarily* mean there's a monster hiding in every one of them. Keep reading, and keep preparing.

-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), May 30, 1999.

Flora, I must agree with you. Flint has always had such a wonderful way with words, and so many of them at that. It's always been his condescending, big-brained posts that have soothed me into a tranquil coma every time I've needed it most as well. Now....let's conduct a brief reality check. Fear is good. It tends to get people off the couch (and perhaps the Internet) and go out to plant a garden, because it doesn't matter who "thinks" what, any more. If you think you're scared now, just wait until you can't find a roll of toilet paper in a tri-state region!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 30, 1999.

Let's see Flint: you think the work is getting done, but buy a can of tuna (just in case....it's a prudent thing to do). You sir, should consider running for President, you'd fit in right nice back there! It does appear to me as well, that you have LOADS of "fund-raising" time on your hands. Hmmmmmmm

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 30, 1999.

Yada ...Yada .... Yada....

Your Pal, Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

Not to start a ruckus Will, but maybe we all should watch the condescending stuff. I feel many of us could have much more to worry about than TP.

Like nine posted awhile back, the worry was taking a toll on my teeth, even. {Nine, if you're reading your dentist can fit you with a nightguard, cheaper than broken teeth & worn gums!}

Now don't think I'm leading the cult of Flint here, his posts used to drive me crazy--one of my favorite Milne posts was about him naming his pigs--but Flint's logic and search for clarity have really helped me get a better grip.

It's a scary time, after Ed's bombshell & the forum hiccup last night I just wanted to say thanks to y'all for this year of lurking. I think there are many others out there who would second.

What is that old saw about 'you have something to learn from everybody'?

PS - OT - does anbody know what happened to E. Coli's old post about "bugs in my rice & beans" ?

-- flora (***@__._), May 30, 1999.

Right flora, TP IS my only consideration....I had to donate my 5000 rounds of .22 catridges to the local Boy Scouts last week, to free up more room for my rolls of stay-puffed Charmin...haaaa stop it flora, you're killin' me!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), May 30, 1999.

Ed has given more than most would give to help other people. Me thinks it was the reaction from the senate (none) and the fact he has put in so much time , that made him come to this conclusion.

-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), May 30, 1999.

Hey, Ray:

I was just asked to leave that Doc Paulie forum also. I guess NOBODY likes what I have to say. SHEESH...I guess I could end up simply working on my garden and scrubbing floors on weekends now.

Anita

-- Anita Spooner (spoonera@msn.com), May 30, 1999.

Anita,

FWIW, my guess is that many here like much of what you have to say, as well as the ways that you have of saying what you do say, for example, your pointing out in another thread that your observations in a particular area may not correspond to what may be happening in another area.

As for guessing about Ed's timing, or about other aspects, such as unmentioned motives, of his recent announcement, I'll refrain from contributing to that activity.

Jerry

-- Jerry B (skeptic76@erols.com), May 30, 1999.

Anita,

Don't worry about Doc Polly ( he's not a doc, just wants people to think he is ), don't let him run you off, if no one else posted there it would just be cpr and Doc talking to themselves. Don't upset cpr to much though, he will build a file on you and threaten to turn it over to the FBI. I notice you came back here, good choice.

-- CT (ct@no.yr), May 30, 1999.

Anita commented:

".I guess I could end up simply working on my garden and scrubbing floors on weekends now. "

Just got finished mopping and sealing our hall and kitchen this weekend. Seriously though from what I have read and heard the past week or so I think it is time to get down to some serious preparations.

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), May 30, 1999.

So Ed Y threw in the towel. Son of a gun - here I was busy all yesterday and today and missed the excitement.

Look folks, despite the common opinion of CEO's and such, they are familiar with the web nowadays. So Cutter is making a pitch for business, and the CEO decides to take a look at their website. So then he looks at Yourdon's site. So then he reads all the Y2K stuff and comes over here. NOT good for business - either he thinks Ed and Co are - err - I think you get the idea (I do try to be polite on the Web.) or he wants to know why they are trying to get a two year contract when they are hooked up to all this stuff saying it is all going to Hell in 6 months! Not the kind of thing the marketing guy wants to talk about.

-- Paul Davis (davisp1953@yahoo.com), May 30, 1999.

Vanguard Offers Guidelines for Y2k-Concerned Investors

-- Which way (the@wind.blows), May 30, 1999.

Well,

That's MY take on it, not to mention that the IT community in general is looking at Ed as pretty much a Kook these days (right or wrong.) If he wants to be hired post-Y2k, he needs to concentrate on his reputation as a computer consultant again and sever his association with the Y2k "movement." He's done his part to wake up remediation efforts. He's done his part to wake up preparedness efforts. Now it's time for him to get back to his livelihood. -- Anita

Somehow, I doubt very much Ed is viewed as a kook especially since he was the only one (out of Yardeni, North, DeJager, et. al.) to be asked to give Senate Testimony last week.

Hes more than likely being called in by big organizations who need him now, because they require additional assistance or because all the money theyve spent , so far, isnt enough, in some critical cases. And, perhaps hes tired, of the continuing government spin. (Dont blame him).

In terms of Eds Sayonara, Y2K message. I trust him to say, EXACTLY, what he means. (He certainly has the track record of doing so). Find it at...

http://www.yourdon.com/

See also, BigDogs take...

Parsing Ed's Statement (Long) -- Then On With It

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id= 000tJJ

(Just my humble opinion. Paul Daviss comments are pure speculation too. Just READ Eds words, not ours. He can speak for himself.)

Has it ever occurred to you that we might know something you don't (and can't, since you can't listen)? -- Flint

Flint, that statement can be said of most everyone here... in one way or another... programmer or not. Could even make a case for Eds prior computer systems experience.

Just watch out for "all roads lead to disaster" reasoning. -- Flint

True. Its just that we dont now which roads will lead to the need for more preparation, and which wont... globally, and locally. So, as a result, its far better (and wiser) to prepare, than not... everywhere, IMHO.

I guess NOBODY likes what I have to say. SHEESH...I guess I could end up simply working on my garden and scrubbing floors on weekends now. -- Anita

Not so , Anita. Sometimes you have some great things to say. Other times you need to do more homework. But that can be said of ALL of us posting here. At least I commend you for trying to grapple with the big, bad Y2K monstrosity.

Next topic...

BTW, in the interests of new forum etiquette could we please only attack the message, and not the messenger?

Pretty please?

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), May 31, 1999.