this was a very depressing read. i don't believe that any of us will feel very optimistic after reading this.

electricity is just one of the components mentioned in this grisly scenario. i did a post along these lines several months ago, it was an analysis written for, i believe, the nei... not sure.

i got this on another list... supposedly it was on yourdon's forum. all i know is that this is very depressing.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/rc062199.html

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

Answers

This OT article is on the extreme end of pessimism. And that's comming from an extreme pessimist. There are several statements of fact which simply don't hold water. I can assure you that the Majors have not adopted a fix on fail strategy with that big a cash stream. That being said, how much dive time did they reasonably have to complete an enormous task for thier offshore production.

Pipelines have been working hard on this issue for many months. They don't get paid if they don't move product. That being said, most of the North American pipelines are extremely exposed to the vagaries of local power and telecoms. Both of which can and do stop the lines from time to time.

Refineries are also working hard to remediate this problem. I have attended several API meetings and I can tell you that a lot of work is being done and a lot of money being spent. That being said, refineries are extreme complex environments which are highly dangerous during "normal" operations. They are highly exposed to electrical disturbances or other unplanned events. They don't tolerate sudden change well.

As far as the oil goes. It's exceeding unlikely that NO OIL will flow to the US for six months. There are areas of uncertainty, but I think to state that no oil will make it here is mightily irresponsible of this author. That being said, there WILL be serious disruptions to imports. My guess is that W. Africa and Vens and other S. Ams will be hosed for a while. The OPEC world will in all probability shudder and shake for some time. I'm hopefull that the N. Sea and Norway will be able to swing some in their avails but hey who knows.

I do think that the author of this screamer is exaggerating quite a few problems. However, I think he's in the right church just in the wrong pew and reading from the Torah. (not to mention selling gold coins).

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

jim, this is why i felt that the article had some veracity. this is a post on the iea testimony to the us senate.

there seemed to be alot of parallels. i posted this on may 20, 1999

begin text:

iea testimony to the us senate on the year 2000 problem

well, here is a rather informative report for anyone with a burning desire to see 'the big picture.'

here is another dot to connect to the last one.

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/powergen.htm electric [seems they create their own electricity...i think we should send some of the mavens from this forum to show them how to do it. our electrical industry is truly blessed...we have NO problems-NONE.]

The Oil and Gas Journal (February 15th 1999) has noted that gas turbines used extensively for oil field electrical power generation and steam injectors may both be affected. Gas turbines are also often used to generate electricity at refineries.

[now that is impossible! give me NAMES, DATES, PLACES, MANUFACTURERS AND SERIAL NUMBERS!!!]

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/refine.htm refining

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/oilprod.htm production

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/pipeline.htm pipelines

The US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), has drawn attention to potential difficulties associated with widespread use of Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition. (SCADA)in oil and gas pipeline sectors. SCADA are used in oil and gas pipeline sectors. SCADA are used to relay information from remote sections of pipeline , and to control the flow of fuel at remote locations by using computers linked to satellite and telephone communication systems.

Basically SCADA systems allow pipeline operators to obtain timely information on their pipelines. In view of pipeline operators reliance on SCADA, FERC has concluded that the y2k compliance of such systems is critical.

[maybe someone on this forum should call the iea and tell them that scada is 'nada' problem.]

The vulnerable nature of pipeline systems to peripheral communication and control systems was recently highlighted in Iraq. In February 1999 a missile hit a repeater station on the Kirkuk to Ceyhan oil pipeline. Although the pipeline itself was not damaged, the loss of the communications center cut the flow of oil between Iraq and Turkey. The pipelines control centres at Kirkuk an Ceyhan terminals rely on data from repeater stations to operate valves, pressure and temperature controls along various stages of the pipeline. Without data, these control centres were effectively blind, losing operational control and ordering system shutdown. An attempt was made to operate the line manually but was aborted as operationally unfeasible, thus highlighting the vulnerability of modern pipeline systems to computerised data and communication links. Repairs took nearly one week to complete. [you know how those 'other' countries are...they just can't seem to get it right.]

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/ship.htm shipping

http://www.iea.org/ieay2k/html/prefind.htm preliminary

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

I see your veracity......and raise you a real life example of technology killing someone. I am familiar with the Pac Nwest as I spent quite a bit of time there couple of years back. Recently (last week) a clean products (gasoline) pipeline ruptured and subsequently ignited 300k gallons of gasoline immolating two young boys and a teenager along a creek. Early word on this accident is that the highly computerized pipeline monitoring station at Renton crashed as well as the backup system one hour before the pipe ruptured. This is according to the Seattle Times and PI newspapers.

Tuesday, June 22, 1999 Disaster investigation continues Meanwhile, the probe into the Bellingham pipeline explosion continued yesterday, with crews working to reroute two city water lines that run above the gas line.

After the water lines are out of the way - possibly by Friday - federal investigators will dig up and remove the 16-inch section of pipe that ruptured and examine it for clues to the cause of the leak, said Hamick, the Olympic Pipe Line spokeswoman.

The leak, which came after computer problems at the company's Renton control center, spilled up to 277,000 gallons of gasoline into Whatcom Creek, which ignited into a fireball. An 18-year-old man and two 10-year-old boys were killed.

The fire scorched a 1 1/2-mile stretch of forested park land along the creek, killing thousands of fish and causing other environmental damage.

This happened last week. Now, as I said before, I think many of the scenarios mentioned are plausible. In fact, I have read every document at the EIA, DOE, Oil and Gas etc. As well as internal oil industry documents that you have not. I'm not criticizing, merely pointing out that I'm not as certain of the number of failures to come. I think there will be many, but I don't think it will be all. My guess is 20% of the overall industry fails in a best case scenario (remember I'm a pessimist). In a worst case 50-70% of the industry, soup to nuts, refining, e&p, downstream, pipes etc. etc. And trust me, that would be catastrophic. Even 20% would signal the biggest darn bump J. Kosky's ever seen.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

The RC piece has now been posted on all of the y2k and gold fora. But for embedded chips and embedded systems, if it doesnt include a real time clock, then it is not going to cause a problem at rollover. And if it does have a real time clock, there is going to be some reasonable way to set the time and date. And I cannot believe that you will find them at the bottom of some borehole, or at the bottom of the sea or in some otherwise inaccessible location. Engineers are not that stupid.

I dont believe the happy face stuff from the API (a trade organization of the petroleum industry), and I think that there will be some serious problem with embedded chips/systems, but nothing like RC describes. There is a bit of smell about that piece.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

There are plenty of smart engineers and plenty of dumb ones. There are plenty of chips on the bottom of the sea. That's a fact, not fiction.

How many have been fixed or will have a failsafe problem, God only knows and he certainly hasn't told me or the API anything lately.

All of which has major implications for the "juice industry".

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

I didn't say that there were no chips at the bottom of the sea, Jim. I said that is unlikely that there are any systems with real time clocks at the bottom of the sea or in other inaccessible locations.

But after reading Drew's post below and the responses, I ain't so sure of anything.

-- Anonymous, June 22, 1999

I have saying for months on this forum that the availability of CRUDE OIL is the Foundation we cannot do without. It is the one dot that must be there in sufficient quantity to allow us to have electricity and move about the country. It is the absolute bedrock of our Foundation.

I am reminded of 1974 when the oil crunch happened. Here in the southern part of Texas we have oil refineries on the Houston Ship Channel and at Texas City. These refineries produce the majority of oil refinery products used in our country. In 1974 bumper stickers appeared that said, "Freeze a Yankee." This illustrates how vital these Texas plants are.

The y2k man for Galveston County (where Texas City is) said for publication last summer that the refineries would not be ready. He worked in these plants for 20+ years. He said the plants would not be remediated, that they could not be. I can probably go back and find his presentation if it is important to anyone. Texas was built on cattle feeding the country and since the 1930s has been feeding the country with oil and its products. I have serious doubts Texas will be able to keep the country fed after 2000.

One other item - Dr. Jackson of the NRC made it public early last year that she was leaving the NRC for another post. I thought then that people would think she was jumping ship when she left. She did not recently make this decision, she made it almost a year ago.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

Here's the most disturbing thing about that article. Did anyone notice the hit count at the bottom!?!?! Over 7 MILLION !!! Is that right?? The thing was written June 21st.

If 7 million people have really read this, then it won't matter what happens with the refineries. It will be self-fulfilling prophesy. If even 0.1% believe it, the stock market will crash.

-- Anonymous, June 23, 1999

From the Seattle Times Local News : Saturday, June 26, 1999......

They were diverting fuel from Renton to Harbor Island when computers failed. The valve closure occurred five minutes later as the controls switched to a backup.

"It was unfortunate. During the time of the computer problems was the time of redirection of flow between two terminals in Renton and the Harbor Island area," Rob Brentson, Olympic supervisor of product movement, said after the accident.

Operators may be slow to diagnose leaks after having spent years monitoring a seemingly fail-safe system, said Charles Batten, a retired NTSB investigator who consulted with opponents of Olympic's cross-Cascade pipeline proposal.

"It's disbelief. I think there's some of that involved in this," he said. "They don't want to believe the system has a problem. The system has been sitting there working for 15 years without a problem."

This is a real life story from the Seattle Times about a pipeline burst caused in part or whole by a computer failure at a pump station. The resulting fire and explosion burned three young boys to death along a quiet stretch of creek in a city park. Their bodies were to hot to touch when they were found still alive. The last words of one of the boys was "Please don't tell my Mom, I don't want her to worry." I cried when I read this.

It identifies what I believe to be one of the larger Y2K risks. One of the reasons I am so worried is that I know their are engineers out there with cavalier attitudes that are responsible for other peoples lives. Hubris kills. Can we please try to eliminate it from this forum?

-- Anonymous, June 26, 1999