On my way into work this morning, I was listening to the tape I got of our local PUC y2k meeting and one thing that they mentioned was that BPA was concerned about customers being the "good guy" and turning everything off at their house/plant which would further reduce the anticipated "load" on the system. In listening to the engineers, it sounds like historical data is used to gauge how much potential demand will be required based on past new years evenings. It was further explained that this sudden drop right before the rollover could be problematic since most (if not all) power plants will be up and running at full power, including (so I read on this forum) plants that are being re-commissioned so they will be running at full power as well. This would apparently cause some scrambling to try to shed this excess power that has been generated in reaction to the sudden de-crease in demand.

Any comments from you technical folks on the forum? Is it easy to shed all of this excess generation that I hear about. (Incidentally this "excess power generation" was also mentioned by one of the regional nerc directors back in September at our PUC meeting then too.)

Personally, I'm planning on being one of those "good guys" and turning off most of the fuses at my fuse box "just in case." There was recently a court case here in Portland where a storm related power surge fried a number of people's home appliances. The verdict-the power company was not liable for damages, so all of those people had to replace their fridges, TV's etc.

Slightly off topic, but there was also mention of some concern that the rollover is also being considered by the phone companies as "the mother's day of all mother's days." in that the phone system has the potential of being jammed up as people call everyone everywhere (worldwide even) to see if they have power/other problems with y2k. How might this affect all of the engineers valiantly at their posts trying to communicate to each other on the jammed up phone lines to "shed that excess load!!?" I realize that some companies have their own communications systems-but the importance of the phones has been stressed pretty heavily... just some more stuff to stir up the old worry-pot I suppose-any comments?

-- Anonymous, June 24, 1999

Answers

Hello Jeffrey, and good questions.

Yes, the stability of the system is dependent on a relatively smooth transition of load values. The system is generally very robust, and can handle the loss of even a larger unit of 1,000 MW or more, unless the system is highly stressed at the time of the upset. Power companies are concerned about larger loads possibly dropping off-- that's why surveys were sent out to them, asking what their plans are for 12/31/1999. If *everyone* decided to pull their fuses at *exactly* the same time, there could be a problem. This isn't realistically possible, though...but if all the larger loads shut down over a period of minutes, that could be a problem.

It is much easier to shed generation than to increase it, so this scenario is inherently a bit less of a worry. Because of the relatively light loads in December, the system will be able to handle much more than it would in the summer.

Regarding the phones, yes, it will be the mother of all mother's days. However, many larger utilities use their own communications networks (microwave, power line carrier, fiber optics) for most voice and data comm for critical functions (e.g., substation to control center, or the scenario you describe, from control center to power plants). In this case the utility's network is completely separate from the outside world. And the most critical comm paths, from control centers to other control centers, will include satellite phone backup.

-- Anonymous, June 24, 1999

well......this looks like as good a thread as any to ask this question : )

just how MIGHT possible power surges affect home appliances such as computers? (or other sensitive electrical devices)

and more to the point......will a surge protector "shield" against what problems might occur? .........i'm talking about the surge protectors that you can buy at wally-world for about $20

would a "power saver" (those devices that allow you several minutes to save and close out programs if the power goes out) be more effective at protecting you against "dirty power"?

sorry if this has been covered before......i searched the archived posts and couldn't find an answer to this question.....

andrea

-- Anonymous, June 25, 1999

At the spring electric forum on Y2K in Boston (RC participated), Jim Sinclair of the New England power grid said that he was most concerned whether the grid could handle the demand problem of significant numbers of major customers trying to come back online that Monday if they shut down over the weekend. I figured we would start hearing about utility attempts to schedule those comebacks, but I haven't noticed anything yet. Seems like a contingency plan worth pursuing.

-- Anonymous, June 25, 1999