CIA assesment on MSNBC website

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

http://www.msnbc.com/modules/Y2KInternational/map_nestframe.asp

Has anyone seen this yet?? The word SEVERE keeps rearing it's ugly head. I guess, according to the CIA, our stores will have SEVERE shortages next year(go to w-mart, and see where most stuff comes from).

But, then again the CIA can't read maps(lol)!!

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), July 09, 1999

Answers

Russia

At risk: Power loss, telephone loss will be widespread. Interruptions to imports/exports will be severe. Interruptions of government services will be widespread and severe. Air transportation interruptions likely. Chance of unrest or bank panics is moderate. Notes: Nuclear weapons claimed under control except for tracking weapons in inventory. Unified Energy Systems has no plans. Banks, finance, insurance firms slow to action. Association of Russian Banks bemoans "every man for himself approach."

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


China

At risk: Power, phone loss will be widespread. Food, water, oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Interruption of government services will be both widespread and severe. Chance of unrest, bank panics is moderate. Notes: Modernizing missile forces, but Y2K implications not clear. Military vulnerable to likely mainframe problems. Business community slow to recognize problems.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Japan

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports and oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services will be severe. Notes: Perhaps 23 percent of telecom company NTT's 1,300 mainframe computers need repair. Projected cost to fix manufacturing computers is suspiciously low ($1-9 million).

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Germany

At risk: Possible oil shortages, interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services will be severe in some locations. Notes: Experts fear local, provincial governments are far behind in efforts. Minor industries late in recognizing the problem. Lufthansa will shut down all flights for 12 hours at the turn of the century.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Saudi Arabia

At risk: Air transportation interruptions likely. Interruptions to imports/exports, oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services will be severe. Notes: Status of CSS-2 missile system is unknown. Foreign military sales present a Y2K issue for U.S. military systems sold to Saudi Arabia.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.



Mexico

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Major corporations will spend $7.6 billion. Fewer than 25 percent have taken action. Only 34 percent are aware of the severity of the problem.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


South Africa

At risk: Air transportation interruptions likely. Interruptions to imports/exports, oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services likely. Notes: Forty percent of local governments have inadequate action plans. Only 70 percent of national government anticipates being compliant by 2000. Banking industry well prepared.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Canada

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports and oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Notes: Costs to federal government -- $1.4 billion. About 25 percent of public utilities won't be ready until last half of 1999.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Canada

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports and oil shortages will be isolated but severe.

Notes: Costs to federal government -- $1.4 billion. About 25 percent of public utilities won't be ready until last half of 1999.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Hey US folk.... Where do your imports of oil come from? If Canada is not ready in this area we have a problem. And I do mean WE.

Is there a date for the relevance of this information from the CIA?

CIA - well they are a doomer org. eh?

-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 09, 1999.


United Kingdom

At risk: Interruptions of government services likely. Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Mixed reports regarding military preparedness. Air transportation cited as one of the worst examples of dealing with Y2K.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.



Pakistan

At risk: Power loss, telephone loss will be widespread. Interruptions to imports/exports will be severe. Interruptions of government services will be widespread and severe. Air transportation interruptions likely. Chance of unrest or bank panics is moderate.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


India

At risk: Possible oil shortages, interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services will be severe in some locations. Notes: Cost to national government -- $161 million.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Taiwan

At risk: Interruptions of government services likely. Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Government will shut down non-compliant banks. Seventy-seven percent of small- to mid-size companies are unaware or unable to deal with Y2K.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


South Korea

At risk: Interruptions of government services likely. Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Military setbacks expected due to lack of progress. Government slow at identifying systems in need of Y2K fixes.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


North Korea

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Interruptions of government services will be severe. Air transportation interruptions likely.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.



Argentina

At risk: Possible interruptions to imports/exports and oil shortages will be isolated but severe. Notes: $1.5 billion to be spent by major industries. Minor industries -- small and mid-sized firms -- have insufficient funds to deal with the problem.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Brazil

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Cost to government -- $600 million to $14 billion.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Italy

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Cost to national government -- $1.5 billion

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Sweden

At risk: Interruptions of government services likely. Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: February 1998 survey revealed a majority of power transmission and power trading companies had not completed their inventories of IT systems.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Israel

At risk: Interruptions to imports/exports will be isolated but severe. Notes: Cost to national government -- est. $600-700 million.

-- Nabi Davidson (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Brian,

Practically all oil imported into the U.S. comes from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia.

FWIW, the lion's share of domestic U.S. oil comes from Alaska.

-- Codejockey (Codejockey99@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.


Its sure news to any one who worked Alaska gaslines, Prudoe Bay, etc that Alaskan oil is coming south. As far as I know, or any friends that are still up there know, only about 2% comes down here. The rest goes off shore, primarily to Japan.

Taz

-- Taz (Tassie @aol.com), July 09, 1999.


CIA's Statement to the Senate (March/1999)

Depar tment of Energy's Statement to the Senate (April/1999)



-- Link Boy (-@-.-), July 09, 1999.


It's a great pity that the CIA couldn't post a little summary for the US.

-- Lurker (passing@topspeed.com), July 09, 1999.

It appears the new product "Polly-off" has been sprayed on this thread. Pretty effective, huh?

-- a (a@a.a), July 09, 1999.

If your interested in the CIA brief summaries of each country you should check out the Action 2000, UK, international Y2K status of 66 countries. They provide a somewhat more detailed assessment for what they are worth. Check out:

ACTION 2000 International Y2K Status

PS. It appears that Action 2000, UK, (like the CIA) feel that England and Scotland are also immune. Note how they have Ireland listed.

-- Lurker (revisiting@thread.com), July 09, 1999.


eh, the CIA is a bunch of doomers.

who needs oil?

we can go manuel.

he's got a donkey and a cart...and he's a distant cuz of mine.

out of every terrible situation there are ways to make a profit.

feel better "a"?

: )

Mike ====================================================================

-- Michael "Miguelito" Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 09, 1999.


What you see with regard to most countries' imports/exports is that Y2K-related disruptions will be "isolated but severe." It's hard to get a handle on this expression: how isolated? how severe? and just which imports/exports are we talking about? Then, too, some of the CIA info seems as out of date (e.g., the survey on Swedish power companies) as its map of Belgrade. But I'll grant that when you add all of this up, it does not leave you with a warm feeling inside. The assessments of Russia, China, and Pakistan are especially unnerving. There is also a sense that SMEs worldwide are in very serious Y2K trouble, that there are some significant regional threats to oil flow, that many countries and companies have woefully underestimated the extent, severity, and cost of their Y2K problems, and that in some of the more optimistic assessments (e.g., that of Italy) the CIA may have simply accepted the "spin" put out by national Y2K project directors, since these assessments don't correlate particularly well with various other outside analyses.

-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 09, 1999.

Lurker...the CIA can't comment on the US. They are only allowed to operate outside the US. Yeah, right. I think that the eval for the states was left out of said report deliberately and given in the closed door part of their session.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), July 09, 1999.

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