From this morning's NYTimes:

Maneuvers Show Russian Reliance on Nuclear Arms; Atomic Attack Simulated

http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/europe/071099russia-military.html

MOSCOW -- Reflecting its growing dependence on nuclear weapons for defense, Russia's military carried out mock nuclear strikes in a major exercise last month, the Defense Minister said Friday.

The exercise was the largest since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991. It involved 50,000 troops, bombers, tanks and warships from the Barents Sea to the Black Sea.

One of the scenarios for the exercise underscored the expanding role nuclear weapons have been playing in the Russian military's strategy and plans in recent years.

According to the script for the military exercise, disclosed Friday at a news conference by Defense Minister Igor Sergeyev, Russia came under attack by an unspecified Western foe, which used non-nuclear forces.

At first, Russia also tried to limit its attacks to conventional forces. But its cash-starved non-nuclear forces failed to stop the enemy onslaught, forcing the leadership to turn to its still formidable nuclear arsenal.

"The exercise tested one of the provisions of Russia's military doctrine concerning a possible use of nuclear weapons when all other measures are exhausted," Marshal Sergeyev said. "We did pursue such an option. All measures were exhausted. Our defenses proved to be ineffective. An enemy continued to push into Russia. And that's when the decision to use nuclear weapons was made..."

...The weeklong exercise, which was held in late June, was planned last year but adapted to take account of the Yugoslav conflict, including NATO's ability to attack at long range with precision-guided bombs, Marshal Sergeyev said.

The military aim of the exercise was to test command procedures for defending western Russia and Belarus from an attack from the West.

"To verify the authenticity of the decisions and test procedures for troop control, more than 50 military units participated in the exercise," Marshal Sergeyev said. "There have been extensive structural changes to the forces in recent years, and we have to practice their management and regain units' operational skills."

The political aim appeared to be to demonstrate to the world as well as to the Russian public that the military is still a credible fighting force.

During the exercise, two old turbo-prop Bear bombers approached Iceland while a couple of new Blackjack bombers approached Norway. Russian ships maneuvered under the watchful eyes of Western reconnaissance ships and aircraft.

Officially, the Defense Ministry declined to specify who the imaginary enemy was. The aim, Marshal Sergeyev told the Russian Itar-Tass news agency, was to rehearse the defeat of the enemy and the recapture of lost territory.

Some Russian observers were less diplomatic. The Defense Ministry, the newspaper Nezavisimaya Gazeta noted, refuses to say who the adversary is. "But few doubt that the enemy is NATO's armed forces in Europe," it added.

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), July 10, 1999

Answers

Nice headsup pshannon.

"We have to regain units operational skills."

While Russia has cut back on the numbers in her military, she has not cut back in her generals. They realize that troops can be readied in 6-8 weeks, but it takes 2 years to ready a general.

They have their commando agents already in place and their weapons are already here in the U.S. Before they would send nukes here they will first mount a huge terrorist campaign, assassinations, and nbc attacks on strategic locations. So what are we doing?....talking about Hillary's run and G.W. Bush and elections 16 months away.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 10, 1999.

Thanks for the post, pshannon.

Anyone who thinks that the Russian bear is toothless is in denial just as much as CPR, Y2K Pro, Mutha Natcha, etc.... The Russian leaders surely know that come 1/1/00, they are burnt toast because of Y2K. Power outages, infrastructure failures, and most importantly, military failures will be the order of the day.

This, combined with NATO's recently demonstrated aggressive nature, must be weighing heavily on the minds of the Russian leaders. Do they allow the rollover to occur and depend upon the "goodness" of the west (especially the NATO nations) not to take advantage of their collapse?

What would you do if you had an enemy that had recently demonstrated its disdain for you by attacking your traditional ally (Yugoslavia), and you were to soon be in a position of weakness? I find it easy to believe that at least the option of a preemptive nuclear strike against NATO (especially America) has been considered.

Will such a strike take place? An estimated 80% of Russia's military defense systems are likely to be affected by the Millennium bug. Russia is now a wounded bear, mired in economic collapse. Will their leaders allow them to be further devastated by Y2K and vulnerable to any and all who are able to take advantage of their weakness?

I'd have to speculate that the chance of a Russian surprise attack on America and her NATO allies is quite high. Y2K may not be our biggest problem, after all...

-- Nabi (nabi7@yahoo.com), July 10, 1999.

From the AP wire:

"http://www.tampabayonline.net/news/news1027.htm">Military Chiefs Want More Troops

Ray

-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 10, 1999.

Italics off!

-- IO (italics@every.where), July 10, 1999.

Thanks Nabi, Ray. I keep wondering how the GPS rollover might affect things. I understand that our military has to replace their receivers in their equipment and vehicles. My guess is that other militaries do as well. Could they be forced to move before August 22nd? I keep looking for information to the contrary.

-- bb (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 10, 1999.