****** TIME FOR A QUICK POLL ******greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread |
Time for a quick poll. Using the following scale,SCENARIO ADVOCATE -------- -------- Bump in the road Koskinen Recession (as bad as 70's) Yardeni Depression (as bad as 30's) Yourdon Collapse (fall of US government) Milne Devolutionary spiral Infomagicgive your one line distribution of probabilities of the scenarios from Bump to Devolution. They should sum to 100. If everyone puts a # as the first character, and uses commas as a seperator, I'll sort the results in a few days and post two averages; one comprised of only "regulars" and one of all posters.Here is my entry (winner gets to mudwrestle with King of Spain):
# 1,28,50,20,1
-- a (a@a.a), July 14, 1999
#10,70,19,0.8,0.2
-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), July 14, 1999.
#0,10,40,40,10
-- Jon Williamson (pssomerville@sprintmail.com), July 14, 1999.
1,3,25,50,20,1
-- (c@c.c), July 14, 1999.
#5,30,50,10,5
-- LG (mimesis@webtv.net), July 14, 1999.
30,50,20,0,0
-- Flint (flintc@mindspring.com), July 14, 1999.
0, 10, 90, 0, 0 *I would like to donate my prize to charity*...
-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), July 14, 1999.
Forgot to explain that I added a new one just for the "super polly's" who say it's a hoax. That would be the first 1%, which I think is as likely as an Infomagic.
-- (c@c.c), July 14, 1999.
# 0,1,24,40,35
-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,10,50,30,10
-- OldIBMer (Long@TimeLurker.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,60,30,8,2
-- Spindoc' (spindoc_99_2000@yahoo.com), July 14, 1999.
# 0,60,40,0,0
-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), July 14, 1999.
#0,10,55,30,5 The bump in the road is no longer an option because the masses do not have the time(nor the resources) to prepare for 2 weeks without power.Programmers have never before been confronted with the possibility of making their repairs by generator in unheated work areas with frozen pipes worried about the safety of their families.That would be the situation if you worked in one of the areas of"rolling Blackouts"Then again maybe they will have food,lights and all the comforts of home.If they do they probably will answer the knock on the door and take the time and resources to share with those that didn't quite fit into the "warming centers".
-- Desertj98 (jturner@ptway.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,25,55,25,0
-- marianne (uranus@nbn.net), July 14, 1999.
0,20,70,10,0
-- Stash (Stashin@home.com), July 14, 1999.
# 0,20,50,25,5
-- Sammie Davis (sammie0X@hotmail.com), July 14, 1999.
#5,40,52,2,1S.O.B.
-- sweetolebob (buffgun@hotmail.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,30,65,5,0
-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), July 14, 1999.
# 0,40,58,2,0
-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), July 14, 1999.
#5,40,54,1,0
-- Smokey (Smokey1057@aol.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,0,50,50,0
-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,40,50,10,0.
-- bulldog (sniffin@around.com), July 14, 1999.
# 0, 15, 80, 5, 0
-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), July 14, 1999.
# 0,2,35,8,4. Huh?, those don't add up...I'm 51% sure of something worse than 1930's, but short of a Milne. So if you want the numbers for a compilation, maybe...#0,2,61,33,4
-- number six (Iam_not_a_number@hotmail.com), July 14, 1999.
marianne,Uh...Pardon me, but them numbers just don't compute...
-- BiGG (supersite@acronet.net), July 14, 1999.
# 0,25,45,10,20
-- K. Stevens (kstevens@It's ALL going away in January.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,0,40,50,10I have to say though that between depression (Yourdon) and collapse of the govt (Milne) is another truly heinous option. Which is a collapse of all social and economic institutions except govt. which would survive in a militarized form because it has sole access to all the fuel.
-- R (riversoma@aol.com), July 14, 1999.
oops,#0,25,55,20,0
-- marianne (uranus@nbn.net), July 14, 1999.
#0, 50, 35, 10, 5
-- KLT (KLTEVC@aol.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,10,70,20,0Agree there should be something between Yourdon and Milne-----a baaaad depression.
-- sue (deco100@aol.com), July 14, 1999.
6,30,50,10,4
-- Jim Smith (cyberax@ix.netcom.com), July 14, 1999.
10,25,50,10,5
-- Nathan (nospam@all.com), July 14, 1999.
#0,20,60,15,5
-- Mary (timmary0@airmail.net), July 14, 1999.
0,15,40,30,15Im moving to Milne's place - now where is Infomagic anyway?
Bob P
-- Bob P (rpilc99206@aol.com), July 14, 1999.
0,40,60,n/a,0As I am a Canadian my answer to "milne" is n/a
-- Brian (imager@home.com), July 15, 1999.
0,5,25,40,30Am I a "Polly"?
-- Bill (BookWormNM@uswest.net), July 15, 1999.
0,60,30,9,1If I win, I'd like to donate my prize to Flora who, upon being asked by His Majesty if she mud-wrestled, breathed in awe, "I feel as if I've finally arrived."
-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 15, 1999.
0,40,50,9,1
-- Leslie (***@***.net), July 15, 1999.
#1,20,70,5,4
-- Bob Barbour (r.barbour@waikato.ac.nz), July 15, 1999.
'a':As much as I'd love to have a crystal ball, even if I did, the categories you defined leave a great deal to be desired:
Bump in the road Koskinen
Would this one mean a bump in the road for ME, yet some folks in Minnesota or Russia could be left freezing? How LARGE a bump would that be? An analogy that "Big Dog" recently used was falling off a cliff. It makes a BIG difference whether that cliff is 10 feet high or 2000 feet high. Location is going to make a BIG difference here, IMHO.
Recession (as bad as 70's) Yardeni
Does this mean the 40% chance of a recession that Yardeni proposed, or a recession in MY area, or a recession caused by electricity being down for too long in a city that caused many businesses to close putting people out of work? Depression (as bad as 30's) Yourdon
Does this mean in the U.S., or does it include countries that are experiencing depressions currently?
Collapse (fall of US government) Milne Devolutionary spiral Infomagic
With these questions in my mind, I would only offer my "crystal ball" predictions on the last two categories: 0 and 0.
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 15, 1999.
Thanks for reminding me, Old Git.The prize here seems more like the "booby" prize, 'a'. [grin] No offense to the King of Spain (of course.)
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 15, 1999.
# 0,40,55,4,1
-- LauraA (laadedah@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
Traveling at the speed of "frenzy", even a bump in the road can be fatal! Panic then - Collapse then - Oligarchy - Solar Max - ????? But per your parameters;#0,0,30,60,10 ..{*^O`
PS. Try to imagine a depression as bad as the 30's, at this time in history. Hey King, here's MUD in your eye!!! SCCCHHHPLATT! `{^;#
-- Michael (mikeymac@uswest.net), July 15, 1999.
0,20,50,20,10
-- dave (wootendave@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
#5,10,35,40,10Dammit Anita, cant you just briefly answer the question! ;)
-- ariZONEa (where_s_the_calculator@?._), July 15, 1999.
#1,10,75,10,4
-- Clyde (clydeblalock@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
*a* define a "regular"I agree with the others, there needs to be something between Yourdon and Milne...the depression will be more severe than the 30's but the Gummint will stumble and bumble somehow through it all, because people don't know what to do without it!!
Given the choices though...
#5,17,55,21,2
-- Don (dwegner@cheyenneweb.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,0,10,80,10
-- Steve Heller (stheller@koyote.com), July 15, 1999.
AriZONEa:I guess you now know why I never get selected for jury duty. :-)
-- Anita (spoonera@msn.com), July 15, 1999.
#30,50,10,5,5
-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), July 15, 1999.
Anita, they throw me out after the voir dire. They don't seem to like my answers.
-- Barb (awaltrip@telepath.com), July 15, 1999.
#10,40,40,10,0
-- Neil G. Lewis (pnglewis1@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,15,35,35,15
-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), July 15, 1999.
#24,70,5,1,0which I guess makes me a raving Polly in some peoples' estimation.
-- Peter Errington (petere@ricochet.net), July 15, 1999.
0 Bump in the road5 Recession (as bad as 70's)
45 Recession (much worse than the '70s)
28 Depression (as bad as 30's)
21 Collapse (fall of US government)
1 Devolutionary spiral
Sorry I added the other recession possibility "a". But, considering that currently people are taxed much more than they were in the 70's and the fact that so many depend so heavily on the government (for work, for money, etc.) which may not be able to operate at it's current levels I think if there is a recession it'll be much worse than the 70's.
Mike ====================================================================
-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
# 0.95, 8.15, 80.00, 8.65, 2.25
"a": if anyone other than one of the ladies is declared the winner, I will graciously bestow my honor on our good friend Mr. Decker.
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
# 0,0,30,50,20
-- Dean -- from (almost) Duh Moines (dtmiller@nevia.net), July 15, 1999.
#3,45,45,7,0-TECH32-
-- TECH32 (TECH32@NOMAIL.COM), July 15, 1999.
# 12,70,17.9,0.1,0This is like taking a personality test -- I had no idea I was such an incredible optimist!
-- philpier (philpier@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
SCENARIO ADVOCATE -------- -------- Bump in the road Koskinen Recession (as bad as 70's) Yardeni Depression (as bad as 30's) Yourdon Collapse (fall of US government) Milne Devolutionary spiral Infomagic # 0,10,55,30,5BUT, there is a LARGE space between Y and M. the way I TRULY see it is more like 0(k), 10(Yar), 15 (Your), [50], 10(m), 15(i) where the [] is somewhere between Yourdon and Milne
chuck
-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 15, 1999.
OOOPS, Let's try that again in something that resembles humanx language
# 0,10,55,30,5
BUT, there is a LARGE space between Y and M. the way I TRULY see it is more like 0(k), 10(Yar), 15 (Your), [50], 10(m), 15(i) where the [] is somewhere between Yourdon and Milne
Chuck
-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,0,75,0,25The "adjustment" of the 1970's was no big deal. I have maintained, even from before I learned about this problem, that if the government goes down it will lead to an ELE---extinction level event for industrial society, anyway.
Infomagic is a newby, as far as I'm concerned. He only sussed to it when Y2K came along.
Hallyx
"We have put the egg of civilization in one basket, woven from the fibers of virtual reality and suspended by an electrical cord." --- Allen Comstock
-- (Hallyx@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
0,10,30,50,10 I think things will gradually go from bad to worse, with problems beginning slowly then compounding exponentially until it becomes obviously impossible to restore what once was life as we know it now. Life will be different, but how different, for how long looms unanswerable.
-- Ann Fisher (zyax55b@prodigy.com), July 15, 1999.
#14,55,30,1,0
-- No Spam Please (nos_pam_please@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
# 0,5,70,25,0My definition of 25% is prolonged government control/intervention in supply lines/oil/utilies.
-- Lilly (homesteader145@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,0,0,0,100
-- (snowleopard6@webtv.net), July 15, 1999.
0, 45, 45, 10, 0
-- Bob (bob@bob.bob), July 15, 1999.
#2,35,40,5,18
-- bud (bud@computersedge.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,0,90,10,0 if communism and terrorism remain in check#0,0,0,90,10 if they aren't
-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), July 15, 1999.
I have to just say it: As much as I want to believe we can muddle through with no more than a recession, I think that a year from now, well be looking back at a real mess, from the middle of one. Equal chances for anything:0 - 10 - 30 - 30 - 30
-- Faith Weaver (suzsolutions@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.
0,10,30,50,10/////
-- FLAME AWAY (BLehman202@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
98,2,0,0,0...I'm in a pessimistic mood...
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 15, 1999.
#$!&* 0-0-0-0-100: Hey Hallyx, why so sanguine? Rip the electro-facade off this pustule of a culture, and the healing begins. First a little I & D.
-- Spidey (in@jam.commie), July 15, 1999.
For the first 63 answers (more or less, through FLAME AWAY), the averages are: 2.92 25.42 45.78 18.47 7.42The data (for those of you that want to play along at home): #1,28,50,20,1#10,70,19,0.8,0.2#0,10,40,40,10#4,25,50,20,1#5,30,50,10,5 #30,50,20,0,0#0,10,90,0,0#0,1,24,40,35#0,10,50,30,10#0,60,30,8,2#0,60, 40,0,0#0,10,55,30,5#0,20,70,10,0#0,20,50,25,5#5,40,52,2,1#0,30,65,5,0# 0,40,58,2,0#5,40,54,1,0#0,0,50,50,0#0,40,50,10,0#0,15,80,5,0#0,2,61,33 ,4#0,25,45,10,20#0,0,40,50,10#0,25,55,20,0#0,50,35,10,5#0,10,70,20,0#6 ,30,50,10,4#10,25,50,10,5#0,20,60,15,5#0,15,40,30,15#0,40,60,0,0#0,5,2 5,40,30#0,60,30,9,1#0,40,50,9,1#1,20,70,5,4#0,40,55,4,1#0,0,30,60,10#0 ,20,50,20,10#5,10,35,40,10#1,10,75,10,4#5,17,55,21,2#0,0,10,80,10#30,5 0,10,5,5#10,40,40,10,0#0,15,35,35,15#24,70,5,1,0#0,50,28,21,1#0.95,8.1 5,80,8.65,2.25#0,0,30,50,20#3,45,45,7,0#12,70,17.9,0.1,0#0,10,55,30,5# 0,0,75,0,25#0,10,30,50,10#14,55,30,1,0#0,5,70,25,0#0,0,0,0,100#0,45,45 ,10,0#2,35,40,5,18#0,0,90,10,0#0,10,30,30,30#0,10,30,50,10
(There are two Jim Smith's participating, but we have different EMail addresses)
-- Jim Smith (JDSmith@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
My estimates as of July 1999:# 15,20,50,10,5
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 15, 1999.
*see Anita
0,10-90,10-90,10-90,0
Critt
-- Critt Jarvis (middleground@critt.com), July 15, 1999.
# 5,30,50,15,0
-- Bruce (bwebber@ameritech.net), July 15, 1999.
# 0,5,15,70,10
-- Keith Nealy (keithn@aloha.net), July 15, 1999.
#0,10,50,40,3Less than a 20% chance that it will not be the worst conditions in my lifetime. I haven't figured out a way for the government to survive if they can't collect taxes and the post office is incapacitated.
-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), July 15, 1999.
0,0,60,30,10Ray
-- Ray (ray@totacc.com), July 15, 1999.
10% If bump in the road, it will feel like no springs or shocks35% Oil was the reason then, it will be a key factor now
40% Less the drought
10% Unless citizens beg for a dictator
5% Only if gang style v. independent rule
-- Daryl (rushmore@dailypost.com), July 15, 1999.
10,10,60,10,10
-- Carol (glear@usa.net), July 15, 1999.
With communist/terrorist intervention: #0,0,0,50,50.Without: #0,0,40,50,10.
My second option is hopeful thinking, and I've been in the pit twice already (but never with the King, move over big boy!)
-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,10,45,45,0
-- Ex-Marine (Digging In@Home.com), July 15, 1999.
# 0,40,30,20,10
-- me (me@my.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,65,35,0,0
-- Barry (barry@oldranchersfoods.com), July 15, 1999.
#5,30,50,12,3
-- BigDog@duffer.com (BigDog@duffer.com), July 15, 1999.
#5,40,50,5,0
-- Ron Davis (rdavis@ozemail.com.au), July 15, 1999.
# 1,40,50,8,1
-- Jim Morris (prism@bevcomm.net), July 15, 1999.
# 1,5,65,20,9 Only if 60% of US based "mission critical" systems are repaired in time, and there are no foreign terrorist attacks, or wars launched to take advantage of perceived US weakness.
-- Sure M. Worried (SureMWorried@about.Y2K.coming), July 15, 1999.
#34,65,1,0,0
-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 15, 1999.
# 10,35,40,14,1
-- lisa (lisa@late.for_poll), July 15, 1999.
0,55,35,9,1 Worldwide economics will suffer for several years, we could have short term panic (ala Miline), but longer term effects will be world trade issues, lack of capacity.
-- Bill (y2khippo@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.
10,55,32,2,1
-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), July 15, 1999.
Maybe my numbers look "polly," but I don't think that the doomers are all crazy since the risks of 9-10 are still real and worth planning for.
-- coprolith (coprolith@rocketship.com), July 15, 1999.
#2,20,50,20,8
-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,75,10,10,5
-- Marc (Derigueur2@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
Ashton: # 0, 0, 10, 70, 20Leska: # 5, 10, 30, 50, 5
If twere just the technical: # 10, 40, 50, 0, 0
But add humanimals: All the disruptive destroy&tear-apart tactics man has brutally inflicted against life will be repeated with new twists and turns thrown in for new measure of sheer destruction and poisoning.
Ppl, raging, betrayed, furiously revenge-minded, will push the world close to the brink. Believe there will be nuke meltdowns + chem/bio launches due to opportunistic terrorism and general idiotic war insanity.
If people could help each other lovingly, and eagerly productively learn from the past and Y2K mistakes, we could bump along, shaken to our roots but become resilient as never before.
It will come down to the depth of heroism, altruism, and spirituality which each person is able to pull forth from his soul and apply and contribute toward the rapid evolution of his brethren and earth.
Unfortunately, these noble enlivening traits have not been practiced or exhibited in some time, and the current acceleration is very much barrelling plummeting the opposite hellish downward tunnel.
An immediate and dramatic sharp reversal UPward is all that can save this planet.
xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 15, 1999.
#0,0,50,0,50
-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 15, 1999.
0,10,15,60,15..... too many clueless and too many problems as outlined in this forum. The man at the bottom of the thread is the wealthiest, but will soon be the most hated...
-- Paul Christy (paulchri@msn.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,10,30,35,25Some of y'all need to go back and re-study your infomagic.
-- PINKROCK (aphotonboy@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
#10, 30, 50, 10, 0
-- newbiewhohatespolls (Linda@home.com), July 15, 1999.
0,3,40,50,7
-- (dit@dot.dash), July 15, 1999.
# 1, 39, 50, 10, 0
-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
0,20,80,10,0
-- && (&&@&&.&), July 15, 1999.
# 2,25,50,20,3
-- yerfdog (yerfdog@qwestinternet.net), July 15, 1999.
#5,30,40,20,5
-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 15, 1999.
Lon Frank: How the heck can you call for a 50% probability of a Yourdon-style depression, 50% for a Infomagic-style total meltdwown, yet assign no chance whatsoever for a Milne-style collapse that would be in-between? I'm not trying to say that you are wrong, nobody knows, but I wanted to make sure that you didn't transpose a 50/0. And if you really feel that this is the way the probabilities line up, I'd LOVE to hear your reasoning.
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
I thought about this last night and it bugged me.I don't believe I was truly honest in my answers to the poll or even myself. Maybe it's a defense mechanism but I really can't allow myself to be as pessimistic as my fears or even common sense might dictate. I think I NEED to have hope and be optimistic because I want my son to have a better life than I have had. This resulted in my creating a new answer which said essentially that the most that could occur was the worst recession the world has ever known.
IMHO, even in that "optimistic" view, the chances for war and ugliness would be intense and perhaps cascade. If our government is unable to operate because of diminished capacity or reacts in ways that cause people to rebel against it then all bets are off.
I'm a little shocked that so many people give no possibility to either the bump in the road or the devolutionary spiral. I would think there has to be a chance for a bump in the road no matter how small. Furthermore, I would think that a chance for a devolutionary spiral exists even without the possibility of Y2k problems.
Just had to get this stuff off my chest. As always, comments and flames are welcome.
Thanks.
Mike ======================================================
-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,42,57,0,1
-- Mike (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
5,40,50,4,1
-- Valkyrie (anon@please.net), July 15, 1999.
King, he probably feels as I do, If we reach a Milne, an Infomajic is soon to follow.
-- Mike (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
Looks like NO one has any faith in Infomagic's devolutionary spiral! I feel like submitting0-0-0-0-100
just to be perverse!
But the truth is, I think it's very likely. Dark Ages have come & gone before; why do we think we're immune to them now? Are we more clever than the Roman Empire?
The world is on the verge of chaos even w/o computer problems. Add into the mess solar flares, unknown diseases, various environmental & weather related problems, and.... These could just be the "good ole days."
-- not looking (forward@to.it), July 15, 1999.
# 90, 10, 0, 0, 0Maybe the "pole" should be upside the y2kultists heads!
-- Guess who (Fu_Q_y2kfreaks@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
"I'm a little shocked that so many people give no possibility to either the bump in the road or the devolutionary spiral. I would think there has to be a chance for a bump in the road no matter how small."-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
By definition we GI's don't believe in the "bump", we believe the road in front of us has collapsed. After that, it's just a matter of how deep we think the hole is.
Make sense?
As for a spiral, well, maybe we can't allow our selves to believe it.
-- Mike (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
#0,5,25,50,20and getting worse every day. I've given up searching for proof it won't be horrendous. You can't touch a web without the spider feeling it. All the little critters caught in the web will feel it too.
-- Arewyn (isitthatlate@lready.com), July 15, 1999.
Mike, what you wrote makes perfect sense. I am an optimist!If I were being totally honest with myself I would say I agree with Hallyx and "not looking". I think once the system starts to fall toward the devolutionary then it would be impossible to stop without a huge loss in technology but more importantly human life.
The bottom line is the carrying capacity. Can we realistically carry the current population levels in a system where there is even an optimistic 10% reduction in capacity? Wouldn't that further cascade and continue the devolutionary spiral?
What would happen in major cities like LA and NY and Chicago if the water supply was contaminated or disrupted for a few days? Just the water supply and in just these cities? My guess is that there isn't enough resources to make sure water supplies will be sufficient for the entire popution in those areas, that would impact all other services, people (including people needed to restore services) would die...it would cascade into other vital areas...
I don't wanna think about it.
Mike =========================================================
-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
0,30,50,20,0
-- jeanne (jeanne@hurry.now), July 15, 1999.
90,10,0,0,0
-- Deano (deano@luvthebeach.com), July 15, 1999.
"The first 90% of a software project takes the first 90% of the time. The last 10% of a software project takes the other 90% of the time."# 0,2,25,48,25
www.y2ksafeminnesota.com (read paragraphs 1 & 3 of "An Introduction")
-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
0,0,80,20,10
-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
# 10,20,50,15,5
-- Paul DiMaria (p_dimaria@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
0--no bump 10 percent recession 75 percent depression 10 percent widespread famine, plagues, social collapse 5 percent wild card
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
#0, 10, 80++?,10,0Thinking globally.
Diane
-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), July 15, 1999.
#0, 10, 50, 40, 10
-- bw (home@puget.sound), July 15, 1999.
#0,25,65,9,1
-- seraphima (seraphima@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
0,5,70,20,5A bump in the road just aint gonna happen.
Yardini's doesn't even believe in a Recession. Read between the lines.
Yourdon is being optomistic! Why more to a different part of the country to avoid a depression?
Milne is probably off just a little bit. It may not be the fall of the government, though I truely believe the people in it will be replaced if they aren't dead already.
Infomagic. Only just possible. If Milne is right though, What's stopping it?
Father
-- Thomas G. Hale (hale.tg@att.net), July 15, 1999.
Gaussian distributions--ecchh!
-- Spidey (in@jam.commie), July 15, 1999.
An example of Doomer addition:"The first 90% of a software project takes the first 90% of the time. The last 10% of a software project takes the other 90% of the time."
. No wonder everyone thinks you're Y2krackpots...
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 15, 1999.
a -- Unfortunately OutingsR can't do anything but cut and paste, anything else is out of our job description, but we had to point out that your thread is getting up in the Decker range of responses.
-- OutingsR (us@here.yar), July 15, 1999.
No, this is an example of how software projects work. Read F. Brook's "The Mythical Man-Month" if you have not done so already. Yourdon's "Decline & Fall of the American Programmer" and "Rise and Resurrection of The American Programmer" are pretty good as well for giving some idea of how software design really works.www.y2ksafeminnesota.com
-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
#50,0,40,10,0
-- David Butts (dciinc@aqol.com), July 15, 1999.
"I've given up searching for proof it won't be horrendous."Arewyn,
You echo my sentiments exactly. You know, I've always been an optimist. I have been accused of being a "Pollyanna" all my life. I have always had trouble believing that people had bad intentions or nefarious purposes. Now I find myself labeled a "doomer." I just wish I could find something that would keep me from worrying so much about all this. There are so many other things I would rather be spending my energies on.
I have been using computers since I was 14 and I'm 38 now. I love them. Beyond what they have done to the world at large - I personally, have enjoyed using them. I have enjoyed watching them evolve. I have no desire to see them go away. I am also not one for slowing down at the scene of an accident, going to gory movies or watching the evening news. I just cant stand seeing other people in pain.
The idea that I am indulging in some sort of grotesque entertainment by being a "doomer" is ludicrous in the extreme. If I could find any proof that things will not be horrendous I would be the happiest loudest Polly on the net. I would be writing essays and citing stats all over the place.
-- R (riversoma@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
0,15,40,40,5Let me add a caveat that my version of a Milne does not see a government collapse with nothing left. I see more of a Soviet Union governmental collapse, essentially a massive downsizing due to rapid attrition and just plain irrevelance of the agencies and offices. Maybe the true federal government definition of "mission critical" will be "Was this a function of the federal government before FDR?"
Kinda like a lot of folks who are gonna massively downsize during Y2K due to diet and physical workload changes. Me included, I won't be surprised to lose fifty pounds off my well-stuffed self.
WW
-- Wildweasel (vtmldm@epix.net), July 15, 1999.
98,2,0,0,0 ...I'm in a pessimistic mood...-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 15, 1999.
"The first 90% of a software project takes the first 90% of the time. The last 10% of a software project takes the other 90% of the time." . No wonder everyone thinks you're Y2krackpots...
-- Y2K Pro (2@641.com), July 15, 1999.
Well Pro my pessimistic friend, looks as though all the prep you need to do is get those shocks replaced on your Pinto to handle that little bump. And you might want to call your boss at Burger King, and tell him youll be a little late for work on 1/3/2000, because all those damn doomers turned off your electricity, and water, and telephone, and gas, and the stop lights............BUMP!
Wheeew Pro! You need a bath man!!
-- Mike (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
60,35,5,0,0
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), July 15, 1999.
If anyone actually scrolled down this far you should be rewarded so here goes. Seriously, Last week's New Yorker has an article about a guy (Princeton professor dude) who predicts the probability of things by assuming based on his mathematical calculations there is only a 5% probability we are living in extrordinary times. Since extrordinary would include depression, fall of US etc that means there is only a 5% chance the last 3 will happen. He has never been wrong, although there is a 5% chance he will be. Read the article
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), July 15, 1999.
Considering gas prices went UP again yesterday...# 0,20,60,20,0
After all who's going to be able to afford anything by January?
DJ
-- DJ (reality@check.com), July 15, 1999.
0,10,60,30,0
-- John Galt (jgaltfla@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
Jimmy BaggaI did read the article and it was fascinating. However it all comes down to your definition of "extraordinary times." Y2k is not really about extraordinary times from a human evolutionary/historical vantage point. It is an extraordinary time in the evolution of computers. How long have we had computers involved in every part of human commerce? Maybe 15 - 20 years? Even if you start from where Y2k was hatched - back in the dark ages of computing - maybe 30-35 years ago? Then the probabilities look different. Starting from a time line of only 35 years we could easily be within the 5% timeframe of an extraordinary event in the history of computing. This is a good point to bring up though. I am tempted to start it as a new thread.
-- R (riversoma@aol.com), July 15, 1999.
#1, 28, 35, 35, 1Lots of unknowns in the equation...will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
-- Tim (pixmo@pixelquest.com), July 15, 1999.
60,35,5,0,0-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), July 15, 1999.
If anyone actually scrolled down this far you should be rewarded so here goes. Seriously, Last week's New Yorker has an article about a guy (Princeton professor dude) who predicts the probability of things by assuming based on his mathematical calculations there is only a 5% probability we are living in extrordinary times. Since extrordinary would include depression, fall of US etc that means there is only a 5% chance the last 3 will happen. He has never been wrong, although there is a 5% chance he will be. Read the article
-- Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts (jim1bets@worldnet.att.net), July 15, 1999. _____________________________________________________________________
Is this THE Jimmy Bagga Doughnuts?
WOW! What an honor! To speak directly to the most intelligent ameba on the planet!!! WOW. Yoh, Jimmie, how is that cell multiplying thinge going? Did they find your mom in the swamps of Mississippi?
Hey Doughnuts, since this is our first meeting Ill be polite.
Piss Off.
-- Mike (midwestmike_@hotmail.com), July 15, 1999.
At least JBD would know how to spell amoeba.
-- Mid. Mike (inserts@foot.in mouth again), July 15, 1999.
0,10,60,20,10
-- cat (ccordes@ashland.baysat.net), July 15, 1999.
Mr. Decker? Haven't you finished consulting with Mutha yet? J
-- a (a@a.a), July 15, 1999.
#5,40,40,10,5
-- Charlie (cstewart@ime.net), July 15, 1999.
# 0 40 40 19 1I don't think that y2k will be the key factor here, although it is certainly going to be big. My numbers take into account the whole socio situation we have brewing now; politically, financially, socially- NOT just y2k. The bug is going to exacerbate things and make a bad situation worse, but our market is due to go into freefall anyway.
When the economy collapses, a lot of things are going to go with it. In the 1930s, only the rich had money in the sharemarket. Sure, everyone had cash in banks, but the actual owners of shares were a big minority. Now, everyone has shares -if they haven't gotten into an increasingly accessible market directly, they have considerable amounts of money in the market in the form of 401k and superannuation accounts. When the market goes south, a LOT of people will find themselves losing a LOT of money. This is going to have big repercussions politically and socially -I'm talking riots here, major civil disturbances, public anger.
Y2k on its own, I would rate as being little more than a bump in the road or, at worst, a 1987 style recession. But the world events around that time are going to be a hell of a lot more than a bump in the road.
Leo
-- Leo (lchampion@ozemail.com.au), July 15, 1999.
#0,15,50,25,10
-- tangbang (get@yours.now), July 15, 1999.
# 0,0,20,60,20
-- Lois Knorr (knorr@attcanada.net), July 15, 1999.
Get hold of me off-line. Don't want to skew results, nor influence future answers.
-- Robert A Cook, PE (Kennesaw, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), July 15, 1999.
10, 20, 50,10, 10
-- Scarlett (creolady@aol.com), July 16, 1999.
I don't really know and find it hard even to make an "educated guess," but I'll play:#15,55,29,1,0
I consider a "bump in the road" to be anything less than a serious recession; obviously that bump could still be unpleasant.
These guess numbers are just for the U.S. and take into account the current economic situation (inflated stock market, etc.); for various foreign countries the numbers could be considerably worse. Also, these numbers do not reflect the possibility (odds impossible even to guess) of major non-Y2K (but perhaps related) events like cyberterrorist attacks against basic infrastructure systems, which the NSA and DoD fear.
Probably I would be predicting a U.S. recession next year even without Y2K, simply based upon current U.S. and global economic factors. Y2K will tend to make the situation considerably worse, of course (i.e., it could easily turn a mild or moderate recession into a severe one or even worse).
-- Don Florence (dflorence@zianet.com), July 16, 1999.
#20,20,20,20,20Anything can happen. Always does. It's always been one big guessing game. Think about it. What do you know for absolute certainity and what have you just heard? Anybody certain the lights will go out on 1/1/2000? Anybody certain they will stay on?...For certain?...Are you absolutely sure?
-- Ponder (this@night.com), July 16, 1999.
# 0,10,45,35,10
-- Jay (havocuz@mindspring.com), July 16, 1999.
#5, 60, 32, 3, 0
-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 16, 1999.
The 5% chance of Bump is a nod to the idea that all these Glowing Press Releases, and the uneventful start of FY2000 on July 1 mean what they seem to mean.The 60% chance of recession is based on the idea that a recession is likely anyway, and that Y2K failures at rollover will be a powerful drag on the economy to help that recession happen.
The 32% chance of depression is based on the idea that the USA stock market bubble could easily burst, with Y2K problems as the trigger. That could start a wave of credit defaults and an abrupt economic slowdown of major proportions.
The 3% chance of USA government failure is a nod in the direction that any time economic catastrophe hits in a big way, even sturdy governments are liable to fall. In February 1932 a lot of folks wondered if the USA government would last much longer. Also, wars become more likely when the world is in economic chaos.
-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), July 16, 1999.
#100,0,0,0,0 If I had a choice of something less than a bump in the road, I would have picked it. I've worked for too long in Y2k and engineering to buy the exagerations and hype you guys expound. Most effects of y2k have happened THIS year....next year will be relatively uneventful. Facts work for me....and by the way, I will be around on January 1, 2000 to see you guys eat crow, or all those reserves you've put back, lol! Regards,
-- FactFinder (FactFinder@bzn.com), July 16, 1999.
Oh thank you FactFinder, now we obviously don't have to worry about all those cities that are supposedly in Y2K trouble. Wow, 100% bump-in-the-road, you even outdid SuperPolly! Like Y2K Pro, do you also work in the fast food industry?
-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.com), July 16, 1999.
# 25 - 65 - 10 - 0 - 0C'mon Decker....a nation....well you know the rest....
Mr Cook: why the coyness about posting on line? Skewing the results? Huh? Do you get more votes than the rest of us? Influencing? C'mon, you're not implying what I think you are implying are you?
-- Johnny Canuck (j_canuck@hotmail.com), July 16, 1999.
Since my crystal ball isn't working, and hasn't been ever since I heard of Y2K, my guesses change with the weather, my mood and the latest reports. At a guess:#2,20,70,0,8
I think that if things are bad enough to bring down the US govt, they'll be to Info levels - a lot of knowledge lost and lots of what is left, unuseable (like my expertise, for example).
-- Tricia the Canuck (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), July 17, 1999.
0,48,47,4,1
-- Steve (hartsman@ticon.net), July 17, 1999.
So "a," what graphs will you post showing averages?
-- h (h@h.h), July 19, 1999.
#0,20,50,25,5 .
-- Nicki (y2kaware@excite.com), July 19, 1999.
King of Spain,Sorry it took so long to get back to your question; I went on the road for a few days.
I wondered if anyone would call my hand on my off-beat prediction of 0,0,50,0,50 and ask for an explanation. Like many others here, I've been around for over a year, just readin' and learnin'. I am not computer literate in any sense of the word, and I still do not have a firm grasp on the complexities of our problem.
However, I have made a living often by cutting to the chase and simplifying a condition and it's solution. So in self-defense, in all the argument, information, and misinformation on the forum lately, I have simplified Y2K in my thinking.
As I understand the problem, I have never seen much room for "middle-ground". IF Y2k is the disaster it can be, then it will be economically devastating, and we simply cannot have a depression as in the 30's, because we are a very different society today, than we were then. Either we hold the damage to a RECOVERABLE economic impact, or it rapidly evolves into a societal disaster.
As I said above, and in many other threads over the last year and a half, I really do not know. I simply do not know if we'll have a severe impact, I do not know what it may look like, and I do not know how it may affect us individually, as a nation, or as a civilization. But I do know that people die, nations cease, and civilizations fade. And I do know that food is cheap right now. I only hope it will be so in a year.
Thanks for asking my opinion, but remember it's just that.
Lon
-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 19, 1999.
Say somehow elections are still held. Everybody registers their rage by voting out every single incumbent and insider. The government personnel would then soon entirely change, but the structure would still be intact.
Would that qualify as a "fall of US government" ?Or say all current .gov workers were pitchforked out of their positions, and the furious populace re-erected a Constitutional structure of government.
Would that qualify as a "fall of US government" ?Does "fall of US government" mean a total system replacement or revolution, no longer republic or democratic or whatever it is now?
Clarifications of definition needed. Thanks.
xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 19, 1999.
Ashton,Y2K will soon become the proverbial fart in the elevator. Potitians will rapidly change their tune from "it don't stink" to "it wasn't ME". And most folks will believe them, because the TV said so.
-- Lon Frank (lgal@exp.net), July 19, 1999.
Um, but it will be more than a poofette stinkeroo blowing in the 3-day winter storm. And will TV be running? If TV is running and the pollyticks are denay in neighborehoods that is NOT TEOTWAWKI. That's .biz .gov as usual. That's BITR indeed.We're asking what "fall of US government" in Y2K context means. Definitions please.
Wondering if we're all interpreting these terms on the same page, so to speak ;^)
xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxxxxxx xxxxxx
-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), July 19, 1999.
No mystery, King. Lon, Tricia and I are fascinated by the phenomenon of the swarf angle, as well as other metaphors for adjustment in complex systems as they seek a lower or dispersed energy state equilibrium (higher entropy).Such systems frequently overshoot as they adjust (thermostats, ice-ages, populations). I wish I had more than a passing familiarity with systems theory. Perhaps someone more well-versed would like to explain.
Hallyx
"Perplexity is the beginning of understanding" - Kahlil Gibran
-- (Hallyx@aol.com), July 19, 1999.
#0,10,50,35,5
-- TM (digiratoX@mindspring.com), July 19, 1999.
# 0,0,20,0,0I have to add another scenario. Chance of war 80%.
-- RB (R@AR.ST), July 19, 1999.
Throwin' darts...#1,47,50,1,1
My greatest concern is the potential for a quick slide (Winter of 2001) from "Yourdon" to "Milne" & beyond due to the masses of panicky, weak-minded, seemingly soul-less sheeple in human clothes falling to pieces.
To echo the Cascadians - the situation requires intervention from "another source". My numbers account for this possibility.
Best Wishes,
-- Bingo1 (howe9@pop.shentel.net), July 21, 1999.
#0,0,75,0,25As you can see I'm with Hallyx on this one, on second thoughts, if we factor in the PoisonFire/Nuclear War angle (the first is a given, the second highly likely, hopefully small scale tactical but still quite on the cards given current stand-offs) then I'll have to go for
#0,0,50,0,50
-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), July 26, 1999.
#0,0,50,25,25
-- Not Again! (Seenit@ww2.com), July 26, 1999.
50,40,8,1,1
-- JAW (clueless@pollyanna.com), July 26, 1999.
I'm so happy I was soooo far off the mark with my numbers. Now, can someone explain to me why the impacts have been so far short of what many "experts" imagined?Or was our judgement only put off for another, more appropriate moment?
Mike
================================================== =
-- Mike Taylor (mt4design@mac.com), July 04, 2000.
Simple. Those who expected things to be "bad" were not really experts...never were, never will be.Hopefully people will learn their lesson from this y2k hype and reasearch the background and agenda's of those pushing "information" on them, especially those of the "self-appointed expert" variety.
-- (have@nice.day), July 05, 2000.
Mike,These are, in my opinion, the best summaries on Y2K so far:
"Experts Puzzled by Scarcity of Y2K Failures"
http://hv.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=002HWr"The Question of Italy: An Analysis (by Peter de Jager)":
http://www.year2000.com/y2kitaly.html"THE JOURNEY TO Y2K: FINAL REPORT OF THE PRESIDENT'S COUNCIL ON YEAR 2000 CONVERSION - March 29, 2000"
http://www.y2k.gov/docs/LASTREP3.htm...especially the section of the report entitled "RETROSPECTIVE ON THE MAGNITUDE OF THE PROBLEM."
-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), July 16, 2000.