With New Zealand being one of the first countries in the world to see the New Year in, the global media is already set up to get first hand information from New Zealand's Y2K Readiness Commission. This same Readiness Commission has just recently expressed some concern about public preparedness. The article is at:

http://www.newsbytes.com/pubNews/99/133654.html

"New Zealand's Y2K Readiness Commission is concerned that the country's citizens are not preparing themselves for disruptions to essential services at the turn of the millennium, saying 25 percent of people are still ignoring the problem.

The latest study from the government commission came a few weeks after it warned that the Year 2000 problem could lead to the interruption in supply of essential services from December 31, 1999 up to as late as March 31, 2000.

The study found that 59 percent of New Zealand households were going to make some plans for Y2K. "

[I personally would be thrilled if I thought only 25% of the U.S. population was ignoring Y2K; it appears that New Zealanders might be right at the top of awareness and preparation among the countries of the world.]

Since one of New Zealand's own (Malcolm Taylor) has been forthcoming with helpful posts here about the expectations, actions and status at his power plant I have been wondering if Malcolm could tell us how he (and/or the New Zealand electric industry people) feels about that potential "interruption of essential services" warning? Is the general opinion that it's better for the public to be warned just in case and the Commission did a good thing, or is the majority opinion that it's much ado about nothing and on the order of undue fear-mongering? Also, have you seen any evidence of extra on-the-job stress because of awareness that the whole world will be focused on New Zealand's infrastructure at the rollover? Any comments you feel able to give, Malcolm, will be gratefully received.

-- Anonymous, July 24, 1999

Answers

Bonnie, (and all),

From today's Charlotte, Observer, (Charlotte, NC);

Headline:

MINOR PROBLEMS EXPECTED FROM Y2K Third of Americans Stock up anyway.

Snip;

Almost one-third of Americans, anticipating problems from the Y2K computer bug, plans to stock up on food, water and other supplies, and one-quarter will take extra money out of the bank, an Associated Press poll found. Most Americans, 66 percent, expect only minor problems when..[you know].

The poll of 1,008 adults, conducted for the AP by ICR of of Media, Pa., found that women (38 percent) were much more likely than men (23 percent) to stock up on supplies. In addition, 42 percent of blacks planned to take precautions, compare with 29 percent of all others. (snip) Overall, 66 percent said they expected the Y2K bug would cause only minor problems in the United States and 18 percent thought there would be no problems at all, while 11 percent expected major problems. People 65 and older were twice as likely as those under 35 to expect no problems from the computer glitch. [trusting, aren't they?].

While a mojority didn't expect the problems to be serious, there was widespread belief they would be pesky. Thirty percent said they expected Y2K problems would last for a week or two at the start of the year, while another 32 percent said the problems would persist longer. (snip) ...the poll found three out of 10 respondents said banks would be most at risk because of the Y2K bug. Nearly as many said they believed the power supply would be the most at risk. (snip)

[then a defensive statement about the banks is added which had nothing to do with the the poll]

Fears about the banking system may not be warranted because that isone business that has worked hard toprepare, said a government expert on the Y2K bug. "If we're confident about any industry, we're conficent abouthe banking industry," said John Koskinen, chariman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion. (snip)

The telephone poll was taken July 16-21 and has an error margin of plus or minus 3 percentage points....

[End of article]

So..., not taking semantics into account; 25% of New Zealanders are ignoring the problem. In the U.S. 66% of the people are ignoring the problem.

In New Zealand; "New Zealand's Y2K Readiness Commission is concerned about the 25% of the people ignoring the problem." In the U.S.; The chariman of the President's Council on Year 2000 Conversion issues a defensive statement about the readiness of banks.

What's the motivation here?

New Zealand: Genuine concern for the welfare of the citizenry?

U.S.: Genuine concern for the welfare of the banking industry?

I envy the Kiwi's! Sounds like a truly wonderful place to be.

Hmmm... seems like some fundamental changes need to be made around here... corporate entities... responsibility....liability.... culpability...

I vaguely recall an National Public Radio program I heard a year or so ago about this very subject.... seems there is a group of real people focussing on this very thing... changing the laws governing corporate entities... I need to make a contribution to that group. Yep. Anyone out there know who I'm talking about or how to go about finding out?

We really do need some very fundamental changes around here.

Steve

-- Anonymous, July 24, 1999

Bonnie,

I have read the report from the Y2K readiness commission, but I also feel that in some part, they have simply repeated concerns expressed by others without carrying out any real research themselve. An example of this is that have warned New Zealand to expect power outages for up to three days, however the grid contingency plan has an entire blackout as a worst case scenario, and even then the grid would be restored within 5 - 6 hours. However the commission makes little mention of the possible effect on water and sewerage in the major cities, yet this is the area where NZ is most likely to be affected.

My personal experience so far is that there is little preparation taking place, but the main emphisis is on checking systems, remediating where possible, and/or finding work-arounds. Most NZers have a reputation for making things work without requiring high tech solutions, and hence we are less concerned with potential failures as we are with finding alternative means of keeping our essential services running.

I am extremely fortunate in being in the power industry, because the majority of NZs power ststions and substations are in rural areas rather than in the cities. The area where I live is almost self sufficient. My own house is on 1.5 acres of land, we have our own well, and septic tank sewerage plant, and the roll over will occur in early summer when the garden is producing plenty of vegetables, all the fruit trees are in full production and the trout are plentiful in the river.

The same situation applies to most NZers. It is uncommon for families not to have a vegetable garden, even in the cities, so we do not need to carry out any additional preparations.

On the work front, there has been quite a lot of additional work required because of Y2K, but even here I do not believe that we are facing the same degree of risk as USA. Part of the reason for this belief is that we appear to use some slightly different methods and procedures in the way we handle dates.

For example: When I studied computer science as a student back in the 70's the proffessor warned us that if we were using dates in any computer application to keep there use purely for tagging purposes unless there was no other way to accomplish the desired result. He did not specify that it was because of 2 digit years, but merely good practice. Untill recently, I have assumed that anyone working with computers would have carried out the same practice.

Also here in NZ we tend to be slower to use new technology as it becomes available, prefering to see how it performs in other countries before we install it. This means that we have fewer digital systems, and more analogue technology. Digital SCADA was first introduced into a power station in New Zealand in 1985, and our national grid control center didn,t have SCADA untill 1990. Prior to this all of our control systems were analogue.

OK, I have rambled on a bit here, but in summary:

NZers are well aware of the implications of Y2K. We are preparing but not to the same extent as countries in the Northern hemispere are. Our systems are often less susceptable to Y2K issues, but for those that may be affected there is also less expertise available to fix them. There is extra work going on to make sure that the rollover will be as stress free as possible. And I will be online on 1/1/00 NZ time in the lead up to 1/1/00 USA time to keep everyone informed on how we are coping.

Malcolm

-- Anonymous, July 24, 1999

Malcolm,

You are lucky to have this rollover during the warm summer months. I think we tend to forget that is the case for everyone in the southern hemisphere. Losing electric, or anything, in the winter is a much more serious situation. And Steve, maybe the general attitude of NZ government is to be more honest about the problem than our Feds are. In fact, maybe they are more honest about virtually everything. Could be.

-- Anonymous, July 25, 1999