Flint, you are incredibly dense. More so than any of your detractors are aware.

I cash out of the market near its all time peak, you say I've made a big mistake.

I leave more money in the bank for rollover than even you plan to, I'm a "doomer".

I store some gasoline and firewood, Maria says I'm nuts. Yet half of the Fortune 500 are building war rooms and stockpiling 1000's of gallons of diesel. Power plants quadrupling coal supplies. Cities building multimillion dollar bunkers. They must be Wackos.

I predict a 50% chance of Yourdon's 10 year depression, I'm a nutcase, even though the former Chairman of the FED Paul Voliker, the world most successful financier George Soros and Japan's lead economist Dr. Yen suggest the same thing.

Hoff interprets the SEC filings differently than industry expert Weiss and you claim that he's "handing me my ass on a platter", never mind that these reports were compiled by managers and lawyers falling over themselves to portray a bad situation in a favorable light.

We make it through a couple of key dates without meltdown and Flint issues the "all clear". And its just July 1999. The meltdown is yet to come. Gartner Group and Mitre Corp have predicted that the escalation of the effect is starting now.

The CIA, State Dept, and dozens of other organizations too numerous to recount predict severe disruptions overseas and domino effect supply line problems, but I'm an idiot to think they will affect life in the US.

India and Pakistan almost nuked each other last month. Defense Sec. Cohen just predicted biological terrorism on US soil. Many states' National Guards are mobilizing. FBI canceling all leave for 60 days, unprecedented. Executive Orders poised for enactment.

Japan Inc. in the crapper. Trillions in debt. Almost as much as US. Hedge funds leveraged to the hilt. Almost took out the global economy a year ago. House of Cards. Built by Ponzi himself.

D.C. is toast. Authorities scrambling to find "locomotive sized generators" to power the "warming centers". Flint thinks its business as usual. And Maria ridicules folks for storing some rice and beans.

SWIFT, the backbone if international commerce, screwed. Only 22% of banks worldwide "ready", whatever that means.

Bell & AT&T reporting that 50% of their vendors are lying about compliancy. Documented accounts of government and industry hiring PR firms to "spin" the news.

Nuke plants, power distribution centers setting their clocks back to 1972 and hoping for the best. 2 of 21 largest US cities "ready" -- worldwide - don't ask. 10% of water treatment plants expected to fail by the governments own reports.

GAO constantly catching government agencies exaggerating progress and in outright lies. GAO is worried. So is the Senate.

Personal awareness alarmingly low. Jokes made in the media about how laughable the y2k issue is. Officials smiling through gritted teeth warning of a three day storm.

The Pentagon pleading with Russia to share strategic early warning data. While they stage war games and threaten to nuke us.

Society in the worst shape since the days of the fall of Rome.

The flood of system failures increasing. How long before the limited supply of programmers is overwhelmed? Many are sitting unemployed because management is to cheap, scared and stupid to have utilized them.

How many Chernobyls will we have Flint? How many Bophals? You yourself have said you expect these types of things, that is, when you're in a mood to think realistically and not just ridicule the messengers.

All of this was predicted. By Flint's nemesis Paul Milne. But Flint can't accept that. He must not let that truth sink in. This pig farmer cannot be another Noah. Even though every single thing on this page is backed by a URL and something called HARD EVIDENCE. Flint would rather waste our time with pep talks and pontification on what "is" is.

You say the forum is dying but the number of new threads bringing disturning news has skyrocketed. Maybe whats dying is the pollanna mentality.

I could fill this thread with more bad news, but Flint would say I am just being pessimistic. Lets let him fill the rest with happy thoughts.

Good luck Flint. Maybe its all just a dream. Or a nightmare.

-- a (a@a.a), July 28, 1999

Answers

a,

Great post!!!!!! Bravo.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWAyne@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

Paul has pigs?

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), July 28, 1999.

thanks a.

I'm a guy who is predisposed to think that my glass of water is half full...but much of the news seems to keep reminding me that I can drown in a teaspoon full of it.

Is that pessimistic or just realistic?

Mike

===================================================================

-- Michael Taylor (mtdesign3@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

OSTRICHES=have little heads & BIG-BUTT,S.

-- blindbirds. (dogs@zianet.com), July 28, 1999.

Since you claim "...every single thing on this page is backed by a URL and something called HARD EVIDENCE," I'd like to see your evidence. Please provide URLs or citations on the following:

1. Half of the Fortune 500 building war rooms and stockpiling 1000's of gallons of diesel.

2. Power plants quadrupling coal supplies.

3. Cities building multimillion dollar bunkers.

4. Paul Volcker's depression prediction.

5. George Soros depression prediction.

6. Mr. Yen's depression prediction.

7. Gartner Group and Mitre Corp prediction that an escalation of Y2K problems is happening now.

8. CIA Y2K predictions.

9. Mr. Cohen's prediction of biological terrorism on US soil and how it relates to Y2K.

10. National Guard Y2K mobilizations.

11. FBI canceling all leave for 60 days due to Y2K.

12. The Y2K Executive Orders that poised for enactment.

13. Your analysis on the current financial situation in Japan.

14. Your analysis on hedge funds "leveraged to the hilt."

15. Your analysis on why the District of Columbia is "toast."

16. Authorities scrambling to find "locomotive sized generators" to power the "warming centers".

17. SWIFT, the backbone if international commerce, screwed. Only 22% of banks worldwide "ready", whatever that means.

18. Bell & AT&T reporting that 50% of their vendors are lying about Y2K compliance.

21. Nuke plants, power distribution centers setting their clocks back to 1972 and hoping for the best.

22. 2 of 21 largest US cities "ready."

23. 10% of water treatment plants expected to fail by the governments own reports.

24. GAO constantly catching government agencies exaggerating progress and in outright lies.

25. Personal awareness alarmingly low.

26. Evidence of an increase in failures.

27. Evidence of a shortage of programmers.

28. Evidence programmer unemployment is due to management being too "cheap, scared and stupid."

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), July 28, 1999.

Ah, the erudite Mr. Decker: Swollen with questions and challenges, and bereft of answers. Did you miss every one of those threads where each of your questions has been presented? Or is the Alzheimer's kicking in again? If I were "a", I'd respond just as you have to challenges: "Do your own research." and "I'll do it if and when I feel like it." Just a reminder.

-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

I don't normally do this, but this does need some looking at:

a@a.a posted:
I cash out of the market near its all time peak, you say I've made a big mistake.
In fairness, LOTS of folks would say you have made a mistake. MANY of them are market timers. Many of them will eventually be right and many wrong. Timing markets is the most difficult thing to do in investing. Only a handful ever manage to do it successfully, and most don't do it twice.
I leave more money in the bank for rollover than even you plan to, I'm a "doomer". I store some gasoline and firewood, Maria says I'm nuts. Yet half of the Fortune 500 are building war rooms and stockpiling 1000's of gallons of diesel. Power plants quadrupling coal supplies. Cities building multimillion dollar bunkers. They must be Wackos. I predict a 50% chance of Yourdon's 10 year depression, I'm a nutcase, even though the former Chairman of the FED Paul Voliker, the world most successful financier George Soros and Japan's lead economist Dr. Yen suggest the same thing. Hoff interprets the SEC filings differently than industry expert Weiss and you claim that he's "handing me my ass on a platter", never mind that these reports were compiled by managers and lawyers falling over themselves to portray a bad situation in a favorable light.

No argument here, as one of the folk using Cory's listserv pointed out, when he asked students to grade themselves, their peers, and he assigned a grade, the ranges (over 10 or so years) average out to be 90-95 for themselves, 80-90 for peers and 70- 80 from the prof. Self reporting without external IV&V is NOT reliable.

We make it through a couple of key dates without meltdown and Flint issues the "all clear". And its just July 1999. The meltdown is yet to come. Gartner Group and Mitre Corp have predicted that the escalation of the effect is starting now. The CIA, State Dept, and dozens of other organizations too numerous to recount predict severe disruptions overseas and domino effect supply line problems, but I'm an idiot to think they will affect life in the US.
the problem here is that these reports are, as you point out, being used for some xenophobic, isolationist back- slapping, rather than learning.

India and Pakistan almost nuked each other last month. Defense Sec. Cohen just predicted biological terrorism on US soil. Many states' National Guards are mobilizing. FBI canceling all leave for 60 days, unprecedented. Executive Orders poised for enactment.

I might not include India and Pakistan as specific Y2K, though, my own words come back to haunt me here, in that I have said more than once that Y2K does NOT happen in a vaccuum. The SECDEF's latest "statement" gives me real pause. Pause Hell, it gives me the squealing willies! Partly because it seems that he is preparing to use Y2K as an excuse for actions that will, or may, infringe on the Constitution (again!).

Japan Inc. in the crapper. Trillions in debt. Almost as much as US. Hedge funds leveraged to the hilt. Almost took out the global economy a year ago. House of Cards. Built by Ponzi himself.
Here, we have PNG who has recently weighed in and he disputes this one point. Japan is MUCH MORE ready for Y2K than we in the West give them credit for. HOWEVER, the debt situation in Japan is such that their preparedness for Y2K may be rendered irrelevant in the waning months of 1999.

D.C. is toast. Authorities scrambling to find "locomotive sized generators" to power the "warming centers". Flint thinks its business as usual. And Maria ridicules folks for storing some rice and beans.
No discussion here, they ARE toast,and they know it.

SWIFT, the backbone if international commerce, screwed. Only 22% of banks worldwide "ready", whatever that means.

Last time I checked, SWIFT had tested fully compliant. If you have data otherwise, you might like to post it so we can all see it. The BANK position you sugest is about right from my reading, but the actual SWIFT system is OK, the data it transmits may be hosed, however. What this data status suggests is that even the compliant banks had better be ready to reject a LOT of transactions.

Bell & AT&T reporting that 50% of their vendors are lying about compliancy. Documented accounts of government and industry hiring PR firms to "spin" the news.
I believe this 50% comes from BellSouth. I have no reason to believe that this sample is too small to generalize from, as BellSouth uses a very large number of vendors. If this came from Fred's Tool and Die, I would question its usefulness for generalization.

Nuke plants, power distribution centers setting their clocks back to 1972 and hoping for the best. 2 of 21 largest US cities "ready" -- worldwide - don't ask. 10% of water treatment plants expected to fail by the governments own reports. GAO constantly catching government agencies exaggerating progress and in outright lies. GAO is worried. So is the Senate. Personal awareness alarmingly low. Jokes made in the media about how laughable the y2k issue is. Officials smiling through gritted teeth warning of a three day storm.
Which, three day scenario, we have ALL more or less discarded.
The Pentagon pleading with Russia to share strategic early warning data. While they stage war games and threaten to nuke us.

AND have indicated that they have NO intention of collaborating after our Fornicator in Chief enscrews their racial, and ethnic brethren.

Society in the worst shape since the days of the fall of Rome.
WORLD society currently looks LOT like the immediate pre- Fall, with MTV/cable/satelite TV as the circuses, the US Welfare, and UK Dole, being the bread.

The flood of system failures increasing. How long before the limited supply of programmers is overwhelmed? Many are sitting unemployed because management is to cheap, scared and stupid to have utilized them.<>br>
This "flood" is something that is not very visible. Why is it not visible? Partially because there is no responsibility to report them, and a serious DISincentive to do so. The company lawyers suggest that reportage will cause problems in the marktetplace for the stocks and this would reflect negatively on the CEO's fiduciary responsibility to protect the stock price. If MY lawyers were telling me this I would certainly only let out the good news.

How many Chernobyls will we have Flint? How many Bophals? You yourself have said you expect these types of things, that is, when you're in a mood to think realistically and not just ridicule the messengers. All of this was predicted. By Flint's nemesis Paul Milne. But Flint can't accept that. He must not let that truth sink in. This pig farmer cannot be another Noah. Even though every single thing on this page is backed by a URL and something called HARD EVIDENCE. Flint would rather waste our time with pep talks and pontification on what "is" is. You say the forum is dying but the number of new threads bringing disturning news has skyrocketed. Maybe whats dying is the pollanna mentality.

The image of "dying" is not accurate. By MOST measures, the forum is alive and well, thread count (warp or woof, i wonder) is high, new thread count is high, post numbers are up, troll posts are up, and flames are getting more desperate. If the posters can't discuss the point of the forum, they are taking to discussing the way the discussion is framed, which is the last refuge before capitulation, IMNTBHO.

snip to end...

Chuck, a Night Driver

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 28, 1999.

I guess I gotta read before I hit the post button.
LOL
Talk about being a bit late out of the box!!

chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 28, 1999.

Mr D
2 reported by many who have researched 10Q's of power companies
3- NY, LA, Columbus, OH. Need more??
7, 8, 9, 10, 11 are in recent news articles
14 is available in any analysis of the LTC fiasco. It hasn't changed materially
15 and 16 are from DC press themselves.
18 reported recently from I believe BellSouth
22 is from, I believe an AP story referencing GAO but I may need a backstop on this one.
In fairness, I believe the answer on 23 is that Bennett has said that "We simply don't know if the water supplies will be OK because we have not gotten any answers to our queries."
24 is common knowledge for folks who have been following GAO reports.
27 references a list serv post of JUST the DC, I believe, want ads where 1000 plus IT want ads were found this past Sunday.


Chuck

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), July 28, 1999.

Chuck, we haven't seen the most desperate yet. A new strategy has appeared today, however. Is it coincidence that two threads are started, one by Chicken Little and one by Andy Ray which are pure religion-baiting tactics? This smacks of a new level of desperation, alright. While I'm for no censorship here, it wouldn't bother me in the least if I never saw another posting by either of these kids again.

-- Elbow Grease (LBO Grise@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

You know, I have close family members who have been blind to all the data I've sent them. I *love* these people and have been forced to set them adrift on their own cruise ship of 'fat and happy'. When I show up *here* and am forced to observe the regulars (and lurkers) who engage the *same old sparkless group* with damning information to their clueless arguements CONTINUOSLY, day after day after DAY, the thought that these same individuals are so impressed with their big brains is hysterical. What a SCREAM. I can only find myself looking forward to the next desperate level of STUPID, they will devise in their quest for ??????

Remember Pollys, (you know who you are)...Only your hairdresser knows for sure. Bwaaaahahahahoooooo

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 28, 1999.

Just three comments: 1) When did I post that you were nuts? 2) I just saw a post with your name that said you buy things now that before you wouldn't have bought. Something about not putting money in the bank and buying things thay may come in handy. Now you say you leave money in the bank. Which is it a? 3) US "pleading" with Russia. You know this for a fact, huh? Of course, doomers don't spin they just add a few words.

I'm waiting for my lesson a. If you think this is it, you'll need to brush up on your education courses.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), July 28, 1999.

Could he make reservations with the same organization you took your course in ' ego control' from? Maybe we should all look around for a higher success rate, before commiting ourselves financially.

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 28, 1999.

If anyone ever needed proof that "Mr. Decker" didn't read the news or this forum in depth, just look at this: "Since you claim "...every single thing on this page is backed by a URL and something called HARD EVIDENCE," I'd like to see your evidence. Please provide URLs or citations on the following...."

All "Mr. Decker" would need to do is scroll down the page and read the headlines for immediate access to many of those. This forum has been alive with info since its inception, and these are current reports from legitimate sources, ALL of which have appeared on this forum. (Maybe Maria can give him the link to the Senate Report -- that was provided to her on yet another thread.)

But, I guess the fact that he doesn't read the news shouldn't stop him from having opinions, right?

Anita Evangelista

-- Anita Evangelista (ale@townsqr.com), July 28, 1999.

I am impreszsed with the Polly level of stupidity, but the interesting thing is that some of them--like doomers suck and corrine--startto get it. Then they stop posting. Why is that? Anyway, they think they are annoying us, but actually it serves as a kind of perverse entertainment and doesn't stop people from posting serious threads.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), July 28, 1999.

Folks,

It is helpful when an author provides citations. This way, readers can read the actual source documents... rather than single sentence summaries. Recently, Y2Knewswire "reported" on a Pentagon test involving "only" 43 systems. The original DoD press release indicated the systems tested involved 2.5 billion transactions worth over $80 million per annum... roughly double of last year's ecommerce over the Internet. Y2Knewswire had access to this data, but chose to present the information in manner to support a viewpoint. Those people who read only the Y2Knewswire story came away with a much different impression than those who read the source documents.

One of the problems of the Y2K debate is the difficulty in differentiating between fact and speculation. Some of what "a" says is pure opinion, i.e., evaluating society as in "the worst shape" since Rome. When he say Paul Volcker is "suggesting" we are headed for a depression, I'd like to read exactly what Mr. Volcker said and in what context. Scanning down the page of active threads, I do not see this information readily available. I am simply requesting a courtesy that the author may or may not extend.

Regards,

-- Mr. Decker (kcdecker@worldnet.att.net), July 28, 1999.

Mr. Decker:

Citations have been provided in previous posts. Do your OWN lookups. We've already done it, and don't need to waste time doing it again.

-- Dennis (djolson@pressenter.com), July 28, 1999.

Thank you for the heads up. It's always nice to know who people really are. Some of us just don't need 'proof'. Others aren't quite as lucky. Anyone who would participate with this group, in 'their' livingroom, need not explain themselves any further to me.

Some of these guys USE manners like Eddie Haskel, hiding behind their 'honest and civil debate' phoo-phoo. Don't make me sick....... They can whine about Doomers all they want, at least you know exactly were you stand with a Doomer. We may be abrupt and occasionally rude, but we're honest, even when we're wrong!

-- Will continue (farming@home.com), July 29, 1999.

WC - you can always reach me through Diane's address. ('a' too.)

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), July 29, 1999.

A truly excellent post a. Sums it all up. Right on the money.

Then I read double-d's post andI'm truly flabbergasted - has this guy been reading this forum at all, reading the press, doing his homework like we all have.

I believe actually that he has but he is so disingenuous that he has to resort to the lame tactic he employed - that of asking for "proof"... as if the URL's don't exist...

DO YOUR OWN FUCKING RESEARCH DECKER - OK???

My God this guy is pathetic.

And as for Maria's contribution - how old are you lady, 8, 9? Do grow up dear, please do yourself a favour.

The evidence is all around you BOTH, just open your eyes, read, digest and WORK IT OUT - it's not rocket science - it will not be a bump in the road.

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 01, 1999.

Andy telling me to grow up!! This coming from a guy who boo-hooed about his jail time!! What a joke you are Andy.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), August 02, 1999.