We're prepared. The world isn't. Then what? Let's say that the US and it's people have pretty much done the best they can, food and supplies stocking, new compliant programs in everything possible, we all have extra cash on hand, plenty of water, power plants are generating smoothly and all is pretty much smoothe sailing here in the good'ol U.S. of A. Now, we acknowledge that the rest of the world is pretty much screwing up on preparations for whatever reasons - ignorange, disbelief, lack of money or just don't know about y2k. What likely scenarios and chain of events will play out? Let's leave out really outlandish, though possible actions by untold numbers of lunatics worldwide. I mean, say within 2 - 4 months our gas deliveries will slow to an ants pace, tires will quadruple in price due to rubber problems, many of those cheapo, disposable plastic goods found at Walmarts, K-marts etc. will now begin costing 5 times as much because they will have to be made of real wood and steel, all due to computer related manufacturing and delivery problems in China and Asia. I'm not posing this question rhetorically. I would like those with real knowledge and experience in this area to clue me in. Thanks for your time and thought in responding to this. Johan

-- johan (reisch@c-zone.net), August 12, 1999

Answers

I am not an expert but I don't think there is enough factories left in the US to produce the amount of items we use everyday. Just about all the big name brand companies have moved their factories overseas. I cannot think of any place in the US that makes shoes. I have tried many times to buy only USA shoes, but it is impossible. Our feet may be the cause of the downfall of the US.

-- Carol (glear@usa.net), August 12, 1999.

The scenario plays quickly to a deep recession or depression. Some foreign factories will come on line, but entire supply chains may have to be recreated...and companies have gone out of business, employees have left for the hinterlands, etc. This is why it could take 10 years or so to recover...

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 12, 1999.

SAS shoes are manufactured in San Antonio, Texas. They are very good shoes but a bit pricey for everyday wear. I must have them so I bought two pair during the week end that the tax moratorium was in effect.

-- Nadine Zint (nadine@hillsboro.net), August 12, 1999.

Johan,

In your scenario you have the majority of people in the US prepared. I think that is probably not the case. I only recently 'got it' and have been having a hard time coming up with time, money, energy and solutions to prepare. And I have at least a basic (although recent) understanding of the problem. Most of the US population is not thinking about y2k or thinking about it in terms of the 'big picture.' I know because 6 weeks ago, that was me.

In your scenario, things will be bad. Recent discussions on these forums have also talked about prescription drugs being manufactured overseas. Distruptions in transportation will impact on shipping supplies. I can't even really begin to address the problems. But I believe that in your scenario things will turn out better than in reality because in your scenario you have stated "let's say that the US and its people have pretty much done the best they can." I don't think we have.

-- winter wondering (winterwondering@yahoo.com), August 12, 1999.

Can you say "NAFTA"......????....Or the bottom line ???

-- Richard (Kingrz@webtv.net), August 12, 1999.

New Balance manufactures 40% of its current production in the US. (three plants in Maine, one in Boston) Another 30% is "Made in the USA with foreign and domestic components "

-- ExCop (yinadral@juno.com), August 18, 1999.