I believe it was in discover magazine where it was mentioned by the national disease watch group (whatever thier name is), that the hong kong chicken scare reminded them of 1918. Some strain of influenza showed up in about 1905 or so and was a sort of test run by influenza that they think might have been the 1918 influnza in evolution. The point they made was that the recent hong kong chicken to human influenza jump may be a first try that will be vastly more successful and deadly to us in it's next emergence. What happened in 1918? Suffering, death, WW1 is thought to have come to an early end as a result of the influenza. What happened during the bubonic plague? That may help you write about level 10. We are spoiled rotten so we may react badly to any disturbance, but people are basically good. One plus is that this y2k business is hitting us all and at about the same time. When there is 22 known fistfights across the nation at stores during -furbie- sales, people surely will get ugly. Despair and depression and drug and alcohol and family discord will increase. But then again, they are high now and we are in a land of plenty. I have a book about the great depression and human spirit and youth's need to be happy kept peeking through the gloom. The movies and media kicked in snow white escapeism and shirly temple sad/happy goodness. Men's self esteem, if based on work identity, crashed. Transitioning to poverty ruins peoples lives unless they find happiness in each other. Some will do ok, others will not. As always. I will buy your book.

-- bill burke (bill52@rocketmail.com), August 13, 1999

Answers

Bill,

I haven't studied the history of the Bubonic Plague enough to know whether it simply ran its course, or whether mankind "conquered" it in some fashion...

You mentioned that you have a book about the Great Depression ... could you give us its title so some of us can track it down and take a look?

Thanks, Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 13, 1999.

Frederick Lewis Allen wrote a book about the 10 years encompassing the twenties and called the book -Only Yesterday-. Then he wrote a book titled -Since Yesterday- about the years between September 3,1929-Sept 3, 1939. New York Times called him "A master historical journalist!"

I think he is exactly what you are looking for in a review of the great depression. I will send it to you. For your own privacy, you can e mail me an address to send it to. The thirties may give us a view, but then again, people of that time were used to hard times and working long hours with small material gains. People were very frugal already and raised a lot of food locally and were certainly more dominated by religion, which must have helped keep the anarchy down. Today, egad, just make gas as expensive as europe is now and social devastation will occur.

Careful when removeing the book from it's envelope, the pages have mostly come loose from the binding.

-- Bill Burke (bill52@rocketmail.com), August 15, 1999.