Bibliographic entry (nonfiction):

Kirkpatrick Sale, Rebels Against the Future : The Luddites and Their War on the Industrial Revolution : Lessons for the Computer Age

The beginnings of the industrial revolution represented a massive disruption in the existing technological and economic paradigm. A self-employed artisans lost their livihoods to the mills, a protest movement arose -- the Luddite rebellion. Kirkpatrick Sale has written a fascinating history of the Luddite movement, and this book is well worth reading.

It also raises the question: might Y2K be the catalyst for the flip side of the Luddite rebellion -- sort of a matching bookend on the other side of history? What if Y2K closes the factories and workplaces, throwing millions out of work? Is a movement back to small-scale production by self-employed artisans the answer? Is it impossible to turn back the clock? Or have the Luddites finally been proven right? Does the fact that it is technologically POSSIBLE to do something mean that we SHOULD do it? Or should technology be subjected to social control and not employed without a complete examination of its impacts, pro and con?

-- Stefan Stackhouse (stefans@mindspring.com), August 14, 1999

Answers

Stefan,

Keep in mind that we may not have an all-or-nothing situation -- i.e., some industries and jobs could be disrupted, while others muddle through. More important, some technologies may be disrupted and others may muddle through.

The current problems experienced by MCI make it a little more difficult for me to suggest this scenario, but let's assume for the moment that telecommunications and the Internet manage to survive Y2K relatively unscathed. In that case, a lot of white-collar jobs could gravitate out of the city, to be performed by "cottage-industry" workers.

Obviously, that sort of thing is already going on -- but that's just the point: if Y2K is merely a "moderate" crisis, it could accelerate some trends that are already underway.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 15, 1999.