Do you know why people can't see the threat of % and it's impact? It makes me wonder how much people really know about how the world trading effects us, how long would it take to put the US economy in bad shape if the economy suffered a constant 15% regression of foriegn trading? / or 15% of US regression?

-- Rod Sterger (remerica@hotmail.com), August 18, 1999

Answers

Rod,

Interesting point, but you're asking it in terms of TODAY'S situation - - i.e., why can't people see the big picture and use it to more accurately assess what's likely to happen 132 days from now?

But this whole Humpty Dumpty project is based on what's likely to happen in the POST-y2k world. From that perspective, your question is equally interesting: in Jan 2000, will people be capable of seeing the big picture, and understanding how the crisis came to be? Or will they be willing to listen to a very "narrow" explanation of the problem that puts all the blame on (a) the wicked computer companies, (b) the wicked terrorists, (c) the wicked people who hoarded food, (d) the wicked Republicans, (e) the wicked Democrats, (f) the wicked Saddam in Iraq, etc, etc, etc.

Most of us tend to be near-sighted when looking forward, but we claim to have 20-20 hindsight. If that's the case, we can hope that a reasonable majority of people will be able to look back, in Jan 2000, and say, "Aha, NOW i understand what was going on, and what led up to this mess! Wow! I want to make sure that we change things so that it won't happen again!" My worry is that our leaders are likely to find a convenient scapegoat to blame everything on, and that the general public may turn out to be so gullible that they'll believe it.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), August 21, 1999.

Perhaps they don't want to see the whole picture. I got into a y2k discussion with one of the tenants in our building who is an Engineer, runs his own business supplying process equipment to the oilpatch. He is very familiar with SCADA and knows that there will be certain failures, but he is more concerned about embedded chips. He has grave concerns about electricity supply. However, he had not even identified the domino effect. Today he told me that he discussed the situation last night with his wife and they decided to put an air-tight stove in their mountain retreat. Luckily for him that he already had a vacation home. When I asked him why he hadn't fully identified the possible extent of failures in y2k earlier, his reply was that he was so busy with his business that he didn't have the time to devote to the subject. I think most people today are busier than they have ever been. No one thinks the present business boom is subject traditional cycles. One interesting point he did make which I agree with is that our national newspapers have very little y2k info in the recent past. Last January, there were stories everywhere. Now the public thinks that the majority of the problem is solved. If the Gartner Group is right in predicting the majority of failures will show up in Q4 1999, then I believe the public will panic in the same time frame.

-- Rick Reilly (rreilly@home.com), August 18, 1999.

I agree with Rick...many people don't want to hear the bad news, don't want to think of the potential disaster, don't want anything to disturb a nice life. They'd rather not have "wet blankets" spoiling their party. And when TEITRAH, they'd rather have government deal with the problem that their inaction/unwillingness to face the problem created.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 19, 1999.

Hi.

I agree with Rick as well but not with his Gartner Group comment. If you turn to page 17 of the most recent Gartner Group report (http: //www.gartnerweb.com/public/static/y2k/00081966.html) and check the graph at the top of the page you will note that they predict the majority of the Y2K failures to occur in the first quarter of 2000, not the final quarter of 1999 as Rick has indicated. However, the final quater of '99 which commences in a mere 6 weeks will be "interesting times."

Jim Standen (Real e-mail address)

-- Jim Standen (jstanden@ucalgary.ca), August 20, 1999.

Yes, just today Dade, a major supplier of hospital laboratory equiptment and reagents lost control of their entire inventory when they slammed in the latest Y2K fix into their system. I would've thought that they had a backup but all our orders are still lost.

It will indeed be an interesting quarter.

-- LM (latemarch@usa.net), August 20, 1999.

I think that when historians of the future are researching y2k, this will be one of the most interesting questions ... why didn't more people understand it since there was so much information available.

The funny thing about the whole thing for me is that there is so much good news press and such a complacent attitude that I am constantly thinking that maybe I am overly concerned. My wife who lives with me day to day has agreed to all of the changes, but she has an emotional need to believe that "nothing will happen".

-- Thom Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.net), August 20, 1999.

Thom,

This analogy has been stated before, but it's still valid I think. Namely, that the majority of Jews in Nazi Germany did not get alarmed and leave there during the window of opportunity to do so. Only a small percent saw the dangers lurking ahead within the Hitler programs. They tried to convince friends and family, I'm sure, but mostly without success. They sold out, pulled up stakes, and left. The rest, the majority, tried to remain "optimistic" that nothing really bad would happen, in some cases even as they were herded onto the trains for death camps. Such is human nature. Go figure.

-- Gordon (gpconnolly@aol.com), August 21, 1999.

"Only a small percent saw the dangers lurking ahead within the Hitler programs. They tried to convince friends and family, I'm sure, but mostly without success. They sold out, pulled up stakes, and left."

Initially my husband and I looked around...TX,NM,AZ,OK...for an alternative to our current location. We are within 35 miles of the DFW metroplex... Here, we own our home. Here, we know our neighbors. We almost bought ten acres about 40 miles north in the country. And now we are glad we didn't....it looked good, it was remote compared to this...but then we learned of the militia groups to the east and south of the location.

I've also had occasion to talk with the wife of a friend who purchased property 'out a ways'...I had thought she was happy about the move... as she's the kind of person who can raise, slaughter and cook her own rabbits, goats, chickens...etc. In other words, a real homesteader with years of practice. Her comment to me was: 'The people who live around our new property are cut-throat sleeze...even in good times you could be robbed or end up with your throat literally cut.' She doesn't buy the oft repeated idea that because people are currently poor that they have more capacity to adapt to having even less..and therefore this environment may be a safer environment. That because they live in the country, they automatically possess any of the skills required for self-sufficiency. My point being, that what passes as country living these days is generally a febble echo of country living just twenty years ago.

We have other friends who lived in one of the smaller towns of NM and had to leave because of the harassment of the local militia whose attitude was: Either you're with us or you're the enemy. The thugs have already taken over the countryside. For this reason, we have opted to stay where we know the territory, the people, the risks...rather than take on risks we can't possibly evaluate because we won't know what they are until it's too late.

-- Shelia Massey (Shelia@active-stream.com), August 23, 1999.

2000 years ago the Roman Empire revolutionised water distribution through the use of lead pipes. This miracle of technology brought clean, fresh water to the homes of tens of thousands. Of course it also slowly poisoned the populace and contributed to the collapse of an Empire, or so I read.

In the last 50 years alone we've had many more such miracles: Asbestos, DDT, thalydamide, nuclear power....

Hindsight is really just one facet of common sense. Need I say more?

-- JQ (onca@hotmail.com), August 23, 1999.