Much as we might wish that fellow citizens would prepare for Y2K, it isn't going to happen in any greater intensity than is happening currently. There will be no smoking gun "document" between now and rollover (cf the "Pentagon Papers" document today).

There might or might not be a smoking gun "event" in 1999: we have no way of knowing.

Here is what you might be failing to take into account: Joe Sixpack has KNOWN for some time that Y2K might be TEOTWAWKI. True. That is NOT new news. However, the conventional wisdom has ridiculed it and the public, absent true national leadership, will bet on the conventional wisdom to avoid being made the butt of ridicule (that's our job, see, bend over).

For that reason, it wouldn't matter if the NY Times printed the exact table on page one that Lord has on his website. After suitable shudders and grimaces ("Mabel, get a load of this!"), it would be back to business as normal.

In fairness, it is almost impossible even for GIs to wrap one's mind around the possible scope of Y2K impacts, especially on August 19, 1999 since it really IS too late to prepare the nation at this stage.

That a table like this CAN be authentic (as Koskinem admitted) as late as June, 1999 (ie, that these events are even HYPOTHETICALLY possible) is another subject. Anyone with a brain can see that such possible impacts are breathtakingly beyond anything this country has ever faced internally in its history --- yet our clue-ful, Y2K aware national leaders steadfastly encourage us "not to worry".

You see, the Navy thinks these things MIGHT happen as late as JUNE 1999, but they're just worry warts.

The only thing we don't know (and may never find out, even if TEOTWAWKI) is whether reliable insiders have reliably informed the White House that an infrastructure smashup is inevitable. If so, the leadership silence is the most criminal in American history by the widest possible margin. If not, well, we don't elect Presidents these days to be leaders but poll-takers and performers.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 19, 1999

Answers

And, BigDog, even if every paper that picks up the AP story prints it above the fold on page one tomorrow, IT'S STILL SUMMER and Joe and Jane are more concerned about finishing up the vacation mindset and getting the kids back to school...

-- pshannon (pshannon@inch.com), August 19, 1999.

A couple of things to consider, Big Dog, even though I would not be surprised if you are largely right about the ever sleeping John Q. Public:

1) Time is growing short, and the previous Y2K stories that John Q. has been aware of may yet have a cumulative effect. This is a mighty big straw that got put on the camel's back today, it may do it.

2) In terms of the question I always ask: what (small) number of people who become Get Its will it take to dry up the supply lines for any further personal preparation, I suspect that even if the bulk of the public is still asleep at the switch, a story such as this one -- which is "official" -- may wake up "enough" people, so that its Game Over for personal preps.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.net), August 19, 1999.

You're right on every count BG,But I think this possible event is so vast in it's implications that most people can't or won't allow themselves to contemplate the horror of it. But I do think something like this will be the trigger to start what we all know is coming. As sure as the sun rises, apprehension will become greater the closer we get to y2k. I predict financial chaos ( bank runs, stock market) first,followed by a buying panic. And then all beys are off!

-- citizen (lost@sea.com), August 19, 1999.

'All bets are off'

-- citizen (lost@sea.com), August 19, 1999.

I'm not as patronizing towards the "public" as it might appear. The gov-media have done a far better job spinning than they have remediating. I mean, it's REALLY professional.

The most intriguing thing about this is that Lord's contact, whom Lord respects, obviously didn't think this was "old" news and wanted it "outed", taking personal risks to do so. As did Lord himself.

The kewlness of the spin is that it makes one wonder, gee, why would one take any personal risks for info that is so old, lame, weird, etc? I mean, it's not .... important .... information.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), August 19, 1999.

In fairness, it is almost impossible even for GIs to wrap one's mind around the possible scope of Y2K impacts, especially on August 19, 1999 since it really IS too late to prepare the nation at this stage.

Big Dog

This is something that has conserned me for quite awhile. It took me 8 months before the message sunk in that there is a major threat (failure of Governments) and that was trigered by a GAO report a year ago. Y2K is a huge picture to grasp. I am sure many of the regulars on the forum still are "drawing" the picture.

The problem here is getting the average folk to prepare for the possible mass failures that can occur. It just sounds like something from a book. Enjoy it while you read it then forget it. I think that it takes months of study just to get the smaller picture. Now of course this might not be the case as there is alot more information that is credible. Still if a person is alerted now, are they going to have the motivation to provide a secure comfort zone no matter what happens? I think not. We are running out of time to even worry about the TEOTWAWKI aspect and getting folks to figure out the whys and wherefores.

Infomagic, Milne, and Scary Gary are dead consepts. The time doesn't remain to do anything about the worst case senerio. I have lived in isolation agianst natures worst. There is just no way to deal with the situation in the time left.

As you state: "The only thing we don't know (and may never find out, even if TEOTWAWKI) is whether reliable insiders have reliably informed the White House that an infrastructure smashup is inevitable."

Are they even able to picture the Y2K problem effectively???

I think it always comes back to the vision thingy. Some have it and some don't.

Reading the Navy report makes me wonder what is in store for Canada. That is a bad vision. Us Canadians will find out in a few weeks I guess. That is when the Army is issueing their report.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), August 19, 1999.

Bid Dog.

I posted this to the thread on Paula Gordon. Go to the Appendix at the bottom of chapter 4 to read more. Not only does the Administration know, but they have made a decision to do nothing until rollover. At least according to this Congressman and others who have confided in Paula Gordon.

"

Congessman Kuchinich in response to a question by Paula about national leadership:

"But I think that that belies a greater challenge here which is to step up to responsibility and claim leadership of a nation and say what we have to do as a country and rally (the) country around it and (that's) not being done, as you say, (it's) purposefully (not being done).

Purposefully not being done. Sometimes I need to be reminded how some think. In this case, when reading the appendix, I noticed that the congreessman thinks political repercussions first. This includes answering a question about other politicians. They have no motives but politics and to look at it in any other light is to miss the point."

It does not matter what the consequences are to the consituency. Death and suffering are secondary to politics.

-- Mike Lang (webflier@erols.com), August 19, 1999.

Again I'm with big Dog on this one - I beieve that there will be no panic up to and including rollover, the only caveat I would throw in to the mix would be bank runs - I really believe that this is the wild card, the smoking gun that BD talks about. The reason I say this - bank runs cannot by definition be controlled - they can be set off by events outside the USA - e.g. Bank Runs in Japan causing cross- defaults internationally - pictures of Japanese businessmen beating at the doors of closed banks would be a powerful motivator for J6P to go get some cash here - similarly, a stock market crash combined with y2k fears could have the same result.

We'll see.

In the meantime the spinmeisters are doing a superb job. Just like the Nazis during WW II - very few Germans really knew what was going on in Dachau and Auschwitz, same this time around with y2k...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), August 19, 1999.

" In terms of the question I always ask: what (small) number of people who become Get Its will it take to dry up the supply lines for any further personal preparation"

First, we must define what "Get Its" are. In my mind, (and we've discussed this a year ago at length, it's archived), a GI is a person that "gets the big picture right away". Personally, I don't believe that there are anymore potential "Get Its" remaining out there that hasn't heard of Y2K and its potential ramifications. I don't know about you, but if I had just heard of Y2K via CNN this winter when they made interviews, I would have started doing research right then and there. I would have bought books referenced, or go to my library's net access if I didn't have it already at home.

So then, unless another 10-20% of potential "Get Its" are living already bunkered in the mountains and cut off of any media sources for the past 5-10 years, I don't believe there will be a sudden surge in Y2K awareness and resulting panic/stempede.

By December I already decided this, there was an interesting thread discussing just that. The source was from an article discussing the likelyhood of a general public awareness and eventual panic. I forget who wrote the article and can't find the thread (maybe someone else remembers it?).

The general public is content with the reports from the gov. that all is going well and that's that. They will panic when they actually feel Y2K concequences at home, such as a disruption/shortage that are atributed to y2K specificly by the media.

They will not prepare, because it is not viewed as "cool" by the media. Simple.

-- Chris (%$^&^@pond.com), August 19, 1999.

Exactly Andy. Everything is spin and propaganda and "perception management", commonly refered to as demouguogery or bullshit.

I think Goebbels would be awestruck at how successfully this Administration has spun the American people into warring camps and complacent stupor. I think we will be doubly awestruck at how successful the campaign will be to demonize prepared churches, groups and individuals. Krystallnacht won't even begin to compare with the vitriol that will be unleashed on those this administration has targeted for blame-shift.

The only question now is what symbol those that have prepared will be forced to wear before being herded into ghettos and gas chambers.

I'm betting on fringe.

Y2K Pro says it will be tinfoil.

I think fringe makes a better fashion statement than foil.

Do they make it in camouflage?

-- INVAR (gundark@sw.net), August 19, 1999.

Big Dog and pshannon...truth. Nothing is going to panic the citizens. Even if it is conclusively proven that this mystery report was never available on any publicly accessible website, forcing Koskinen to admit his "error", which is published (along with the report)on the front page of every local newspaper tomorrow morning, the people will not panic. It would be a very brief ripple on the fabric of the collective conscious...like Kosovo, Columbine, JFK Jr., and all the rest of the ripples. Our attention span is VERY short and we require constantly changing stimulus. I don't believe we can credit or blame the Y2K spinmeisters for this. I honestly believe that even if the government and media joined together with the purpose of sounding a deafening alarm, one that required more than a few days of sustained action on the part of the people, it would be largely wasted.

-- RUOK (RUOK@yesiam.com), August 19, 1999.

The President and Vice President knew as far back as late 1995 that an Infrastructure Smashup was possible, and without National leadership was Inevitable.

Check in the archives...I believe that the dude doing the briefing was named Rubin...I remember that he said that Clinton got it immediately, but Gore was slow on the uptake but he was 'educable'!!!

THEY BOTH KNEW IN LATE '95, AND CHOSE TO DO NOTHING!!!

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), August 19, 1999.