90% or more of the comments and questions on both discussion boards on this site deal with what's likely to happen in 2000. It occurs to me that even if nnext year is really bad, we'll still have the benefits of the momentum of 1999, when everything was humming along nicely to help mitigate the problems. If Y2K is as bad as it could easily be, say 7 to 9 on a disaster scale of 1 to 10, then 2001 will be far worse than 2000 because we'll have nothing productive to carry over from 2000 to 2001. That's what's really scary.

-- cody varian (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 24, 1999

Answers

Yeah, its scarey! And most of us will be running out of preps by that time. We are having a second well put in with a pitcher pump because we are concerned that even with 2000 gal of diesel, we could run out and not be able to fire the big generator. I am going back to the drawing board and thinking about those preps that will last forever, like wheat, pasta (I have good pasta from 1974)etc. I am thinking more of those items that can be depended upon to last for at least 5 years.

Taz...who is off to WalMart this morning.

-- Taz (Tassie@aol.com), August 25, 1999.

As I progressed on my preps, I considered the same thing. Mine centered around the fact that farmers will have difficulty in getting the year 2000 seeds into the ground. (Will they be able to get loans, seeds, fertilizer, gasoline, etc?) So, I started thinking of when the next grain plantings could be made. With considerable good luck, this might be in the spring of 2001. So, I planned a skimpy, barely adequate addition to my original preparations, carrying me well intl the 3rd quarter of 2001. I don't have much more room now in our rather small basementless house!

-- LurkerII (Lurker@stillalert.com), August 25, 1999.

I think the short answer is food storage, and the long answer is non hybrid seeds. As 98% of the seeds planted ARE hybrid ( and a large percentage comes from overseas .. S.Am. if I remember posting on the old Yourdon site) , these shipments may be interupted , depending on how heavily their infrastructure is affected. I think you have to look for the "old" farmland, still under cultivation and/or not yet covered by housing. Then you have to ask around to find who has a working tractor, WITH PLOW. You can still find garden tools at flea markets/garage sales/tag sales and make your dollar go farther. Does anyone still have a dairy herd/sheep in the area ? A vet that lives near you. I have found all of the above. Lastly, and most importantly, you have to have this in a defendable area; i.e. you will probably be on your own if your town can no longer collect taxes to pay police ; and , especially if there is NO dial tone ! Decide on when and where you will hold your first meeting of the DGIs to organize the available "talent"; define the area you need (and can guard from two and four legged theives) AND, lay down the simple rules; EVERYBODY WORKS ! If you don't work, you don't eat. WORK comes FIRST !!! I would like to add two bits of information from personal experience. I put canned vegetables in the cellar for the Cuban missle crisis. Five years later we moved and I "discovered" then, but my wife would not have them put with or regular supply, so back to the new basement. There they sat till they were 9 years old, rusting, but my son and I ate every last can, as my divorce left me with only ninety dollars a month to live on, after morgtage and electric bill. Have also eaten 11 year old canned goods, that were rusting through (experiment) Still here ! However, one can avoid the rusting of canned goods by waxing entire can (lable must be removed, or rusting will occur there, I found out) , OR, better yet, use enamel spray paint to cover the cans. Home canned food will also last 8-10 years too. I know, your saying, there will be vitamine loss. Right ! So stock vitamines too ! Also, for real long range , if it's a 10 (Infomagic), put away the seeds from your favorite fruits, especially apples and peaches. Think of your grandchildren, NOT just yourself . Eagle

-- Hal Walker (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), August 25, 1999.

Finding old farm equipment and supplies is only half the battle. Finding people who actually know how to use them will be much harder. I recently purchased a non-electric cream separater for only $6.00 at an auction. Seeing as I live in a farming community I figured it would be easy to find someone who would remember how to use one. Wrong! Three weeks later and the closest I've come is having a woman in her 60's say that she remembered her Grandfather using one.

It's so sad that all this knowledge of how to do things without technology could be largely lost to this generation and there isn't enough time to learn everything. The best purchase I've made this year is the book Encyclopedia of Country Living. It's a back to the old way "Bible."

-- Kimberly Hott (ckhott@urec.net), August 25, 1999.

I'm laying up at least 2 years worth of garden seeds... I'm also planting some fruit trees that won't fully bear until at least 2001. Chickens, and similar sustainable preparations continue.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), August 27, 1999.

Cody, I think you're right. Even if we have only a 4-7, things are likely to get worse before they get better. I may be wrong in my view of history, but as I recall, things were much worse in 1932 than in 1930. And nearer in time, things are worse in Japan now than they were when their market first tanked several years ago - at least judging from the continuing rise in suicides. I think we're in for 'interesting times'.

-- Tricia the Canuck (tricia_canuck@hotmail.com), August 28, 1999.

Tricia: You're right about the Great Depression. The market blowoff happened in October, 1929 but the immediate effect was felt only by the wealthy, some of whom lost everything. The ordinary person began to feel the effects of this huge deflation a year or so later when the lack of credit began to dry up business projects. As sales decreased, jobs were lost, creating further sales drops, etc., until in 1932 things were really desperate for everyone.

2000 and beyond will likely be different from 1929-1932 or so because things move so much faster today (due to computers mostly; imagine that!) and if credit dries up from y2k (inevitable in my opinion), jobs will be lost very rapidly, particularly since we're a service economy rather than an agricultural or manufacturing economy. I expect things to deteriorate steadily all through 2000 and then really get nasty in 2001. Past that I just can't get a grasp.

-- cody (cody@y2ksurvive.com), August 28, 1999.

...here's another intellectual morsal to chew on.....

Considering a level 10 event, our national defenses will NOT be as they are now, alert and quickly responsive. Do we have any national or international factions or peoples who would absolutely LOVE to get their piece of our farmlands, water rights, or some other geographical location that might be attractive that may be only found within our borders?

I believe most of the concerns found on these pages carry a level of merit based upon the seriousness of the possibilities, but if one is to pursue this train of thought, now would not be the time to be afraid of the altitude. Get macro and take in The Big Picture.

It isn't a pretty picture up there.

-- mike mercado (cinderelaman@lds.net), August 29, 1999.

We have also prepared for the long haul. We own a small farm and all of our farm equipment is either horse drawn converted for tractor use or 1st generation tractor equipment that can be converted back to horse use. We have draft horses as well as riding horses and a variety of other farm animals. I want to buy non-hybrid corn seed to store if we have enough money. I have put aside enough garden seed for at least one year if not 2 and my garden will feed a large number of people. We have milk goats for fresh milk for us and extra for others and chickens for eggs. I have stored enough wheat and grains for at least a year if not more if we are careful.

One thing going for farmers is that the average age for a family farmer is over 55 and many of these farms have old equipment stored up in the barns or buried in the ditch out back. Farmers are tinkerers and can scrounge up stuff to make things work. They may need gasoline or diesel or maybe horses. Many farmers could plant back those hybrids from the last harvest and they will grow half-way decent for a couple of years until enough non-hybrid can be grown for seed.

You are right that the people that know how to use the non-electric equipment are either Old Order Amish or about 80 yrs old. We have figured out much ourselves, but still live a modern lifestyle due to time constraints right now. (We both work off the farm in order to survive).

My concern is that once people make it through the winter, they may not look at what needs to be done to make it through another year or the shock may be too much for them to bear. If you look at the dust bowl of the 30's, many became unglued and didn't recover for a long time if ever. If things get bad, something like a flu epidemic would be catastrophic. Things could continue to go down hill for a few years until enough people &/or communities have reached a point of stability.

I am hoping that things aren't that bad, but because of the not knowing we have prepared for the worst.

-- Beckie (sunshine_horses@yahoo.com), August 29, 1999.

Good point, Cody! I've been preparing for a disruption lasting about a year, but the more I prepare, the more I think that it might not be enough and then what? So I have bought about 3 yrs. of non-hybrid seeds, a canner, a few fowl, lots of fishing equipment and plan to put in a few fruit trees in the backyard, but it's driving my wife nuts! A year seemed to her to be going overboard. Now that I'm talking about possibly three years, she thinks I'm just plain nuts! But my 8 yr. old daughter loves the idea of having a year's supply of gum! It's been tough judging how much is enough and knowing when to quit. I just don't know. I keep saying to myself, just in case, just in case,,,

-- Ty Hadman (hadman@itouch.com), August 30, 1999.

Hey Cody

I posted a very similar question about a week ago here, though it rolled off the bottom of the list.

I see two reasons why 2001 will be worse. Supply and Demand

In 2000 we will have the inventories produced in 1999 (good supply) and for the less than 1% Get Its who were stocking up there were 99% who were not (low demand). But in 2001 we will likely be coming off a year where there were a lot of bottlenecks, shortages, outages (low supply) and everyone will be a Get It (high demand).

Nobody knows how bad it will be, but I am certain that so many people will change their priorities that it will take a good number of years before we return to some of the excesses of today.

I once heard a word of wisdom from a Polish guy just in the time after the fall of communism. He said people are less frustrated by a wealth gap when they have the feeling things are getting better.

-- Thom Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.com), August 30, 1999.

Tricia said: "..but as I recall, things were much worse in 1932 than in 1930." Yes, in fact the whole of the 1930s was the depression. I think there might have been a temporary upturn in 1935 to 1936, but 1937-1939, and maybe 1940 was just as bad as 1932-1935.

Also, remember, the stock market, after the 1929 crash, it took several years, going down, down, down (with occasional bull rallies). The bottom wasn't hit until early 1930s. Four or five years later.

You can probably find some actual details and figures at
http:/www.goldeagle.com
by various authors, in their on-line archives.

BTW, it took WWII to get things moving again. Took supreme effort in making things just to be blown up to get "pent up purchasing power" in the hands of the public, creating the post-war boom of the late 1940s and 1950s. Do you see something wrong with that picture? Like maybe a fraudulent, fragile money, credit, and banking system? (Just like we have now?

Withdraw early, withdraw often, and convert it to real stuff.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 31, 1999.

Link should be
http://www.gold-eagle.com
Sorry about that.

-- A (A@AisA.com), August 31, 1999.

Cody:

I agree with your view that 2001 will be even more scary than 2000. Think that the key will be FOOD...most of food is from hybrid seed. Hybrid plants do NOT reproduce well ( if at all.). NON-hybrid is the way to go and variety is the key. Take out fertilizers and massive farming efforts and things go from bad to worse.

Early months of 2000 may allow majority of citizens to "breathe a sigh of relief"...but I think 2001 is where the major problems will occur. Resources we took for granted will be in the process of being used up (pardon the expression but we will have "eaten our seed corn" and have very little left to plant...unfortunately both literally and figuratively..)

If 2000 is as bad as we think, then 2001 will be worse. Danger is that populace will be screaming for Government to "do something" instead of letting our ingenuity and the free market fix the problem.

Cody you are to be commended for bringing this up. May G

-- M. Hawkins (hawkeye@iamerica.net), October 17, 1999.