Y2K is a Religion and I'm an Agnostic

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

Y2K is a Religion, and I'm an Agnostic

I see a lot of discussion on this forum and others between the pollies and doomers. Each side is firmly entrenched in their position. To each side, I would reemphasize the point

* No one REALLY knows what's going to happen *

A while back I asked in this forum for examples of computer failures that could cause a general public. From the answers I got the consensus was that it would happen when the banks imposed withdrawal limits. Well, I think that the banks may impose withdrawal limits but such an imposition will be AFTER a panic starts, not before. Let's not confuse cause and effect. The other take-home lesson I got from that thread was that genuine expertise on the computer aspect of Y2K is sparse on this forum, because my question of what _computer_ failures received no definitive response.

Lest you think I'm a polly, I have been telling family & friends that I think they should prepare for AT LEAST 14 days. I am an electrical engineer and I've seen the widened disruptions that can occur from small mistakes when interconnectedness exists. I've seen the disruptions that occurred in the oil "shortages" of the 70's. I've considered the Y2K equivalent of Pascal's Wager and decided to hedge my bet's with some preparation.

Some of the Y2K gurus such as Yourdon and Yardeni have admitted to some degree of uncertainty of the effects. I would classify them as agnostics. On the other hand, I think that North and others of his ilk do a disservice to the issue. They exagerate the issues with statements on the order of "every GPS receiver is going to fail after the rollover" and "most of the world's mainframe computer's are going to either shut down or begin spewing out bad data" They predict the worst possible consequences for any possibility. In so doing they paint anyone concerned about Y2K as a nut. Conspiracy nuts come out of the woodwork to stir the pot: some accept it as an article of faith that martial law will be declared -- no if's or but's about it. If I were a member of government about to impose the new world order, I would leak my plans to one of these conspiracy nuts who would broadcast the data and cause everyone else to discount the possibility. People like North in effect put up strawmen arguments that the pollies can easily knock down, and more rational arguments are lost in the noise. I'm skeptical of claims advanced by anyone who's also selling survival gear. I dropped in on a survival expo and overheard a vendor expounding on the effect of secondary clocks in embedded systems when he obviously did not know what a secondary clock is or exactly why it could cause any problem. I also suspect that some of the survivalists are HOPING that the extreme scenarios they predict come to pass.

The supply chain might or might not break down due to Y2K computer failures. I think it likely that there will be shortages in some areas but nothing that will cause anyone to starve or go naked. I think it very likely that the store shelves will be stripped bare as the general public tries to prepare all at once, probably the last week of the year & maybe sooner (in this situation a some will go hungry for a few days). Items imported from overseas may be in short supply for a time.

Electrical power might or might not go out nationwide. I think it likely that some people somewhere will suffer outages of up to a few days as a result of a Y2K-induced failure. Railroad problems may make it difficult to transport coal for generation of power, and if it persists to next summer there will be rolling blackouts to conserve fuel.

Water and sewer systems might or might not fail everywhere. I think it likely that a few local areas may have problems.

As far as the publicized trigger dates, my predictions are: - the dreaded nines of 9/9/99 will be a non-event - the October 1 fiscal year start for the FedGov and others will be a non-event On the other hand, I predict - sometime around December 1 there will be some widely publicized instances of computer failures. I recall on the 60 Minutes interview that the Washington DC municipal payroll system would have failed in mid-December if they hadn't fixed it. - by the last week of the year the shelves are stripped bare. The TV news shows people fighting over the last bag of dog food. - the rollover will have some direct disruptions. Any effects from embedded systems will manifest themselves during a period from New Year's Eve to the week following. Other effects such as those caused by foreign countries' non-preparation will take up to a month to appear. Other problems will occur over the next weeks and months as processes that don't occur very often take place. Overall perhaps a mild recession and a depression for a few employees of unprepared companies. Personally, I'm going to make some basic preparations to help me through some rough spots: some canned goods and water set aside to last a few weeks; some candles, lanterns, & portable heaters for power outages; buying some clothes for next year in case we can't import them. I'm preparing for an event worse than I think is likely, but hoping that it really will be just a bump in the road (whatever that is, so I'll call a BITR just a few minor shortages and maybe a 1-hour power outage)

I'm not preparing a Y2K retreat in the hills with a pallet of MRE's and freeze-dried food that I would guard with automatic weapons until the useless eaters die off so I can plant my stock non-hybrid seeds with hand implements. If you are preparing for the extreme case I wouldn't talk you out of it, but I would hope that you're not doing something stupid in your preparation such as destroying your career, putting yourself overwhelmingly in debt, or writing bad checks. Any contingency plans should also allow for the possibility that nothing will go wrong.

I think some balance is called for. Make rational preparations within your capabilites for a likely event. Just because something is possible doesn't mean you should prepare for it -- for example it is possible for a 1-ton meteor to fall on your house but you couldn't prepare for such an unlikely event (well maybe Bill Gates could afford to have a private space tracking system with helicopters on standby).

While preparing for a meteor strike is irrational, it is also irrational to not prepare for any disruptions in your ability to obtain heat, water, light, or food simply by going to the store, flipping a switch, or turning a knob.

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), August 28, 1999

Answers

I think this has been posted before. Good for you. My business is predicting events. I do it for a living and I'm really really good at it. You apparantly believe in some form of Kismet. Probability is real, ask anyone who has been to Vegas recently. Unfortunately most, like yourself, fail to ever consider the odds. The real odds, not some bullshit fluff theyread in People Magazine or Business Week or Today 's Investor Rag.

Furthermore, who cares if you believe or not. Why do you feel it necessary to post this here? Ask yourself that question. Good luck to you and yours in the new year.

PS-If this really is a repost of a previous disinformation article, f- you.

-- gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), August 28, 1999.


Great Post!!!

Your logical, sensible post renews my hope for this forumn. I guess since you're technical like I am, you can see beneath the hype, spin and faulty thinking and think for yourself.

Don't worry if Ray asked you how "John" is -- he thinks anyone not planing for TEOTWAWKI -- or at least towing the "party line" is a shill of John Koshkinen (sp?). BWAAAAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!

Have a great day! Congratulations on surviving the "thought police"!

-- Anon (Anon@work.now), August 28, 1999.


MIKEY2K: Terriffic post. Sound reasoning, good advice, respectfully articulated.

With respect,

-- Dave Walden (wprop@concentric.net), August 28, 1999.


Well written and well reasoned, but not based on any facts. I have read a lot of expert projections here from highly responsible sources, so I don't know where you come up with this mild scenario.

Y2K's effects might turn out less bad than we imagine--I hope--but it won't be on the basis of that which you outline--which is spun shearly out of your head and wishful thinking. Good luck.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


It's real simple, Mikey. Measure the upside potential vs. the downside risk. Given the vast UNknowns of Y2K, it is illogical NOT to prepare for the downside risk, especially since most of the preps are consumable anyway.

And Y2K is not a religion, it's a mad-made event on the ever-closing horizon, and you're not an agnostic, you sound like either a fence straddler who doesn't have the courage of his convictions or a trolling polly.

-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), August 28, 1999.



Yup, just another opinion. If you are agnostic why all the future projections with such certainty?

It isn't about what is going to happen, it is about study, perception, probability assignment, and planning in response to that internal assessment. Quite personal and site specific.

One's membership in a particular scenario group does not validate and cause to make that particular scenario more likely to happen.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), August 28, 1999.


Y2k is not a religion. It is a technical problem. There is nothing about Y2k that requires belief in an omnipotent divinity.

If you are having trouble discerning the difference between reading scripture and assessing a government report with your critical thinking skills then I suggest you acquaint yourself with the principles of basic logic.

Religion requires faith and a surrender of one's personal will to Divinity. Y2k requires analytical analysis and a sceptical mind. God help us all if most can't tell the difference.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


Mikey2K:

I would take issue with a few things you have said.

1. "A while back I asked in this forum for examples of computer failures that could cause a general public." I presume you left something out, because this makes no sense to me.

2. "The other take-home lesson I got from that thread was that genuine expertise on the computer aspect of Y2K is sparse on this forum, because my question of what _computer_ failures received no definitive response." My problems are computer problems and I have solved those with an old heave-ho into the garbage can and new equipment and software [and many patches]. It is my opinion [I'm often wrong but never it doubt] that the major problems are system problems [not to be understood by many programmers, engineers (I was one at one time) and only a few systems at a time by system analysts]. It appears to me that this is why "we don't know what is going to happen".

3. While I know what you are trying to say, I can't agree with your concept of religion.

Otherwise, I can't disagree with what you say.

Bes

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


>> My business is predicting events. I do it for a living and I'm really really good at it. You apparantly believe in some form of Kismet. Probability is real, ask anyone who has been to Vegas recently. Unfortunately most, like yourself, fail to ever consider the odds. <<

Mr. Gecko,

I have read many of the articles you've posted, giving your analysis of economic weaknesses in the system. On the whole, they've been dead-on (as far as I can see with my limited knowledge and insight).

I would be very interested to read your view of one or more high-probability scenarios that might come to pass. (I would find this MUCH more interesting than jeers thrown at scenarios you disagree with - any fool can jeer.)

I invite you to post some of your own original ideas on what happens in the next year, on this thread, or even better on a new thread. The more clear-cut and detailed, the more I would appreciate it. I think we'd all be grateful for the benefit of your expertise. Thanks.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), August 28, 1999.


Let me address some of the points raised in response to my earlier post:

To Gordon: This article was composed by me today, and is the cumulative result of reading up on the issue from authors such as Yourdon and other people on various forums ranging from doomer to polly, evaluating their credibility as best I can, and arriving at my own decision. I seem to have touched a nerve with you -- maybe you've mortgaged your house to prepare for Y2K. I'll ignore some of your other statements and return wishes of good luck to you and yours in the future.

To Anon and Dave Walden: Thanks for the good words, but I hope you're hedging your bets on Y2K and doing some preparation.

To Mara Wayne: I'll admit to a paucity of facts, but then I haven't seen many real facts from others either. I'd like to have some more facts to reevaluate my position. Y2K may indeed turn out worse than I'm preparing for. I believe the probability is that it will turn out better. More on this topic later.

To Sandmann: I have weighed the upside vs. downside risks. But past a certain point there is a cost to prepare over and above what you can recover just by consuming your preparations. There are tangible costs other than the time involved. I have a few solar panels and batteries but will never recover there cost in saved electricity. Storing food has required the purchase of shelves and rearranging to create room. Having a gun in the house increases the risk that I or someone else could be accidentally shot. For me, getting a hideaway in the hills is more than I can afford. As to Y2K being a religion, I maintain that it is in a sense. Doomer and polly alike base their positions mainly on faith and anyone who disagrees is a heretic.

To Mitchell Barnes: I did use the word "likely" in my projections. As far as probability, if you take a standard distribution curve with the polly position on the left and TEOTW on the right, I'm placing my estimated scenario as 1+ sigma to the right. This does leave some room for the situation to be worse than I estimate.

To R: Religion as I use it here has nothing to do with the existance of any diety(ies). Rather, it has to do with the attitude of many of those who have an opinion. The Bible defines faith as the evidence of things not seen, and since many people are taking there positions largely on faith I say it has the characteristics of a religion. There are high priests such as Gary North and people congregate in forums such as this.

To Bes: You are right, I did leave something out. Sometimes I have what I call word processor syndrome where I know the point I'm trying to make but in the course of word smithing the text I edit it to where it doesn't make sense. I was referring to a "general public _panic_" which again I feel is very likely independent of the actual outcome due to any technical failures. As to your second point, an individual at home does have the option of out-with-the-old non-Y2K- compliant software and in-with-the-new Y2K-compliant software. A large corporation with custom software has to take on the burden of making existing software compliant. And I do believe that (1)many problems have been solved but (2)some problems remain. Million- dollar question is to how many and their impact (used to be only $64000 but inflation has obsoleted that term).

To everyone: Hopefully you can get past my religion metaphor if that causes you a problem and focus on my main point. Compared to the polly who says "Nothing will go wrong" and the doomer who says "Everything will go wrong" I'm going with the point that no one knows what will go wrong.

In deciding the extent of your preparations, you have to balance resources and risk. When the Power Ball lottery went over $100 million the odds began to swing in the favor of the player (ignoring the tax aspect) and I decided to play. But even though I had the concept (whether right or wrong) of the odds being in my favor, I did not withdraw my 401K, remortgage my house, and max out my credit cards to play. I just bought $5 worth of tickets which I could afford to lose (and did). But if I had won the lottery, I would now have extensive resources and my preparations would be the envy of anyone on this forum (unless Bill Gates is lurking here too). I am preparing for more than the 3-day winter storm and even more than the historic 2-weeks recommended by the Red Cross. But before I'm willing to go too far out on the limb, I'd like to see some facts to justify doing so. My preparations are consistent with my resources and taking into cosideration my expectations. I think that there's a high probability that life will continue much as it has or at least short of the TEOTWAWKI or Mad Max situation that requires a hideaway in the hills. I haven't seen any believable facts that would convince me to close out my 401K and otherwise lock me into a situation where I had to run for the hills no matter what develops, in order to escape angry creditors if not for TEOTWAWKI.

Here's some examples of the counter-productive rhetoric that turns people off when it is suggested that they prepare. From the book "Facing Millennial Midnight" by Hal Lindsey and Cliff Ford: "There are some 10 million of these {GPS} receivers installed throughout the world. Those that are not upgraded WILL produce inaccurate data that could prove to be dangerous and even life threatening." (emphasis mine) Well, I have a receiver produced in 1997 well before the copyright date (1998) of this book. This by the way, was a quote in this book from Michael Hyatt from an article in October of last year. Elsewhere in the book, talking about the fiscal year rollover on July 1: "We can expect to see the beginnings of a mass migration as people start abandoning the big cities .... Interstates will be jammed with traffic ..."

As I said, I'm agnostic on Y2K which means that I don't know how it's going to turn out. If you have some facts, please share them with me and everyone else. But in advance, the old " the government always lies so therefore Koskinen is lying" argument doesn't work. The story from someone who's a friend of a friend of your brother-in-law doesn't do it either.

"Just the facts, ma'am" (Please)

-- Mikey2k (mikey2k@he.wont.eat.it), August 28, 1999.



Mikey2K:

In my original response I noted that you did not know what religion means [it is not uncommon, the word has been trashed by fundamentalists, world-wide]. I now see that you don't know what agnostic means. Otherwise, I have no trouble with your statements; except I still have no idea what you left out of L1 P2.

Best,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


Mikey2k:

Now I see. I am Bes. That was supposed to be best wishes and was truncated by the system. Let's see if it does it again. By the way, I am Z.

Best Wishes,

Z

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


Mikey2k:

I wasn't talking about home [By choice, I use a Mac at home; I have verified my software]. I'm talking about where I make my living. Mac, Wintel and Unix. While we are in good shape, I am still figuring-out the MS-tech site for Y2K. The use of language reminds me of a cross between "through the looking glass" and "1984". As near as I can tell we are okay. We will SEE! Sorry for so many responses, I just didn't know that I was Bes.

Best Wishes,

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), August 28, 1999.


Mikey, you wrote:

I have weighed the upside vs. downside risks. But past a certain point there is a cost to prepare over and above what you can recover just by consuming your preparations. There are tangible costs other than the time involved.

This is true. I myself have drawn the line at buying solar panels, digging a well, buying a country house; I can't afford any of these right now. I have concentrated on water, food, shelter, and feel we are ready for a six-month period of breakdowns.

Storing food has required the purchase of shelves and rearranging to create room.

This is surely not a burden for you, Mikey. Those shelves will be good for storing something else if this in just a BITR.

Having a gun in the house increases the risk that I or someone else could be accidentally shot.Lock it up, silly.



-- Sandmann (Sandmann@alasbab.com), August 28, 1999.


MikeyY2K

"Here's some examples of the counter-productive rhetoric that turns people off when it is suggested that they prepare. From the book "Facing Millennial Midnight" by Hal Lindsey and Cliff Ford: "There are some 10 million of these {GPS} receivers installed throughout the world"

Maybe there is more of a religious undertone to your Y2K research than you would like. Quoting Hal Lindsey even in jest is quite remarkable. I didn't even realize he had a book :o)

As far as the "facts" go do you check out the GAO reports and Gov. testimony? It suprised me that the Naval report had some information that could be found within the above sources yet it was this big "alarmist thing". How complete is your research if you quote Hal Lindsey?

Another thing is the location of the individual. If you are in a cold weather part of the world I would advise having a through understanding of the services that provide power, water, gas, sewage, fuel and on and on. While it is easy to chat about such things during the summer, the winter in many parts of North America can be brutal and peoples fate will come MUCH quicker.

And as far as the "religious Y2K retoric" that just seems like alot of personal problems, posturing, power tripping and good old capitalistic oppertunity. Also alot of folk (me included) were weaned on grid wide failure, mass business f. ups, governments asleep at the wheel ect. While over the last 2 years of my awareness the situation has improved but the embedded chip problem was virtually unknown back then so it is like the wildcard.

Anyway like you I would not advise haphazard, ill conceived plans on how to deal with the problem. Mind you a secure home stance is mandatory. Storing water and food in the end is not a high cost prep, and clothes are all manufactured overseas so this would be an area to watch. Getting a Genset and 45 gallon drums of gas in an urban area is just asking for problems IMHO

-- Brian (imager@home.com), August 28, 1999.



Moderation questions? read the FAQ