Although this forum is intended for thoughts about rebuilding after various Y2K scenarios, I see the problems facing mankind, in our lifetimes, as much more.

Y2K is a mere distraction. If you open your eyes and look around, you will see many things not going so well and progressing in a direction, and at a pace, that something is going to break. A common theme in Y2K is a lack of the big picture, well the big picture is much bigger than Y2K.

There's the Arabs and Jews, North and South Korea, India and Pakistan, China and Taiwan. The good 'ole USA has positioned itself right in the middle of all of these. Saddam is grumbling again with hints of allying with Iran and Syria against Israel (supposedly Osama bin Laden will run interference against the US with Russian supplied Weapons of Mass Destruction). Russia and China are allying against the buildup of Western influence. North Korea has publicly announced that another war between the North and South (with the US) is now unavoidable. China recently publicly indicated that US Navy intervention into any action against Taiwan was no problem for their Nukes. Even Moammar Gadhafi (remember Libya) wants to form a new United States of Africa (another USA). Any of these situations have the potential to strain our governments ability to function normally and stress (or curtail) international supply chains. Any major international event would likely divert resources from the population to support foreign activities. Oil would likely be at the top of the list, resulting in reduced availability, higher prices, impacts on transportation, power generation, etc., etc. Y2K is frequently compared to the events around 1929, but, in my opinion, a look at the events of the early 1940's paints a more likely comparison.

There are many belief systems around the world that think of our planet and Mother Nature as a living entity. All of these beliefs hold prophecies of a time when Mother Nature will say, Enough. The Christian Bible also talks about 'natural' events in it's prophecies. As another part of the big picture, there is definitely an increase in Earthquakes, Floods, Droughts, unsafe Ozone levels, unsafe levels of UV radiation, etc., etc. There are reports from remote areas of Russia of the reappearance of TB and the Plague (things that people supposedly removed from the planet years ago). Several areas of the world are currently being devastated by plagues of Locust (kinda Biblical, huh). Many people are extremely concerned over the possibility of 'man made' biological warfare. They have probably never thought of Mother Nature's ability to launch a 'biological' response.

This weekend, the utility companies in my area are mobilizing to assist coastal residents in the event Dennis decides to hit our coast. Such responses may not be possible in a degraded society, from whatever cause. Today our coastal emergency management views Dennis as a 3-day event (food, water, batteries, etc. sound familiar), but without the ability to move massive amounts of help and resources, the 3-day scenario could easily look more like the earthquake in Turkey.

In summary, Y2K is just a part of the world in which we live. All the GI's are talking about how the DGI's can't see the big picture. From what I have seen, most of the Y2K GI's also have blinders on. Most of the predicted outcomes of Y2K are possible, and quite likely to happen, as a result of any of a number of other scenarios. More likely, Y2K will provide opportunities for other scenarios that are part of the real 'big picture'.

Just as many Y2K'ers talk about Domino Effect and Cascade Failures within our technology, Y2K will not be an isolated event impacting just our technological world regardless of it's severity level. It is simply a distraction that has many people blinded from the true big picture. To obsess on anything is just another form of greed. Nobody will argue that 'greed for money' has been fundamental in our misuse of technology. In terms of speculating a rebuilding after a collapse, obsessions will simply lay the foundation for a repeat performance. As a 21 year Computer Professional, the old KISS principle (Keep It Simple, Stupid) applies to everything. Keep things simple, avoid obsessive behavior, and always move forward. Learn from the past, look far enough ahead to keep moving, don't dwell on either. Live for today and put your Faith in something you can count on for tomorrow.

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), August 29, 1999

Answers

Well BH, thankyou for reminding me of the current world/weird state of affairs, and I bet overall that is only a small percentage of then, world wide. Quick answer may be the Y2K straw that broke the camels back. But perhaps, what is more intreguing in some of the current problematic senerios that you have mentioned is what these entities my be forced into doing prior to the rollover event. We hear that Russia will loose most of its military prowess after rollover if they are not successful in remeidation, highly unlikely. So do Russien Generals now have to consider use-it or loose-it? Do older world war II militaries, like China or maybe north korea feel tempted knowing come January those countries who depend on High-tech, might be down for a while, a long while. What does a High-tech militarys Generals think about loosing most of there techie capability, possible pre-emtive strikes. Some folks are trying to figure out why the military rollover window starts September 1.... In closing if Y2K is going to be as big and bad as some predict, it would only make sence that such an event wouldnt be restricted to such a small time frame as a 3-day storm...---...

-- Les (yoyo@tolate.com), August 29, 1999.

Oooooo - slow down, you'll do an injury to yourself.

Do you remember the old song from the 60s? -

"There's rioting in Africa - Da Ta Dee ta Dee Da Da There's strife in Iran Da Da Dee Da Dee Da Ta . There's huricanes in Florida, Da Da Tee Da Tee Da Da and Texas needs rain Da Ta Dee Da Tee Da The whole world is festering in unhappy thoughts. The French hate the Germans, The German's hate the Bosch. The Italians hate the Yugoslavs, the South Africans hate the Dutch and I don't like anybody very much......"

Not too much different than today.....hmmmm

Sorry kiddo - I cannot do anything about much of why you are ranting. Learned long ago that I cannot change people, places or things. All I can do is focus on what I can change, my attitude, my behaviors and what little impact I can make on my physical surroundings. The rest I "turn over" to the Big Guy and trust.

-- anon (anon@anon.com), August 29, 1999.

BH,

Very well put. It is rare that someone (especially someone so young) would look at the big picture instead of the 19-th decimal of a small detail. You are absolutely right: The Big Picture is much bigger than Y2K. If Y2k doesn't do it, something else for sure will. Our world is very unstable, and becoming increasingly so. Just read the "Warning to Humanity" document published and signed by 1500 leading scientists (most of the Nobel Laurets) about running out of time to reverse distructive trends in pollution and overpopulation. The Warning was issued in 1992 with a max window of opportunity of 10 years. Since then things got worse, no better. Guess what that means? If you are interested in the big picture, I refer you to the essay posted on Social/Political thread by the title "Is it possible/worth saving or rebuilding it?" Good luck and good thinking.

-- Francis Mont (francis@montland.com), August 29, 1999.

PS. The "Warning to Humanity" document can be found at http://www.shadow.net/~holodi/warning.htm

-- Francis Mont (francis@montland.com), August 29, 1999.

Back to anon, yada yada yada

You got my point exactly, I sleep like a baby at night because of that Big guy you mentioned. My only other comment, is that the Da Ta Dee ta Dee Da Da seems a little out of date.

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), August 29, 1999.

BH- you left out meteor strikes.....

-- farmer (hillsidefarm@drbs.net), August 30, 1999.

At least with y2k we are no longer thinking about "Chariots of the Gods". The aliens have landed and they are us!!!

-- Thom Gilligan (thomgill@eznet.net), August 30, 1999.