JAPAN IS THE BIGGEST Y2K RISK IN THE WORLD TODAY August 31, 1999

Karl W. Feilder, founder and president of Greenwich Mean Time, is acknowledged worldwide as the authority on the year 2000 "PC" problem and, vitally, it's cause: lack of control at the desktop.

EXCERPT

Feilder acknowledges that many other nations need help too, but says the case for transferring accumulated knowledge to Japan is most urgent.

``We've recently experienced the domino effect of Japanese recession and stock market fluctuation, compounded by the interdependence of the traditional keiretsu. These groups of large companies - all with strong connections to the same bank and significant cross-holdings in each other's shares - dominate Japanese business culture. I don't think anyone would argue that it is in the interests of the West to prevent their economic failure.'' [...]

He says there are lots of other ways the West can help Japan.

"Western companies can pass knowledge on to their Japanese trading partners. In addition, industries should be transferring knowledge among themselves. Most banks, certainly in the UK, have produced very professional Y2K guides for their customers in the form of booklets or videos. Their millennium compliance statements are comprehensive too. Japanese banks, which I'm particularly worried about, could learn a lot from them. Only one has checked their PCs - and even they haven't checked all of them." [...]

Every single PC needs to be checked at all five layers: (1) hardware (BIOS), (2) operating system, (3) software programs, (4) user data and (5) data sharing.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/990831/va_greenwi_1.html http://www.gmt-2000.com/news/press/pr23081999.htm

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Feilder Reports: Until Last Week, Japanese Government Did Not Know That PC's Are Noncompliant This is from the head of Greenwich Mean Time, producer of Check 2000. It appeared on de Jager's forum, August 29. I will not bother to comment, except to say that Feilder always tells it straight. Gary North

. . . "I have been in meetings in Tokyo for the last week, and have met some very high up people in industry and government, which has given me a lot of critical information about the risk posed to the world economy by the world's second largest economy.

Try these for a few facts on Japan :

1. The government has had a Y2K campaign running since summer 1998, and have done a lot of the right things, but until last week, no-one had told them that Y2K affected PCs at all.

2. Only one bank has even started checking their PCs

3. In meetings with some of the key PC manufacturers, it became clear that they have NOT tested the BIOS for Y2K issues (just like the US situation in 1997)

4. The Japanese head of disaster and emergency management told me that he thought Y2K was overhyped, and consequently they have not made a contingency plan (although they could modify an existing plan - e.g. earthquakes or war.)

5. The government's own figures, which will be presented in Berlin, whilst very very impressive, are so inaccurate that they verge on being pure imagination." . . . http://www.garynorth.com/y2k/detail_.cfm/5941 ============================================================

From: Ron Reece Tuesday, Aug 31 1999 9:26AM SILICON INVESTOR Reply #479 of 484

I was unable to find where Fielder actually stated that the Japanese had been unaware of Y2K related PC problems.

It seems to have been a comment inserted by Gary North and not a direct, documentable, quote by Fielder.

I sent Mr. Fielder an email trying to confirm that North quoted him correctly. If so, it is VERY important information (and not encouraging).

I'll let the thread know when I get a response.

Or if you found where Fielder actually stated that they had been unaware of Y2K related PC problems before, could you please provide the link? I couldn't find the Year2000 "forum" that GN was referring to.

If this is correct, I need to have the information so I can forward the data to someone I know who is dealing with the Japanese on Y2K. It may be valuable in "smoking out" any denial on their part.

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From: Ron Reece Wednesday, Sep 1 1999 12:05AM ET SILICON INVESTOR Respond to Post # 482 of 483

Response from Karl Fielder:

Ron,

The quotes attributed to me are accurate.

I have just finished a hard tour of Japan and have even more information.

I would agree that many companies are not telling the truth - but this is mostly from ignorance rather than a deliberate policy. However, having told an untruth, they must confess if they subsequently wish to change their tune - and THAT results in a loss of face.

Karl Fielder

Promised I would share this when I got a response. Looks like Gary North was properly quoting Mr. Fielder's comments.

Not comforting if you live in Japan.

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg_multireplies.gsp?msgid=11114854 ============================================================

To: Ron Reece who wrote (482) From: Christine Traut Wednesday, Sep 1 1999 8:12AM ET SILICON INVESTOR Reply #484 of 485

I had the pleasure of meeting with Karl Feilder last spring. I give great weight to his opinions on Japan. He is a man who calls them as he sees them. And he is a very bright and perceptive guy.

Karl was one of the original sources of my Microsoft cynicism. I still find it amazing that they are managing to keep America from realizing that virtually every MSFT operating system is going to need to be patched to be Y2K compliant. I keep wondering what effect this fact is going to have on public confidence when it finally gets through everyone's complacency about PCs. ============================================================ 121 Days until 2000

-- Cheryl (Transplant@Oregon.com), September 01, 1999

Answers

I feel sorry for Japan, they import ALL their oil. I also think there are countries wose off than Japan, like all of South America and the Korea's and most of Asia minor IMO.

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), September 01, 1999.