Re: The Bug Stops Here : LUSENET : Sonoma County : One Thread

Re:The Bug Stops Here.

To quote: "No one really knows for sure what will happen" (on January 1). "At this point all many of us can do is wait and cross our fingers."

This has to be one of the dumbest things I have ever read.

If we don't do a lot more than this we are in for huge problems.

You can: 1) Prepare yourself and your family for weeks and months of disaster. 2) Get your neighbors to do the same (if they will listen). 3) Get your city to do the same (ditto).

Y2K will not be better than even most Y2K inormed people think. It will be far worse. If you haven't figured this out by now you haven't been listening.

As only one small example, there is a good chance we will have severe gasoline shortages becuase of all the embedded chips in the drillling areas, the shipping facilites and pipelines, and the refineries. Little gasoline means a huge drop in the amount of food produced and delivered to stores. You think this isn't a problem?

Uncross your fingers, stop waiting, and Do Something.


-- Alan Jones (, September 01, 1999


Alan is very concerned about energy. I'm not so concerned about electricity (well of course, I'm on solar) but the flow of liquid fuels looks very, very iffy. Even if not one embedded controller chip in the oil production system died the oil supplying countries are looking forward to taking advantage of this. America has the lowest energy prices in the world...we whine about the price of gas going up to $1.70 a gallon, if we paid the same as most of the nations in this world it would be over $3 a gallon...imagine the impact of that. Think food or lumber will rise in cost? How do you think the "government" will prioritize the distribution of fuel? Who gets priority....agriculture, trucking, "public safety" or Sammy and Suzie with their 10mpg SUV?

I do expect there to be a fuel shortage next year, whether due to Y2K glitches, real shortages or countries trying to take advantage of this. I believe this will play out as shortages in the supply chain for food and materials. The CUMULATIVE effect of low level (say 10- 15%) shortages (food/material/fuel) could add up to quite a lot. Say if the grocery got 10% less food delivered over a span of several months it would be like them closing their doors for a week out of every ten (well, not exactly). Were people to act rationally and not panic this would be something we could deal with but you can't count on that...history does tend to repeat itself. Compounding this with lower inventories created by the last minute preparers stocking up at years end we could have real problems. Historically when faced with a "natural" disaster folks wait until the last 24-48 hours before it strikes before they start which time they generally don't act rationaly, intelligently or with concern for the impacts of their actions on their neighbors.

Personally I'm not overly concerned with Y2K effects in early January. Yes, I expect there will be glitches and even some serious ones. I expect some folks to act very badly and even try to take advantage of the situation (like the young gang bangers I overheard in a pizza shop in Berkely planning their pillaging trip come January). I'm really much more concerned with the potential effects come April and June after several months of problems and shortages.

Humm...and FEMA/Red Cross think that a "few" days worth of food and supplies will do it eh? God, I hope so but have zero faith that they will.....And did I mention that Safeway has canned tuna on sale 4 cans for a dollar? (Bumble Bee in Spring Water).

Got Food? Got Fuel? Got Water?........DCK

-- Don Kulha (, September 02, 1999.

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