John Rawlston-Saul (the contemporary Canadian social thinker - author of "The Unconscious Civilisation") thinks that politicians, the civil service, academics, and other thinkers and policy makers have given up the intellectual and moral leadership of nation states by allowing big corporations to convince us that globalisation and economic rationalism are the only way forward and to demand that the big corporations can do what they want, when they want, how they want, and not be taxed hardly at all. He contends that nation state governments (the USA, UK, Australia etc) *could* effectively govern and limit corporate excess but the politians, civil service, etc, lack courage amd moral fibre. He compares the ruling corporate leadership to the decadent French aristocracy of the 1780s (like the corporate leaders and their hangers-on of today, the French aristocracy and courtisans were generally only interested in power and money and luxury). Y2k triggered economic and social dislocation might create change like the French revolution ... or it might just consolidate the power of the new feudal-type corporate power brokers. I expect the second scenario to play itself out in most countries (notably UK, Europe, Australia, Canada). The USA, because of its gun laws and generally violent undercurrents, may play out a different and more anarchistic scenario in some parts of the country. In the USA it might be more like what happened in 1790s France with much suffering and the eventual rise of some military dictator.

-- Mark Williams (m.williams@cowan.edu.au), September 06, 1999

Answers

Re UK, Europe, Australia, Canada -- how likely is it that corporations will consolidate power if they too are severely crippled by Y2K problems? How much corporate accumulation of power took place, for example, during the days of the Great Depression? Seems to me that that was a period when corporations were busily laying off people and going bankrupt -- thus leaving a vacuum for government to fill.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (HumptyDumptyY2K@yourdon.com), September 13, 1999.

We do see an alarming trend in the food industry that bears this out. We currently have a crisis of meat "Packer" concentration (monopoly of only a handfull of packing houses.) We also have Cargill (sp?) and other giant international food processors merging with more and more competitors. Although the USDA has requested that the Dept. of Justice investigate these monopolies, the problems are not being given the serious attention they demand.

How does this relate to y2k? The big boys and the strings of small contract producers (serfs) have worked on compliancy. The small independent producer is oblivious to the issue. There has been almost nothing in our organization's newsletters on y2k and we are the largest ag org. in the US. y2k is used as a strategy, (just like strict environmental regs.,) to overburden small producers until they are eliminated or become part of the string of serfs.

BTW, according to "News Briefs" in the Sept. 3 Capital Press, the University of Minnesota has confirmed the following y2k embedded systems problems on the farm: electronic scales, grain drying equipment, crop storage ventilation systems, moisture testers, feed mixing equipment, security and fire alarm systems, electrical load controllers from electrical utilities, irrigation systems.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), September 13, 1999.

Dear Ed and Marsh

I think y2k will hasten the existing movement towards a new type of feudalism. The change is already going on apace (see "Global Trends 2005 at CSIS.ORG). Marshe's example bears this out - the new feudal land owners with serf type workers and few small crofters (it will be too dangerous).

I think that comparing the coming depression to the beginning stages of the 1929 crash is helpful in the economic and psychological areas but not in social/cultural areas. There are many differences (eg in the 1930s, widespread education was still useful, to the rich and powerful, in order to get factory workers to be able to used technology: large populations and widespread scientific education are no longer needed by the rich and powerful).

I am influenced by not only John Rawlston-Saul but by the American economist Roy E. Allen (author of "Financial crises and recession in the global economy" and, most intriguingly, "Cybor and Gaia: The new world order". Perhaps we should think about the motivating clusters of beliefs/personality tendencies/attitudes/world views/faiths/religious tendencies etc in thinking about rebuilding.

As stated previously, I suspect that, in most societies, local communities will become largely controlled by local Mafia godfather types, or local war lords, or other rich, influential folk (nobles). Exacerbated by y2k, the move for smaller and leass influential state and federal government presence will accelerate. Local economies will be in a barter/exchange and a largely black market economy (similar to what is emerging in Russia). Taxes could be collected via force and with the Mafia and nobles taking their share. Continuing already existing trends, the rich folk will congregate in affluent and safe areas, increasingly guarded by neighbourhood watch groups, and then armed guards, evolving to fortified and guarded gated estates and communities, each with armed forces. These areas may be on the boundaries of cities or in affluent inner suburban areas close to a food distribution centre.

Local produce may largely be exchanged by barter or with cash and precious metals (for major acquisition such as land, houses, medical operations, cars, etc). The rich might buy via traders at the gates or via minions at the local markets. Free service may be offered to pay off debts, thereby bringing in a new form of slavery. The rich will be home educated with computers and home tutors. They may communicate by internet and buy through electronic commerce for imported commodities, with deliveries from the wharves and airports by armed onvoys.Shipping and aircraft travel could be at a small fraction of the 1990s level. There will probably be local armed disputes, larger wars over resources, and mass migrations. New and old resistant viruses and bacteria will kill enormous numbers. Africa might continue to break down to anarchy and warring tribalism, and Islamic fundamentalism predominate in many counties being strictly enforced with brutal control.

Given the present feeble state of Calvanist type Christian faith (work ethic pro democracy and education), the rich folk may increasingly and unconsciously worship the spirit of the new technology Cybor with the technology wizards knowing the commands and words of magic of the internet. The rich women and artists, intuitives, thinkers and mystics might be drawn towards the worship of nature and fertility Gaia. In the rich gated communites, there may be rich intellectual opportunities using the internet. In this essentially feudal society, Roman Catholicism will stage a big comeback and may evolve to include some worship of Gaia, but perhaps even some worship of Cybor as the dominant medium of education and communication for the rich families. Various new age religious prophets and sects could arise, stressing earth-human mediation, both in the poor peasant communities and the more materialistic catering to the rich gated communities and communicating over the internet. New forms of religious movement could also spring from within Roman Catholicism (see Tielhard de Chardins books and the Father Thomas Berry's books as per "The Universe Story" (1992 with Brian Swimme) and "The Dream of the Earth" (1988) which call for a new "religion" which is an earth-human mediation).

-- Mark Williams (m.williams@cowan.edu.au), September 14, 1999.

Ed, I forgot to mention that I don't know what the "new feudal-type corporate power brokers" will look like. Depending on the severity of the y2k enhanced depression/recession, they may be exisiting multinational corporations somewhat changed, mightily changed remnants of the existing multinationals, or renegate elements of existing governments, or entirely new clusters of the rich and powerful.

-- Mark Williams (m.williams@cowan.edu.au), September 14, 1999.

I know that most of our population has no idea that small independent agriculturalists have already been reduced to quasi serfdom.

I work with cow/calf producers. (This means they keep a herd of cows and grow a crop of calves for sale to feedlots.) On page 6 of the September 3, 1999 edition of the Capital Press, (the major west coast ag periodical,) Tam Moore reports that on a national average, cow-calf ranchers HAVE LOST AN AVERAGE OF $3.90 FOR EVERY HEAD OF CATTLE PRODUCED DURING THE PAST 25 YEARS. So ranchers have, not only worked for nothing, they have subsidized your food bill.

When Stan and others talk about our booming economy and the bounty we all have in beanie babies, cell phones and fancy vans, remember that not "all" of us enjoy this economic boom. Some of us scrape along in poverty, living in rural counties that are already at double digit unemployment. Some of us eat out once a year, drive a 20 year old truck and never see a movie.

I do not know whether y2k will make this situation worse or whether it will be the great equalizer where "back to basics" brings respect for the farmer and rancher and fair and decent prices for his produce.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), September 14, 1999.