Big Dog Admits to Failed Prediction about Preparation

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(Cross-posted from TB2K Classic forum)

It's true. I wrote on this forum several months ago, NOT that I expected panic (in fact, I said I didn't and have said that since early in 1999), but that I did expect an unpredictable tightening of supplies. I urged folks to complete all their preps by the end of August, at the latest. OK, wrong, at least on the whole. Very regrettably wrong, because of its implications for the now-assured unreadiness of the nation.

But when will you finish your preps? December 31st? If you're not going to prep further, fine, but make that an active decision, not the result of passive paralysis.

At the meta level, here is what you should do:

1. Decide how much cash and/or barter, investment or other strategies and tactics you need post 1/1/2000 and execute them now.

2. Decide how much "security" you need for how long (everything from ammo to water, food, medicines, communications and related supplies)and for how many people and complete obtaining it now.

3. If bugging out or evacuation may be a necessity, devise reasonable plans now and drill them. If you need help from others, ask, don't wait. OTOH, don't fantasize or fear events you can't control (global or local).

At the micro-level, keep taking all the small steps you can about the "macro" stuff and don't sweat the stuff you can't (for instance, because you can't afford something).

If you are a Christian, your first preparation should always have been spiritual (others can extrapolate to their own convictions). If that wasn't or isn't true, your physical preparations will only be a minor support.

I will make another prediction in this thread, that December will be a very difficult month to conclude your preparations. It might even be a difficult month to do your grocery shopping, not because of Y2K failures but because of a final, national lurch towards having something on the shelves.

Most probably, the next six months, minimally, are going to be quite confusing and far too interesting. Whether Y2K is a BITR or TEOTWAWKI, the die is already cast -- we're just too far short of eternity's time-line to see the results .... quite .... yet.

If you let yourself be a deer caught in the headlights of the posturing on this forum, you may regret it later. Use the forum for support and encouragement but not as a substitute for action.

Ask yourself this question: if I only had two more calendar weeks to finish the three areas listed above, could I? Don't congratulate yourself for what you've done at this point -- instead, don't procrastinate when YOU claim to tell others that Y2K deserves intense preparation. The items you didn't take time to secure or plan now (want one of many? how about meaningful first-aid preps?) may be the ones you bitterly regret next year.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), September 23, 1999

Answers

What great good sence--yes, I've been frozen with indecision whether to move, stay or plan an evacuation route/site--job decisions etc. Have had a terrible time trying to read the tea leaves---all the tail ends left undone for lack of decision. So as you suggest, I'll finish up what I can and pray for guidance on the rest. Gettin on gettin on.

-- catherine plamondon (Thanksfortheboot@prep.net), September 23, 1999.

Big Dog, I have been of the opinion that the "powers that be" have been trying to make us aware of the y2k problems SLOOOOWLY, so as to prevent everyone trying to stock up at the same time. I still think that might be the case, but I'm beginning to lose faith in that prognosis. Due to the apparent changes being given out by Senator Bennet, et al, I am thinking maybe I was all wet, and that there will be NO encouragement to stock up in any meaningful way.

In fact, I'm getting so much denial from almost everyone I know, even former GI's that I'm not sure that there will be a rush to stock up at the end of the year.

I could be wrong. Don't know. But with SO MUCH denial, why should I believe that a meaningful number of folks will rush to the stores in December? Maybe later in the year, if there really does turn out to be a major disruption. When it's too late....

Al

-- Al K. Lloyd (all@ready.now), September 23, 1999.


Al, I agree with your evaluation. They wanted some people to GI. But they could not be too overt or it would be panic and disaster. Maybe they are right, too. Maybe they are preparing for the worst and hoping for the best. There are surely hints out there, even mainstream, that all will not be well. Of course the hints are kind of subtle and you have to have gotten it already. Keep on keeping on.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 24, 1999.

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