According to U.S. Commerce...

Selected Imports and Exports (in millions)

Alcoholic bev.,distilled: July 1999 : Exports = 30 : Imports = 228

Animal feeds: July 1999 : Exports = 242 : Imports = 48

Basketware, etc.: July 1999 : Exports = 253 : Imports = 372

Chemicals - medicinal: July 1999 : Exports = 870 : Imports = 1,258

Cereal flour: July 1999 : Exports = 110 : Imports = 122

Cigarettes: July 1999 : Exports = 239 : Imports = 10

Clothing: July 1999 : Exports = 636 : Imports = 5,557

Coal: July 1999 : Exports = 183 : Imports = 44

Coffee: July 1999 : Exports = 1 : Imports = 194

Copper: July 1999 : Exports = 82 : Imports = 256

Cork, wood, lumber: July 1999 : Exports = 322 : Imports = 881

Corn: July 1999 : Exports = 453 : Imports = 2

Cotton, raw and linters: July 1999 : Exports = 100 : Imports = 24

Crude oil: July 1999 : Exports = 72 : Imports = 4,435

Fish and preparations: July 1999 : Exports = 309 : Imports = 760

Footwear: July 1999 : Exports = 57 : Imports = 1,339

Furniture and bedding: July 1999 : Exports = 312 : Imports = 1,292

Glassware: July 1999 : Exports = 54 : Imports = 172

Iron and steel mill prod: July 1999 : Exports = 397 : Imports = 1,141

Lighting, plumbing: July 1999 : Exports = 107 : Imports = 412

Liquified propane/butane: July 1999 : Exports = 16 : Imports = 73

Meat and preparations: July 1999 : Exports = 539 : Imports = 279

Metal manufactures, n.e.s.: July 1999 : Exports = 856 : Imports = 1,229

Metalworking machinery: July 1999 : Exports = 460 : Imports = 561

Natural gas: July 1999 : Exports = 19 : Imports = 497

Nickel: July 1999 : Exports = 25 : Imports = 53

Oils/fats, vegetable: July 1999 : Exports = 77 : Imports = 117

Optical goods: July 1999 : Exports = 191 : Imports = 243

Paper and paperboard: July 1999 : Exports = 793 : Imports = 1,073

Petroleum preparations: July 1999 : Exports = 263 : Imports = 1,318

Platinum: July 1999 : Exports = 50 : Imports = 149

Pottery: July 1999 : Exports = 8 : Imports = 151

Rice: July 1999 : Exports = 66 : Imports = 10

Rubber articles, n.e.s.: July 1999 : Exports = 120 : Imports = 144

Rubber tires and tubes: July 1999 : Exports = 188 : Imports = 391

Silver and bullion: July 1999 : Exports = 19 : Imports = 62

Soybeans: July 1999 : Exports = 200 : Imports = 1

Sugar: July 1999 : Exports = 0 : Imports = 37

Textile yearn, fabric: July 1999 : Exports = 708 : Imports = 1,181

Toys/games/sporting goods: July 1999 : Exports = 266 : Imports = 1,793

Travel goods: July 1999 : Exports = 25 : Imports = 375

Vegetables and fruits: July 1999 : Exports = 561 : Imports = 652

Watches/clocks/parts: July 1999 : Exports = 30 : Imports = 271

Vehicles: July 1999 : Exports = 2,936 : Imports = 10,761

Wheat: July 1999 : Exports = 351 : Imports = 31

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999

Answers

Stan, thanks for this post and all the others I have read lately. This is sobering when you see it listed here in black and white. How this country has changed and how small the world has become. Y2K really will become, "It's the economy, stupid."

Meanwhile the DOW has slipped below 10,500...

-- Nancy (wellsnl@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999.

Toast, all right.

I was working fulfillment IT when UPS went on strike. Even though we also used Fedex, they warned us that they wouldn't accept more than our usual business during the strike: they had their "more" loyal customers to service.

The redundancy simply wasn't there - the extra capacity couldn't be just whistled down from the trees, for any amount of money.

Same will be true - for every strand that snaps in the web, another redundant strand will surely exist, but will not be able to provide the entire additional capacity of the one that snapped.

And if the driver - consumers, 66% of GDP - is on the economic sidelines, waiting for the redundancy to kick in and full production to resume - all those dollars suddenly not spent will exacerbate the contraction.....

Too bad we don't see in 10-Qs what plans exist for absorbing competitors' business. 'Twould be easier to calculate the true redundancy of the system.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 23, 1999.

Thanks Stan,

Seeing some hard information to back up the generalities I've heard about is nice.

Those preparing for Y2K may want to buy more of the stuff that we import in case those things are not available next year.

-- Rick (rick7@postmark.net), September 23, 1999.

Stan, Nancy, Lisa,

You know, maybe, just MAYBE this Y2K will provide an opportuniity to rethink the whole "globalism" thing. Assuming that there are elections in 2000 (doubtful), perhaps Main Street's concern's for jobs will be addressed. Look, you cannot keep running trade deficits forever.

Perhaps something good will happen after "something wicked this way comes."

-- K. Stevens (kstevens@ It's ALL going away in January.com), September 23, 1999.

Hey! we got cigarettes and corn!!!!

I feel so much better now...

thanks Stan...

loungin' on the porch...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 23, 1999.

down down 153 3:30 est

-- (nopr@nope.no), September 23, 1999.

Link Stan?

Coffee: July 1999 : Exports = 1 : Imports = 194

*Big Sigh*

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

The U.S. is going to be in a world of hurt when all of the goods we buy from Asia (especially China) all of a sudden get VERY scarce and VERY expensive.

-- @ (@@@.@), September 23, 1999.

Two words: Got Coffee?

And thanks Stan, I've been looking for a list like this for a while.

-- semper paratus (always@ready.for_coffee), September 23, 1999.

Just the categories over $1B in imports in July alone (in $Millions):

Chemicals - medicinal: Imports = 1,258 Clothing: Imports = 5,557 Footwear: Imports = 1,339 Furniture and bedding: Imports = 1,292 Iron and steel mill prod: Imports = 1,141 Metal manufactures, n.e.s.: Imports = 1,229 Paper and paperboard: Imports = 1,073 Petroleum preparations: Imports = 1,318 Textile yearn, fabric: Imports = 1,181 Toys/games/sporting goods: Imports = 1,793

We don't see computers/software/electronics anywhere on the list, do we?

So, the US won't be affected by Y2K, except for chemicals, clothing, shoes, bedding, steel, paper, petroleum, textiles, and toys. And those are just the BIG categories.

Got shoes?

Computers are stupid and they don't care.

Vehicles: Imports = 10,761

-- Brady (brady@docuscribe.com), September 23, 1999.

coffee, TP, coffee, TP, coffee, TP... making my list....

-- April (Alwzapril@home.com), September 23, 1999.

Don't forget Sugar!

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

Diane,

Here's the data link:

News Release from the U.S. Dept. of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis

http://www.bea. doc.gov/bea/newsrel/trad0799.htm

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

Stan:

I think that it is more complicated than the numbers that you provide. For example, my, all-American, Ford Explorer came with a window sticker that said the following: motor made in Germany, transmission made in France. Export/import figures don't tell you much about the import of components for domestically made and sold products.

Best wishes

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Some interesting tables:

Current-Cost Net Stock of Fixed Reproducible Tangible Wealth, 1929 to 1995
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0597niw/table1.htm

Value of the Resource, Additions, and Depletion of Oil, Current Rent Method I (Rate of Return)
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0494od2/tab1-1.htm

Value of the Resource, Additions, and Depletion of Gas, Current Rent Method I (Rate of Return)
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0494od2/tab2-1.htm

Value of the Resource, Additions, and Depletion of Coal, Current Rent Method I (Rate of Return)
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0494od2/tab3-1.htm

Value of the Resource, Additions, and Depletion of All Metals, Current Rent Method I (Rate of Return)
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0494od2/tab4-1.htm

Value of the Resource, Additions, and Depletion of Other Minerals, Current Rent Method I (Rate of
Return)
http://www.bea .doc.gov/bea/an/0494od2/tab5-1.htm

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

Z1X4Y7,

You are absolutely right about manufactures and finished goods. In terms of raw goods, I'd like to analyze Q1-Q4 1998 and Q1-Q3 1999 as a starting point.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

Dog,

As a smoker, I was sure glad to see the numbers on cigarettes. But... I still need to quit.

We also got wheat!

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

Stan,

Thanks so much for this great post. Since the import/export supply line problems are stated in the final Y2K Senate Report, this gives us some particulars, the better to prepare. If you have kids, got toys?

-- Leslie (***@***.net), September 23, 1999.

Stan:

I would like to point out one last thing. This thread has concentrated on the effects of lower availabilty of commodities on the US economy. I would like to point-out that the US is the major provider for a large number of important commodities for other countries [including developing countries]. If transportation fails to any extent it may change our lives; but in countries depending on our exports it may be worse.

Best wishe

-- Z1X4Y7 (Z1X4Y7@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

Z1X4Y7,

Again, I agree with you.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 23, 1999.

Stan, I also noticed that most of the commodities that could be surplus next year if world trade stumbles are the very industries that have low prices this year: agricultural goods. Even if Y2K is only a BITR in the USA next year, I believe our farmers will be really hurting and even more of them will be driven out of business.

Still glad I bought wheat, even if it "may" be cheaper next year. If things go 8/9 then California won't get the cheap Midwest goods anyway. If things go only 2/3, I'll have saved money on coffee and clothes.

-- Margaret J (janssm@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

We drink a lot of coffee, don't we? You see it all over the place--supermarkets, gourmet shops, specialty coffee shops, restaurants, office break rooms, street carts, vending machines--everywhere. So it comes as no surprise to see from the list that we import $194 million of the stuff. So look at medicinal chemicals: $1258 million. OUCH! Got your scrip meds stashed next to the coffee?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 23, 1999.

Thank-you, Stan! This is very helpful (and so are you!) :-)

-- Gayla (privacy@please.com), September 23, 1999.

Stan,

Thanks for the excellent info. However, you left off America's no. 1 export. Greenbacks, both paper and electronic. The world is flooded with them. When everyone realizes that they are worthless IOUs, the collapse will begin.

-- Mr. Adequate (mr@adequate.com), September 24, 1999.