That's right. He's your boy now. Like it or not. We're in the end game. Urging the general public to prepare is a useless waste of breath. Here's why.

The last harvest is in the fields. Budgets through the end of the year are set. Production runs are planned. The Fortune 500 has issued its bonds. Every jackass with a 286 and a domain name has launched his IPO. The stage is set. All the players are in place. The only significant variable remaining is the repair of any remaining faulty code.

I still have some prep to do. But every gallon of kerosene I buy in early December will be a gallon that some one else will be unable to buy in January. Every bushel of wheat you buy now will deplete the stocks by an equal amount and will deprive your fellow man of the right to eat it.

Milne and Hamasaki might be right, and their positions are now clearly on the record and there is no purpose in spreading their message to the sheeple. A year ago, there was a purpose. Now? No purpose. I'll keep reading their posts, but, if you're a GI, Kosky's really your man now. It makes me sick to think that, but it's true. This is one game of politics that you WILL play, like it or not. You have no choice.

Panic or even large scale GI activity by the general public now will hurt you and your family. Panic a year ago might have helped everybody, but that was 1998. Those harvests are gone. Those production cycles have run.

Oh, sure. There is still time to accomplish something. But its a pure zero sum game now.

If you want to urge a friend or family member to prep., by all means do so. But do so with the understanding that you're depriving a stranger of the right to consume those assets.(I'm sure you can live with that, even though it sounds savage when it's analyzed on paper.) But why urge a stranger to prep? If you're successful, you'll simply be depriving another stranger.

Maybe there's a moral picture that I'm missing here. But every lifeboat has its capacity. If you're playing God, what do you do when the lifeboat reaches capacity and there are still people in the water? Assuming that all people are equally deserving of life, do you throw a passenger out of the lifeboat and haul another in out of the sea?

Right now most of the people reading this post are either in a lifeboat or at least have one leg slung over the gunnel. The lifeboats are at capacity. There will be no more lifeboats made between now and Jan 1. There is no moral purpose in calling more swimmers to the boat.

The argument can be made that you can save yourself by saving your community, and I agree with that reasoning. But my personal assessment is that your chances of accomplishing something now in your community approach zero. And if y2k is ABITR, which it may well be, you'll just be branded the reactionary y2k freak for the next decade or so.

If NBC runs that y2k movie, can anything good happen to you as a result? No. Maybe they should have run it 18 months ago. To run it now is frankly, irresponsible.

I realize this post is almost 180 degrees from those I posted 8 months ago. It's not that I'm having a bad day, I just call 'em like I see 'em.

Frankly, I'd love to hear someone make the argument that panic would promote the public good. I don't think that argument can stand in the last quarter of 1999.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), September 23, 1999

Answers

I think you are wrong. Panic will indeed promote the public good.....didn't you ever hear of Darwin? And I'm truly afraid that Mr. Darwin's thesis is the one to be tested in about 99 days.

I do agree with you that to become vocal and 'assist in enlightening the masses' at this point is useless and in fact, may well make you a target of scorn or a .223 later. (Depending on which way this thing goes.) Either one may well be your downfall (especially if it's your boss doing the scorn). Time for low profile, boys and girls.

Check six.

-- Lobo (atthelair@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

Puddin, ain't nohow noway we's ever gonna be on Koffinsky's team, no sirree. Hand me that there pitchfork so'as we kin roast him nice 'n slow on our EO bonfire. Smores, anyone?

[ Flint, don't get too excited; we're still vegetarians. Pass the beans for us! ]

-- Ashton & Leska in Cascadia (allaha@earthlink.net), September 23, 1999.

Puddintame

Sad but true. This is why I felt such desperation to get the word out in March. When I knew it would make a difference. Everyone I know has either listened to me and GI'd or dissassociated themselves from my company.

I have said all my goodbyes. I have made my last visits. Now I just keep my eyes and ears open for those who are preparing and am making bonds with them. I am beyond the shock and outrage of the way this has been handled so far by TPTB. I am just waiting for the hammer to fall and loving indoor plumbing while its still here.

-- R (riversoma@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

You're right, but I have a big mouth and too much anxiety when I don't speak the truth.

-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 23, 1999.

I hate to agree with you Puddintame, because I've been pretty vocal about this on other non-y2k centered forums for a long time. It's pretty much over. This last Senate report was the last chance for the intelligent to do anything. If it's an NBC movie or something else that moves the sheeple, it'll be futile and make things worse.

Bummer. I hope I made a difference while I still could.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), September 23, 1999.

The herd, the herd, the herd....

Awareness is starting... My really DGI sister asked me if I was preping for Y2K...Said "do you have water"....

Water? how much? 5 gal per person 3 day min acording to go-spin-um.....No, we have a gallon of distilled water for the iron...Water, do I need to store water?....Well maybe I will go buy some gallon jugs next trip to the store...

GOT MILK?

_________________________________________

Things will get worse before they get better.................

-- helium (heliumavid@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

Puddintame

I agree that the mass prep activity is a dieing possibility but as far as the "alarmist" sentiment goes we still have a few small bugs to work out.

And the one that I have not finnished with is the three day storm in the middle of the winter. If that is going to be Kosky's speil then he had better come up with some worth while ideas on how to survive such an event. I JUST HATE it when I see these pampered types rattle off such garbage when they have never had the pleasure of living with out power during the winter. There is very little information on the net in regards to this problem. If we get a cold snap or winter storms before the rollover and they are a problem, folks are going to be looking at this and saying "what do we do" and no one will have an answer in the "three day crowd". This is a dirty little secret in the plan no doubt.

Its the very thing that got me interested in Y2K. Watching people freezing in the east cause of the Ice Storm and Rick Cowles was ringing the alarm bells. And I am thinking "and this could happen during the rollover". Then I thought, Y2K might be bad but have a natural winter disaster and you have a Milne 6 (out of 5). That is when there is no need to worry about rioting, starvation, ect. because folks are freezing to death because of stupidity. Even the Y2K "doomers" don't approach this topic much.

I sure hope the power stays up.

-- Brian (imager@home.com), September 23, 1999.

I DGI, I kept saying this all along and now we have some here jumping overboard from the ship called "Here To Save You," and into the boat called "I'm Saving Myself." A lot of stuff should have happened 18 months ago but it didn't. I compare Y2K to religion. You preach the good word and it falls on deaf ears. You feel sad because you want to see everyone saved. But there comes a time when you have to wipe the dust from your feet and get on with your own preparation for the future. No one here should feel guilty for what is about to happen and for your "save myself," attitude. It's a choice and the choices have already been made.

No one can make a good argument for panic ever. Panic causes too many trajedy's, people do not think straight during a panic. It's too late.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 23, 1999.

I don't argue that panic will promote the public good, but I do differ with your assessment that by buying anything now you will cut off someone else later.

There is no shortage of grain in this country. There will be no shortage after Jan 1. There *will* be an inability to get that grain to some areas. I asked my neighbor how much soy beans he had. He asked how much I wanted. Oh, I said, three or four bushels. He said he didn't have any right now, but after harvest he thinks somewhere around 250,000 bushels. This is one family farmer.

As long as the supply chain is intact, preparing is not going to hurt anyone, and it will help *everyone* since most of us are preparing to be sharing.

I do agree that the spin has become overwhelming. Simple honest answers seem to have become a quaint thing of the past.

keepin' on,

gene

-- gene (ekbaker@essex1.com), September 23, 1999.

"But every lifeboat has its capacity."

Puddin,

Like most of the regulars here, be it a doomer or polly, I do love you.

No, it's not too late. A lifeboat can hold many "over capacity." You sit in the boat for 1/2 hour while I'm in the water, and then we'll switch. It's never too late. I just posted a message to Mr. Yourdon. If we can get 1 or 2 or 3 more on the boat, it's it 1 or 2 or 3 less that we have to worry about? The more GIs that we have here, the less problems we will have. It's never too late.

Sure, many may not be up to full speed, but what is full speed? Isn't being prepared for a "3 day storm" better than nothing? Come on now Tame. Why are we here???

It ain't Y2K yet!!!!!!!!!!

Tick.. Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), September 23, 1999.

Take an inventory of your preparations. Be sure you've thought it through. There is time to finalize the small stuff.

And most importantly, there is time to provide extra in your stock to help others. Those who are prepared are in the best position to help others.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), September 23, 1999.

I've been feeling this way lately, but it's not too late for them to at least save extra water and it doesn't cost, so maybe it would be good to push having alot of water, just in case.

-- ?? (???@???.com), September 23, 1999.

It's NOT too late for our DGI family members. Stop whining and keep at it guys.

I'd still like for Milne to use some manners, no need to put a sock in it, just sort of be gentle...

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 24, 1999.

I have to disagree, but only mildly. One of the foremost Y2K problems will be distribution -- getting the goods from the warehouse or factory or cannery to the homes where these goods will be consumed. A "panic" now would at least serve the purpose of accelerating the distribution of goods into neighborhoods and into pantries, where they can be consumed locally.

A warehouse full of 55 gallon barrels of tomato paste or corn syrup will do far less good on 1/1/2000 than the same barrel divvied up and sitting in 1000's of cans on pantry shelves in hundreds of widely distributed homes.

A buying panic today at least ameliorates the problem of getting stuff out into the community before the New Year. Not great, but better than nothing, in my view.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), September 24, 1999.

Puddintame,

Interesting premise. I don't totally agree with it, but I don't necessarily disagree either. For example, I think Brian has a very valid point. Total supplies may be finite at this point but we can still affect their distribution -- out of factories and warehouses and into stores, community shelters, schools and homes.

The situation is especially perplexing for me because (1) my community y2k prep group just this week got a small grant to promote neighborhood prep and (2) I'll be giving the third and final four-hour family prep workshop for the local adult ed program on Oct. 16 (!!!!). This workshop will probably draw the largest attendance of the lot and for the reasons you stated, I have mixed feelings about doing it at all.

However, we have to remember that (ala George Orwell), some pigs are more equal than others(or something like that). Middle and upper-middle class people are most likely to have the resources necessary to do last minute prep as supplies get tight and prices rise. So if outreach efforts are aimed in large part at the working poor, we might at least enable them to have a more equal shot at the liferaft. Since they routinely get the short end of the stick in contemporary society, doing anything to help them improve their lot strikes me as being worthwhile.

-- dhg (dhgold@pacbell.net), September 24, 1999.

Here are a couple of very low-profile suggestions.

1. This is really easy and costs you nothing. If you shop at Kroger, be sure and put your receipt into the bin marked "Food Pantry" or whatever. Kroger donates a percentage of the receipt totals to local food banks and it will be the local food banks who feed the hungry. This is particularly important if you're in NC; the food banks are depleted due to Floyd.

2. Buy extra beans, rice, other food and supplies, and donate to your local food bank just before rollover, say right after Christmas.

3. Write a check, a bit more than you think you can afford, to the Salvation Army before the middle of December. I think most people know where their SA thrift shop is; this is where they might be likely to go in search of assistance.

Food banks and the Salvation Army seem to me to be the most obvious places to go for those who find themselves hungry. Maybe the Baptist Rescue Mission and other local church groups too. In addition, you might jot down the addresses of local "soup kitchens" so you can refer people, if it comes to that. I can feed a couple of my neighbors but no more.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), September 24, 1999.

Puddintame,

Here's my take:

Food:

The stocks of corn, wheat, and other commodities are very high and the fall harvest will add to those stocks. It may be somewhat cavalier, but we might assume that on the CDC, we'll roughly have the following stocks in the country (Millions of Dollars):

Animal Feeds 242 x 3= 729 Cereal Flour 110 x 3= 330 Corn 453 x 3= 1359 Fish 309 x 3= 927 Meat 539 x 3= 1617 Oils/Fats 77 x 3= 231 Rice 66 x 3= 198 Soybeans 200 x 3= 600 Vegetables and Fruits 561 x 3= 1683 Wheat 351 x 3= 1053

At today's value, if wheat is 20 cents/pound, then U.S. stores of wheat total some 5,265,000,000 pounds. Well, it's too late for me to do much more math, but you get the general idea. There's no need for a massive die-off from starvation in the U.S., if the government and the American people can work together. Some people might get hungry while distribution is figured out, some might die due to their current frail conditions or allergic sensitivities, and violent crimes and food riots might result in deaths. Of course, the fare may be quite boring. Nonetheless, if 5% more (or thereabouts) of the American people prepared for 14 days, I really don't see this impacting the stocks mentioned above.

Water:

Potable water is the commodity that worries me most. Again, I will just assume that there is enough spring and well water to meet our total needs in the event of water treatment plant break downs, but transporting and containment of potable water would be a much more difficult challenge than moving food. This is what might cause a significant kill-off of intensely populated metropolitan areas and other regions where fresh water is scarce. But if every household were to store 3 months of potable water (1 gal./person/day) over the next two months, I would like to imagine that this country would be ready to face disruptions to the water supply.

Panic:

There was never a point where public panic was a good idea. If it had happened in the summer of 1998 or whenever, most of us here would not have made it to the lifeboats in time. Progress toward compliancy that has been achieved to date would likely not have been possible. Now is not the time for panic, either. Had the government insisted on 14 days of preparations for all at the beginning of the year, I would really like to think that Y2K risks would have been well prepared for by the American people. But it is still not too late for some kinds of preparations to be made by all. Water, for example.

Hush:

Is it now time to wrap up the community education or limit what we might say? Well, limiting what we say may seem the clever thing to do. But it is dishonest. Wrapping up community education also seems clever enough (as the life boats are lowered and cut free), but this is heartless. There will be those who wrap it up, lay low, and keep very still; some of them may have good reason. There will be others who limit what they say; some have taken that tact from the beginning. Do what you gotta do, I say. I gotta do what I gotta do to get a good night's sleep.

If you can examine your conscience at the end of every day and be profoundly satisfied by what you have done and not done, then you may be doing something right.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 24, 1999.

P.S. It is also possible that the disruptions to the infrastructure might not turn out so badly as some of us worry.

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 24, 1999.

To all,

It is true. Whether we have "supplies undistributed" isn't the point. If things break down to the point that we NEED to " figure out how to distribute the food", realize what all MUST HAVE GONE WRONG.

For there to be no food, means that there are no trains, or truck deliveries to cites, that people can't drive to the store, because evidently there's no gas, because oil is at $100.00 a barrel, because there are no shipments from overseas, which has crashed the stockmarket, and bankrupted almost everyone, which means that even if the power stayed on for a while, no one could pay the utility bill -so the power companies couldn't pay their bills, so they went broke too.

That's if the banks stay up.

Then the banks go down. Then we reach the point where there will never be grown that much FOOD for a VERY VERY long time.

I just wish ONE of my friends would have ever figured this out and moved to the country with me. After all, isn't people what make LIFE important?

The transition is what is hard to see. How will we really react, when those in your area start to realize, and start to need food and supplies?

Even if you only live around 3 or 4 people, you have 3 or 4 MAJOR problems, and what will you do? Watch them starve while you hide in your house? If they think you're dead, they'll come over to see if you have anything. If you look healthy, they'll know you have FOOD. Is that when you'll kill them.

Are we just going to shoot anybody and everybody starting at 300yds?

If you're putting up that kind of fight, LOTS of survivors will know you have something to protect. Can you stay up 24-7?

Just some of my wierd thoughts. I wish it were different.

Sitting on the edge ......

-- Gregg (g.abbott@starting-point.com), September 24, 1999.

Puddintame,

Your point is well taken, and I know that at this late date, not everyone in the U.S. would be able to prepare the way many of us on this forum already had earlier this year. I think most of the general public, though, will wait until December 31st to do any extra shopping--if they do any at all.

In the meantime, it looks as if recommended prep time in Georgia is now up to two weeks, apparently with official blessing:

http://www.accessatlanta.com/partners/ajc/reports/y2k/dos.html

[snip]

Washington -- Don't panic, but get prepared. While the nation's basic infrastructure will function after Jan. 1, authorities say the Y2K computer bug is sure to cause some problems. The power could go out in one community, while the water system falters in another and traffic lights malfunction in still another. Because no one can say with certainty which systems might fail, "the basic message we are giving people is ... be prepared for an emergency," said Red Cross spokeswoman Leslie Credit. Start your preparations by figuring out who is going to be in your household between Dec. 31 and mid-January, and what each person's special needs will be. Then lay out a strategy for making sure everyone can stay hydrated, healthy and warm for up to two weeks. These are among the recommendations being made by mainstream agencies:

[snip]

-- Linkmeister (link@librarian.edu), September 24, 1999.

This thread is good, very, very good. I just finished posting on another thread about how the compassionate side of the issue is so often ignored, and then I stumbled upon this one. Even if you all are just *debating* about the merits of being a compassionate human, at least you're finally talking about it. Perhaps you will finally realize what I did a long time ago -- it's not going to be that can of beans that sees me through, it's going to be the relationships around me that I've been carefully "prepping" for a long time. I may refer to myself as grngrl, but I have plenty of life experience in the interesting areas of war, deprivation and months long hardship. Swaggering, self-assured fellows who had stockpiled incredible stores of guns and ammo came to the "family campfires" with their tail between their legs seeking fellowship. Believe me, the PEOPLE around me were infinetly more important to my survival than any carefully planned "preps". By all means, do your prepping. Just remember to have PEOPLE at the top of that list.

-- grngrl (jhandt@gte.net), September 24, 1999.

For every bushel of wheat I buy now, it is one bushel of wheat that will not rot in some farmer's tank. Please get real. There is not a food shortage, only a distribution problem.

-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), September 24, 1999.

Well said grngrl, ultimately both the prepared and the unprepared will survive or not, according to the type of social network support they have. This forum as a whole seems to lose sight of that at times.

A balance of self-sufficiency with preps and good social network is best IMO, unless you're the lonely type who can and wants to live alone in a remote isolated area for years, or on the flip side, you're willing to give up all your independance and wait in soup kitchen lines.

-- Chris (#$%^&@pond.com), September 24, 1999.

Milne can keep posting imo.

-- Mitchell Barnes (spanda@inreach.com), September 24, 1999.

Thanks for all the responses. I continue to believe that in a crisis, the problem would be more one of pure supply as opposed to merely distribution.

Granted there could be an initial distribution problem until the government coordinates its logistics, but there is enough gasoline and trucking hardware which can be commandeered to haul grain from the midwest to every corner of the country.

Now the water argument is a good one. Water is currently free, clean, universally available and easily stored. Water is not a zero sum game and my argument stands amended. Water will also be the most critical asset.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), September 24, 1999.

The transition is what is hard to see. How will we really react, when those in your area start to realize, and start to need food and supplies?

They will panic and do whatever is necessary to allow them to survive. If that means killing you and your family and taking your supplies, then that's what they're going to do.

Even if you only live around 3 or 4 people, you have 3 or 4 MAJOR problems, and what will you do? Watch them starve while you hide in your house?

There's no need to watch them unless they're making a move towards your house.

If they think you're dead, they'll come over to see if you have anything. If you look healthy, they'll know you have FOOD. Is that when you'll kill them.

Yes.

Are we just going to shoot anybody and everybody starting at 300yds?

Only if we want to survive.

If you're putting up that kind of fight, LOTS of survivors will know you have something to protect.

Maybe, maybe not. If they know anything at all, they know that if they approach the house, they will probably get killed. That would probably be enough to keep most of them away. Just as the sign in front of Paul Milne's house says:

Trespassers will be shot. Survivors will be shot again.

Just some of my wierd thoughts. I wish it were different.

Don't we all.

-- (its@coming.soon), September 24, 1999.

Puddintame,

As long as DOE doesn't sell SRO, I would very much like to imagine that strategic use of transportation could go as long as six months. I assumed this in my take.

Anyway, I'm glad you are feeling better.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (info@giglobal.com), September 24, 1999.

In times of national emergencies Americans have always for the most part pulled together and used the unique ingenuety that our form of freedom propagates. If the pollys on this forum advocate being prepared then the average person has probably done some preparing just in case. Batteries are changed in smoke detectors twice a year without much fan fare ~ at least people know they should be. We set our clocks forward or back twice a year. With all of the natural disasters happening I believe everyday people have done at least basic preperations wheather they would admit to it or not.

Now we wait.....

-- Cherri (sams@brigadoon.com), September 25, 1999.

That's the problem -- people know what they should do, but don't get around to it. Procrastination = panic = crush.

-- manana (manana@manana.manana), September 25, 1999.

No actually, Puddintame...

Think theres still time for those, who care, to get ready for a couple weeks. Or so. The level of apathy and complacency appears to be whats real... but is it? Who knows? (About as hard to assess as the code being completely fixed or just the key functions).

Yes, we can look forward to advance warnings beginning with the Koskinen spin-cycle, in October, telling folks to get ready for the upcoming 3-day storm (NOT the one of the Century). And BTW... DONT PANIC!

Were ALL Y2K-OK! (Sorta... except for you local folks).

Some people will pay attention, most wont. And frankly, its understandable. Why? Because were conditioned toward JIT, just-in- time consumption and FOF, fix-on-failure lives. Why should Y2K, or next year be any different? People dont typically get off the couch until theres no choice.

I expect that if NBC airs the Y2K Aftershock on Nov. 21st, that most wont see it. Look at the calendar. Its the Sunday before Thanksgiving. Family vacation, travel and gathering time. Another... Yawn. Whatcha think the turkey day discussions will be about? Shopping... for Xmas bargains.

Give it til Christmas. Well... maybe the day after. Then we might see *some* anticipatory consumption. Or not.

Then its... PARTY TIME!

(For most... at work).

Remember, in a partial shipwreck... theres still alot of floating stuff to hang onto in the water. Not everybody needs to be in a cozy lifeboat to make it... on dry land. Yeah, in some areas itll be freezing. In others... tennis weather. Effects... and aftereffects... ARE all local.

So, well learn something new. Or not.

Doubt most will GI until its in their face. Stay tuned. Could be interesting. And the expected fall PANIC... just might NOT happen... until next year... and only then in local areas, and across the street.

So, smile. Shift Happens... eventually. Compassion works too.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), September 25, 1999.

Oh, I agree, Diane. There is actually ample time for an individual to prepare. My argument was that there is no moral purpose in urging a complete stranger to prepare at this point, since there is a known finite quantity of resources which can be consumed in the next 12 months. You'd simply be taking a sandwich out of one stranger's hand and handing it to another stranger. There's no morality there. I have amended my argument, since there are few practical constraints on the amount of water which could be stored in the next 3 months.

I will buy the argument that a moral purpose is served by urging a stranger to store water up until the very last possible moment.

-- Puddintame (achillesg@hotmail.com), September 25, 1999.