Y2K preps in a "10"greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread
Whether you loved or hated my deleted post, be truthful with yourself in answering these next couple questions...
1. How long could my family and I survive on the preps that we have made if Y2K turns into a 10?
2. If Y2K isn't a 10, but the main bread-winner in my household loses their job next year, due to a Y2K problem, how many paychecks are we from becoming homeless Y2K refugees? 2 paychecks, 3, 4, or more?
-- Mr. Friendly (email@example.com), September 27, 1999
No bills, house paid off, 5 to 7 years of food. No sweat!
-- freddie (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
1. In a true Infomagic-level scenario, about a month. Where circumstances I cannot control have forced me to live, a moderate or worse war will mean the quick elimination of myself and most of my relatives. (Can you say "ground zero"? The things one will risk for ill/old family... Oh well, I've already reconciled myself with my chosen deity...) For everyone else this would depend greatly on their own little "world" and its reach, problems, etc.
2. I'd imagine that the average American family is about two paychecks from the slide to oblivion, and four to eight from homelessness based on how long it generally takes to boot a resident from a home. Most folks I've known over the years that didn't have any real assets to fall back on could, at best, hold out for maybe three paychecks' time (almost a month) with no real income before they are totally screwed to the extent that recovery would require 6 months or more of steady income.
Good luck getting one definitive answer to those Qs... ;-)
That insane guy that posts as...
-- OddOne (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
1) If you are virtually alone (isolated rural locations) and no one knows about your preps you might be able to survive a ten for as long as your food and water will hold you.
If you live anywhere that there are other people around and they haven't prepared then I don't give much chance of surviving beyond them becoming desperate and finding out that you are not.
That's a ten.
2)As far as 'becoming homeless refugees' I don't think there is any guessing because we don't know more about your situation. IMHO anything above a 7.5 will not see the typical 'bancrupcy' situations where the deputy comes to the door to remove you from the premises because of foreclosure. Why? Because there will be ALOT more pressing issues such as maintaining civil order, etc.
If at all possible any person who expects a 6 or higher should strongly consider a fall back position which includes taking your preps with you to the undisclosed location, preferably 100 miles away from a major population center.
Why wait to be a refugee to figure out what ou would do to limit your time experience of same status???
-- ..- (Dit@Dot.Dash), September 27, 1999.
East Coast-120-million people!
And anyone wants to tell me that they will ever be prepared for that? Whats my bugout plan?? LOL
Psychologically the mind cannot go there--it is not our fault-- built in mechanism. But it is nice to feel all prepped on this side!
-- David Butts (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
No, David, Minds go there. We know we can die. Preparation means a possibility that if things are less bad we won't. Mr. Friendly, don't draw all your conclusions yet. LIfe changes in an instant. Maybe some well-prepped woman will take pity on you...
-- Mara Wayne (MaraWayne@aol.com), September 27, 1999.
Mara, The idea was to ask yourself inwardly about your own preps, not to speculate on my (Mr. Friendly's) readiness.
-- Mr. Friendly (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
& you want to survive in a "10" world?
-- Mitchell Barnes (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
Let me preface my remarks by stating that while I believe a '10' is marginally possible should Y2K disruptions be coupled with other threats that we face, I do not consider it the most likely scenario. Possible? Yes, remotely. Likely? No.
The short answer to how long we would survive in the event of a 10: about 2 seconds.
There are two big problems I have with with preparing for a 10. The first is the difficulty of actually preparing for a 10. Quite literally, you would need several years to plan and educate yourself for it and even then you are not likely to survive something that catastrophic. How would you plan for a giant asteroid hitting the planet?
The second and more significant issue is the risk of being wrong. If you absolutely knew, no ifs ands or buts, that a catastrophy of that magnitude was imminent, you would 'bet the farm'.
Nothing in the preps we've made this past year (and it's been a long process) assumes a worst case scenario. We think some mild to moderate disruptions in infrastructure are possible, though not certain. If we've bet wrong, then we are out some money and some significant labor. We will be delighted if that is the case next year. We are prepared to be wrong. If we can laugh at ourselves 6 months from now, it will be a good day.
But there is no way we could prepare for a '10' and still afford to be wrong. We feel we are well prepared for a 0-5 scenario. Incidently, this level of preparation was based not so much on perceived level of threat - we believe a wide range of possible outcomes exist.
Rather, it is a factor of the length of the preparation window. We started preparing in the late summer of 1998. There simply was not time to be more prepared without 'betting the farm' on a 10. Since we only see that as a remote possibility, it didn't make sense to work towards that level of preparation.
For us, Y2K has never been about either a '0' or a '10'. It's more about being more self-reliant and less dependendent on our interconnections.
Mrs. Rimmer and I believe we are more prepared than most in our area should any actual disruptions occur. We will have food, water, shelter, heat, and could live without jobs for several months. Last summer, we accelerated our plans to eliminate our debt and have done so - with the sole exception of our house. Should disruptions be mild to moderate, we will even be able to help our friends and neighbors.
However, should we be incorrect in our assessment and things end up being worse than we are prepared for, we will most likely not survive. We've discussed this several times and from several angles. We've agreed to 'bet' that the likelyhood of a total meltdown is so small that we shouldn't spend time worrying about it.
However, if things go to a 6 or above, we would find ourselves in increasing difficulty. Eventually, the game would be over. The fact that a lot of less-prepared people would lose their lives first does not give us any comfort at all.
-- Arnie Rimmer (Arnie_Rimmer@usa.net), September 27, 1999.
Mr. Friendly, I think about this often. I've actually tried to use your #2 to change the POV of my DWGI family members.
I think the most important preparation for surviving a "10" is in the mind. It can go there. In fact, it has to, doesn't it?
The only way to survive a 10 is to be willing and able to adapt to change, mentally. You have to make up your mind that you will survive no matter what occurs.
For instance, don't be so pre-occupied with holding on to your property or home that you'll fight to the death to keep it (what ever the circumstance). If this is the case, you didn't survive a 10. If you're essential to the health and well-being of your family you may affect their ability to survive a 10 as well. You can have 10 years of preps on your property that can go up in flames or be taken away in a matter of moments.
Even if you're forced to give everything up you can still survive if THAT is your desire.
-- Michael Taylor (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
Human beings are the most adaptable and successful creatures on the earth. Cover the basics, and try to prepare for change. This may only be a wake-up cue to consider the big picture and plan accordingly.
-- flora (***@__._), September 27, 1999.
Great handle from a great TV show. It's probably the only other reason I watch anything on public TV. The other reason....Blackadder!
-- TM (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.
No way to prep for a "10", IMHO.
I guess it all depends on what you consider a "10"...
To me, a "10" scenario involves nuclear war, FIAT money collapse, biological warfare... just a REALLY bad time. None of us will survive this for very long. Better to be at ground zero in this scenario... IMHO...
sleepin' on the porch...
-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), September 27, 1999.
Goals: Enough food in storage to have time to expand the garden to self-sufficiency. Sailboat to catch fish for 1-2 years (or until sails wear out!). Solar-powered Ham radio... The real question is how long it would take us to get the biofuel facilities up and running...
-- Mad Monk (email@example.com), September 27, 1999.
Not to worry, TM, I 'ave a cunning plan....
-- Mr. Mike (firstname.lastname@example.org), September 27, 1999.