I am going to sell my full-size conversion van this weekend. It gets about 12 mpg on a good day. Plan to take the proceeds from the sale and buy a Geo Metro (50 mpg). I have come to realize that my van, much as i like it, will not be a viable mode of transportation if gas is either too expensive or is rationed. I remember the 1970's when you could buy a big vehicle for a song due to the trippling of gas prices at that time.

Also starting to fill the barrels i have acquired with kerosene.

I would like some feedback from the people on this forum with regard to fuel availability and price as y2k approaches and finally strikes.

Questions:

1. Price of a gallon of unleaded regular gas in Dec 1999, January 2000, March 2000, June 2000?

2. Percentage chance that gas will be rationed at some point between now and June, 2000? (20% chance, 50% chance, etc.)

Thanks in advance for your feedback.

-- incredulous (cantbelievit@aol.com), September 30, 1999

Answers

Of all the Y2K problems that will hit home to the average John Doe, gas prices will be the most noticable. Currently gasoline is $1.19 here, and I expect for it to continue to increase. Here is my guess -- 1.30 Dec ---- Feb 2000 2.00 ---- June 3.00. As for rationing, I assume you are thinking about government rationing, and that is anyones guess. Prices being $3.00 will be rationing by its self.

-- chicken farmer (chicken-farmer@ y2k.farm), September 30, 1999.

incred,

best bet is to buy a diesel (no shortage of diesel fuel during the 70s gas crisis!). i just got myself a vw golf (2000 ). gets close to 45 mpg and can do 115.

i think gov will probably freeze the price of gasoline to prevent gouging, especially if/when it comes to rationing.

personally, i dont see HOW a severe shortage CANNOT occur at this point. getting oil from there to here is the most complex process on earth, loaded everwhere with vulnerabilities.

thats my 2 cents anyway.

-- lou (lanny1@ix.netcom.com), September 30, 1999.

Frozen prices will equal NO gas.

-- none (none@none.com), September 30, 1999.

In 2000 you will have to register to recieve a "gas card" with which a certain amount of gas will be alloted to you on a weekly or daily basis. That's all.

Anyone here plan on registering?

-- CygnusXI (noburnt@toast.net), September 30, 1999.

Prices Now in New England area Massachusetts $1.51/Premium $1.46/Mid Grade $1.29/Low New Hampshire $1.48/Premium $1.32/Mid Grade $1.22/Low By E.O.Y, I figure a 20 to 30 cent hike per gallon. No Available prices on Kero or Diesel Figure if rollover is severe...no gas will exist...Time to start pricing those used Swiss Army bikes Otherwise, expect minor problems foe rollover? The expect MAJOR gouging by the gas companies...

-- Billy-Boy (Rakkasn@Yahoo.com), September 30, 1999.

December 1999 $1.30 per gallon January 2000 $1.50 March 2000 $5.00 June 2000 $8.00 December 2000 $4.00?

Chance of rationing during 2000? 100%

Just a SWAG. I'm on Ed Yourdon's scale at 4-7 so I think there will be "moderate" problems.

-- Margaret J (janssm@aol.com), September 30, 1999.

Ray and I were driving by a gas station the other night. We both looked at the price and noticed it was a bit up. After a bit of discussion, we both agreed that it would be $6 by next summer. (If we can get any.)

www.y2kkitchen.com

Jump Start Your Personal Contingency Plan

Being prepared means not having to drive around and use precious gas to get stuff you should have bought last month.

-- Sally Strackbein (sally@y2kkitchen.com), September 30, 1999.

Don't gas stations have embedded chips? I read where the majority of them have not replied to questions about Y2K readyness. Some embedded chips will fail. Also you need electricity to pump gas. Areas with no electricuty = no gas at any price.

-- Mr. Pinochle (pinochledd@aol.com), September 30, 1999.

Don't plan on using gasoline.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), September 30, 1999.

Margaret wins the prize.

If you're a city-dweller, please make sure that you have enough gas to make it to your primary bug-out location.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), September 30, 1999.

What is the price of gas in Canada, New Zealand, Australia? A far bit pricier in their own dollars compared to here in the U.S., correctamundo?

That's about to change. And remember, it's not the price of oil that is going up, it is the reduction in value of what the dollar can buy. Our dollar is on it's way to tanking.

And I'm willing to bet they won't be screaming about the price of gas in the EURO block countries as we fall into the sinkhole of inflation.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), September 30, 1999.

Incredulous,

Obviously, everything hinges upon the following

1. Will the oil wells remain functioning? Will embedded systems take them down? How many will go down.

2. Will the pipelines be able to remain open and flowing? Here again will the embedded systems shut things down? Will there be phone connections to assist in controlling problems.

3. Will the refineries remain operational? Will they have power? Will they have phones? Will their embedded systems still function?

4. Will the gas retailer's pumps lock up? Will they have electricity? Will their cash registers function? Will their phone lines and credit card systems function?

5. What about foreign oil suppliers? Saudi Arabia, Venezuela, Iraq Iran and other countries are way behind on remediation. These folks supply about half of our oil needs.

6. Questions regarding whether or not there will be problems with oil tankers that ship the oil to the U.S.

Answers:

Having posted a couple of articles here on my oil industry research and contacts... Here's the minimum guesses... and remember these ARE GUESSES ... but based upon honest sources with limited information so be advised...

Minimum of 5% temporary drop in crude oil. Minimum. Such a move will have a similar effect to the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo. Minimum price jumps to $2.00. This is based on only a 5% drop in domestic production due to a portion of larger oil wells shutting down.

Compound this with many cold-weather refineries shutting down for about 2-3 days prior to rolloever to perhaps remaining down for much of New Year's day.

Figure some stockpiling and hoarding in December, prior to rolloever which again puts pressure on prices.

Now, for the crunching numbers... It is conceivable that many if not most big wells will be affected for a minimum of several days to perhaps a year! Combine this with any pipeline problems, refining problems, weather, and perhaps severe problems with imports...and we could see perhaps a 50% loss in supplies...and its not impossible to see perhaps a decline of 60% or even 80% drop in supplies. IF this happens... I suspect it will severely impact on electricity and it will seriously impact government's ability to implement any kind of rationing. Therefore, I don't anticipate rationing. Price itself and availability may well be the determining factors.

I think $2.00 is a safe bet even if its just a "bump in the road." You'll see prices climb to nearly this level by late December.

Strong possibility of $3.00 a gallon gasoline in January or even perhaps $4.00 per gallon.

IF there is a major hit of 60-80% loss of crude supplies then the skies the limit and very few will likely even see gasoline for perhaps much of the year 2000.

If the oil industry does a near-melt-down then expect Prices to soar to dizzying heights. There likely would be no way for the gov't to do gas rationing.

Expect dizzying price results in other petro product pricing.

-- R.C. (racambab@mailcity.com), September 30, 1999.

Funny thing I'm doing right now. Got a full size pickup (34 gallon tank) and a 30 mile 1 way commute. Looking to get a new job within bicycling distance from home. The Irony, the company I'm looking at makes gas pumps and I would be programming those little chips.....

My guess has been $4.00/gal P2K.....

-- BH (silentvoice@pobox.com), September 30, 1999.

Refer to Dog Gone's Saudi Oil Ports thread before you lay down any more chips.

-- lisa (lisa@work.now), September 30, 1999.

Answers (really just my SWAGs):

1. Price on Dec. 15, 1999: $1.60/gallon.

Price on Jan. 15, 2000: $2.10/gallon.

Price on Mar. 15, 2000: $3.00/gallon.

Price on Jun. 15, 2000: $2.80/gallon.

2. 10% chance of rationing in the USA by June 30, 2000. AFAIK, the US Congress is the only body that has the power to impose rationing. It will still be the same inefficient, money-driven institution as now. The oil companies are among the world's largest, richest companies. The Congress is unlikely to impose rationing unless the electorate is clearly converging on that idea. No chance of any Congressional action before April 1.

The gas prices I gave were based on the idea that US oil supply will drop by roughly 20%, before recovering during the summer months of 2000. Demand would drop quickly, too, as prices rise. But I think it will take at least $3/gallon gas for demand to even out with supply. As I said, these are only guesses. YMMV.

-- Brian McLaughlin (brianm@ims.com), September 30, 1999.

At least three bucks a gallon by February 29, 2000, with a 50% or better chance of rationing. It will drop back to $2 within 18 months...because of decreased demand.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), September 30, 1999.

Can we say massive layoffs due to the increase in oil prices? Salespeople, appliance repair people, truckers, farmers, railroad. It definately will force people to carpool if your lucky enough to have a job. Then the products themselves will skyrocket, whatever happened to that deflationary sceanrio that was floating around? I see a 3-4% increase in inflation starting around the first of December and on into January and beyond.

-- bardou (bardou@baloney.com), September 30, 1999.