I have spent the morning rereading the archives and the wonderful discussions there re the future. I, for one, am tired of thinking about the #10 scenarios and am glad to get beyond that in thought. I have been thinking that what happens to you and yours in the year 2000 is totally dependent upon where you are now and where you have been before. Hubby and I live in the country in a very mild climate. No one is going to freeze here. Food can be grown year around, water is ample and clean. We have a chunk of cash, a hand pump on a well, a large generator, and food for a year and plenty of fuel. So, when all hell breaks loose, we will hunker down. But fast forward to March, 2000. The riots are quelled, the food and water lines are long but being handled without too much problem, the shelters are full, but organized, and with a full belly and lack of panic (one can stay in the stage of panic only for so long)the brains will go into gear. Not being one that knows much about how the economy works now, and of the opinion that the current system will have broken its neck in its final dive, it seems to me that PRODUCTION is the key. For me, personaly, production means growing more chickens, planting a larger garden, working harder physcially to keep life and limb together. Those in the cities will have a totally different scenario and production schedule. There will be block parties where things get organized, anywhere from what time of day do the water trucks come to who is going to see that old Mrs Jones in apt 105 gets water, to who is going to work the night shifts on the newly set up neighborhood patrol and who is going to get all the kids organized to clean up the empty lots to get ready for planting.

Downtown, the scenario will be far different. The grocery store will be getting in what food he can from the local producers (all veggies and fruits will be seasonal)and what he can get from the FEMA centers, and either he or the city or the federal gubmint will have set up a ration system. Farther up town, the big boys will be trying to figure out how to resume business, having not only lost 98% of their business, but in having to gear down the services provided by their business. Those who have lost their jobs will be trying to figure out what kind of service they can provide.

The gov't will have to remove some of the people in the cities simply due to numbers. They will have to get the people into a situation that is manageable. Some will be sent to farms that have been set up by the gov't. These people will more than likely be happy to go in order to get out of the city and they will know they will get food. Better to live in a tent top in fresh air and work all day and get 3 square meals a day and not have garbage and sewage piling up around you. These will be then organized within each place...like a Kibbutz in Isreal. From the street kid may come some of the best ideas and leadership of all. After all he is used to living by his witts. For the street kid may also come the first sense of self esteem and responsibility that he has ever known.

I think the organization that takes place will start at various levels and work its way up and down. I think that the top layers of gov't will be so ineffective as to be ignored. Don't depend on Clinton and his boys and girls to come to your rescue. It will be the local gov'ts and the upper stratas of big business that will begin to put it back together. Each of us will work on it based on where we have been and where we are now. Yes, I think there will be riots in the cities, etc. But they will stop when those people get cold and hungry enuff. It will take some months before the building process will ever start. And I use the word building rather than re building because I don't think we will ever get back to where we are now. We will, instead, go someplace else...it may even be better, but no one is going to be able to follow the previous path without deviation.

I know I am rambling....Taz

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 01, 1999

Answers

Taz- Right on.

In many small businesses in the start-up phase, the first problem is marketing whatever it is they have to sell. The second problem is production (usually ramping up when someone actually wants to buy it).

Waiting for government to do something is usually the kiss of death. You are right that we will need to do whatever needs to be done.

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 01, 1999.

taz, that's what WOULD HAVE happened, had we got on the ball in 97 or 98. It's obvious,to me anyway, that the technical side could have been managed by measures that you describe. Instead, becasue of mass stupidity and denian on the part of leaders and of the general public, we will be faced with all the big cities in the norht ending up like leningrad in WWII, and all of the cities in the south ending up like Nanking. BUT, some rural areas will survive like you have claimed, and may well look like a kibbutz. But, one the whole, I stick to my original scenario, ROAD WARRIOR, with pockets of little house on the prarie.

-- jeremiah boyd (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 01, 1999.

Taz - you state: "The gov't will have to remove some of the people in the cities simply due to numbers. They will have to get the people into a situation that is manageable. Some will be sent to farms that have been set up by the gov't."

Thinking of the farmers and ranchers I know, any attempts at nationalization of private farms and ranches would probably not be done without bloodshed. Besides, it would accomplish little, as the knowledge base of agriculture would go with the casualties. In addition, I don't think rural communities would take kindly to a flood of "flatlanders."

City folk have got to understand that the rural reaction to the type of scenario portrayed above would not be like that of England or America during WWII. Rural folk were supporting their men and boys in service and would fiercely sacrifice to do so. Families in England took in urban children and single urban women were organized to help on farms.

Many rural people - loggers, miners, ranchers and farmers, feel betrayed, disrespected and villanized by urbanites and urban/suburban anti-rural initiatives. Bitterness against urban and suburbanites is strong in many parts of the West. I believe that many rural communities would tend more to isolate, defending their islands of self-sufficiency and leaving the cities to survive on whatever remains of their own resources.

-- marsh (armstrng@sisqtel.net), October 01, 1999.

Bingo marsh, absolutely. That being said, I don't think rural peopel would be proud of the situation, just that that may be the case, and with the miserable contingency planning done so far... well, it eseems more and more likely. just for voicing such opinions, I have been accused of believign that rebuilding isn't possible. not true not true at all. i just believe, personally that urban people, and urban culture are about to go the way of the dodo. do I harbor any personal hostility to city dwellers? no. I'm not anti-urban, i'm just pro-rural, being that i'm a rural persaon, of course I want to see the countryside survive. I have focused my efforst in that vein. when you boil it down we need each other, we support you., you provide us with finished goods. Next year, on the other hand, through no fault of our own, we may not be able to support the cities anymore, the cities will die. But, hopefully, enough city people will survive (this all assumes y2k is pretty bad, 7-9) so that some sort of relationship can be worked out. In other words, if you try to make it out of the city, good luck, but from the lack of preparedness out herre it doesn't seem to me that very many farmers will be willing or able to take anybody in. That complacency, fostered by the powers that be, will kill millions, so if you are an urban GI who bugs out too late, gets caught in the backwash and dies a foul death, don't blame the bubba and his roadblock, blame john koskinen. If i had my way, the extra food I have stored would go to refugees, but beitn that most of my neighbors are nitwits, it seems I will have to feed them first, and simple math tells me, the first guy down the raod hoping for some sympathy and a bowl of beans is going to be rudely disappointed.

-- jeremiah (braponspdetroit@hotmail.com), October 02, 1999.

Many of the Jews in WWII were told they were going away to work at a 'farm or factory' when rounded up and put on the death trains.

-- Porky (Porky@in.cellblockD), October 02, 1999.

Hi Taz, I think city folk are going to have to take on some rural values and activities. There is plenty of land within most city limits that can be turned into vegetable gardens and people can do a lot in their own backyards as well. Where I live, there is a good organization of "urban gardeners" who promote composting, gardening, etc., and there are community gardens for all kinds of people. As I am stuck in the city with my family, I have to hope that there will be some way of surviving, and maybe even thriving after a time. I think there is a lot that urbanites can do/must do without overrunning their rural neighbors.

-- Amy Marsh (canaryclub@aol.com), October 03, 1999.

As has been said, many times before (And I know how weary people are of hearing it), no one really knows exactly what will happen.

However, if someone put a gun to my head, and forced me to make a bet, I'd put my money on Taz's scenario.

-- Bokonon (bok0non@my-Deja.com), October 03, 1999.

When I said that the gubmint would have to move some of the city people out to farms, I didn't mean to MY farm or YOUR farm. I envisioned some tent cities like the Japanese internment camps. Also they would start gardens, kitchens,etc. This would most likely be done on State or Federal property. NO FARMER is going to take it lightly to have hundry mouths dumped on them. Especially when these people haven't a clue as to how to survive. They just would be parasites that were constantly whining and making life hard for everyone. It will be the non productive that will get shipped out. My firm statement is: Where you WILL BE after Jan 1 is directly a result of where you HAVE BEEN. If you don't know how to take care of yourself now, you are in for a hell of ride.

-- Taz (Taz@aol.com), October 04, 1999.

Moving people to the "country" could be to "temporary" internment camps, ala the Japanese camp on the eastern side of the High Sierras (in the Owens Valley) during WW II. The countryside is bleak (but empty). There is a LOT of such land in the US, and most of it is owned by the government.

On the other hand, I doubt if such a measure would work...because of the massive numbers of people to be relocated. Also, an internment camp can be a breeding ground for revolution (note what happened with the Palistinians living in Gaza).

-- Mad Monk (madmonk@hawaiian.net), October 04, 1999.

Well, I've always been a survivalist...unfortunatly, I'm a diabetic who's going blind...I can get by ok for a bit...have a few things put back but not like I was 8 years ago...went homeless and am in the middle of recovery....soooo....I hope for the best, experience-however has taught me to prepare for the worst. So, I've stocked some grub and guns...seeds...a few things I could do...got family in a warmer climate as well as freinds spread here and there. I know woods and animals like I know myself. Hope for the best and figure the worst.

I guess my biggest fear is Russia or China launching on us under the Y2K guise..."OOPS! Sorry...WE didn't do it!" That's more scary than what you folks are considering.

-- Satanta (satanta@zdnetmail.com), December 01, 1999.