Question: How will I (we) know the difference between Y2K and an high-altitude EMP blast ???

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

I am just wondering about that...If the power goes out 12-31-1999 or 01-01-2000 how do we know?? The question is important to me because I am near two potential nuclear targets.

All I can figure on is checking some sort of item that would not be affected by Y2K but would be by an EMP blast...I just have no clue what that item(s) would be??

TIA

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), October 05, 1999

Answers

If you are alive, and your power goes out from emp, you will hear the blast.

-- none (none@none.com), October 05, 1999.

Your VCR. Also, if planes are falling out of the sky, that's a good hint.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 05, 1999.

not taking into account the embeds, you may be able to check your radio. Hopefully radio stations will be able to broadcast off of generators if the power should go down. Just a thought.

-- (cannot-say@this.time), October 05, 1999.

Any battery powered radio, solid state circuitry (essentially any portable radio)would be affected by an EMP blast. Of course, there's also that really big flash of light.

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), October 05, 1999.

If the power is out AND your battery operated laptop (with a charged battery) is also dead, EMP....

-- justtryntohelp (beenthere@donethat.com), October 05, 1999.


Get yourself an early microwave oven that does not embedded chips. Buy a generator that is Y2K compliant. Plug the microwave oven into the generator. On New Year's eve, start the generator. If the lights go out, see if the microwave oven will work. If it does, its Y2K; if it does not, its EMP.

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 05, 1999.

FYI...90% of all major market radio stations have back up generators. So do ALL major market television news studios. Course, if YOUR powers off, TV won't help ya much. Everyone should have a portable radio in their stock with plenty of batteries...it's a no brainer.

IF they airburst a couple of hundred kiloton nukes over the central US, they could probably knock out every solid state devise in the country. (Who is "they"...I really need to watch out for "them"..I'm scareing myself)

-- kritter (kritter@adelphia.net), October 05, 1999.


If you see cars stopped dead in the road all at the same time, that would be an EMP. As far as other Y2K disruptions and power outages, they'll happen more gradually and sporadically.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 05, 1999.

Check the size of the stool in Maria's pants. Large=Y2K. Very large=EMP.

-- a (a@a.a), October 05, 1999.

Good question.

In either case matches will still work.

If EMP is the cause, we got a bigger problem.

Better buy more matches.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 05, 1999.



How about an EMP first, to knock out our missile defense systems, followed by a missile full of anthrax exploded right over the West coast to drift across the whole country. By the time we realized what we were breathing, it would be too late.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 05, 1999.

A simple battery operated transistor radio should do the trick. If it's multi-power, be sure IT IS ON BATTERY power to use as an EMP tester. A few months ago when Yeltsin was rattling the nuclear saber over our Kosovo adventure, I scared the crap out of myself for about 5 seconds with my radio. I had the radio running on batteries both for news and EMP purposes. Trying to be considerate, I kept this to myself not wanting to scare my wife. My wife (ever practical and gorgeous) noticed that I had the battery circuit on and wanting to conserve the batteries turned it to the AC setting when I was gone. Later in the day we had a power outage and my trusty EMP-detecting radio immediately went dead... It took me several minutes to see the humorous aspect of the situation.

Good luck Doc

-- T.H. "Doc" Toups (ttoups@aol.com), October 05, 1999.


With an EMP blast you might not ever see or hear the actual bomb. It could be a large one detonated high over the middle of the United States. That could take out most of the modern electronic gadgets in the continental USA. If Y2K arrives and even your battery-operated radios don't work, it's probably not just Y2K. EMP could also strike electronic ignition modules in cars.

-- Noah Simoneaux (noaj@yournet.com), October 05, 1999.

none- no, you are'nt going to hear any blast from an EMP attack. The bombs/warheads/satellite (3 or 4 of them) will detonate approximately 200-250 miles above the earth and would easily cover the north american continent.. kinda hard to hear something that is effectively exploding in space.

Dog gone- hmmm, good point. Planes crashing to the earth would be a pretty reliable sign.

Kritter- I know that any radio that I currently own would be fried. What kind of radio would survive such an attack?? Also, what if there is cloud cover?? Ya' gotta' realize that these explosions will be "out there" - granted it'll still be a bright flash, but I would figure it could be missed furing daylight (which does kinda go outside the parameters of my initial question.)

KOS- very good idea...I just don't own either items, nor do I want to buy any of them. A generator is Not practical for the town that I will be in. It would raise too many questions when people heard it running.

A or @ - LOL

I do wonder how our "space defense command" actually really, really KNOWS that someone didn't get a couple of satellites that really do have a 5 or 10 megaton warhead on them into orbit?? Sounds like a hard thing to check on to me...

-- Brent James Bushardt (brentj@webt.com), October 05, 1999.


There is a way to protect radios, video tapes etc from EMP. Store them in a metal box that encloses the item on all sides, ground the box and disconnect electricity, antenna inputs etc. After the event, the stuff in the box is preserved. Metal filing cabinets would also work. It may be necessary to seal the openings with metalic tape for maximum protection.

-- Larry (Larry@3stooges.gom), October 05, 1999.


Forget Maria. I would take a look outside. If it's an EMP blast, the mushroom clouds will be sure to follow.

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 05, 1999.

Well I don't know about the rest of you, but I'm gonna start lining the walls with Reynold's Wrap tomorrow.

this tin foil and eggsalad hat just ain't gonna cut it.

-- plonk! (realaddress@hotmail.com), October 05, 1999.


I think I might be watching the news channels, as I would expect that they will be broadcasting from every time zone, starting at the international dateline. That is about 17 hours prior to the time where I am. If the lights go out in Auckland, Sydney, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong..... well you get the idea, then I would guess that effects could probably be chalked up to Y2K. (I mean, if everything is going south anyway, wouldn't starting a nuclear war kind of just be 'the cherry on top', (or maybe the crushed nuts).

On the other hand, if nothing has happened around the globe, as the dateline marches on, (like this is really a possibility), then, if the lights go out here, that might be indicative of a surprise attack. Or it might just be 'Dollar' Bill playing a practical joke on us, right before the white buses, black helicopters, and national guard trucks roll. In this case, prepare for the worst.

-- John Beoddy (jbeoddy@ameritech.net), October 05, 1999.


Just for the record, a high-altitude nuclear shot (100-miles high or more) will not produce a mushroom cloud. Ordinary atmospheric convection isn't operating up there.

-- Tom Carey (tomcarey@mindspring.com), October 06, 1999.

King of Spain, you are more than worth the price of admission and no, I don't like to mud wrestle.

-- bb (bb@bb.bb), October 06, 1999.

If the power is back on in 3 days it was Y2K. If it takes 4 days, it was EMP. Another sign may be if your tinfoil hat starts to tingle, it was EMP.

Seriously, will an EMP affect solar panels, and if so how can they be protected?

-- Bill (bill@tinfoil.com), October 06, 1999.


My recollection of exo-atmospheric EMP is that it basically dislodges the outer electrons in the molecules in the upper atmosphere. (Any physicist that cares to chime in, feel free.) These free electrons then spiral in toward earth due to the electromagnetic fields, until they hit ground, get reabsorbed creating another ion, or they collect in something that conducts electricity. Like, say, the wires on a solar panel. Or a telephone line. Or a grounded file cabinet. Or a power line.

Bigger the object, more collecting it does, more charge it gets. Fiber optic lines couldn't care less, but the electronics on either end wouldn't be happy. Solid state devices (think vacuum tubes) are less susceptible than integrated circuits because they can handle higher amounts of electricity. And EMP would be the grand-daddy of all static charges.

An intentional high-altitude EMP nuke would take out almost all unprotected electronic devices simultaneously. Depending on the size of the blast, you might even get a healthy shock from your watch. Oh, and hope you're not in the tub talking on the phone.

As for protection, you'll have to do some research. Insulated (metal boxes mentioned above) works, but makes it difficult to use at the time. Operational equipment is much harder, but possible. (Air Force One, for example, is supposed to be hardened, but darned if I can figure out how you deal with that much potential charge inflight.)

Good news: it hasn't happened yet. And according to some opinions seen recently, that fact alone lowers the likelyhood of it ever happening to something approaching zero. If this ever changes, hope those said opinion-holders happen to be in the aforementioned bath at the time...

-- Harl (harlanquin@aol.hell), October 06, 1999.


Just for the record....

While am EMP blast does not itself produce a cloud, it will surely precede them. Only a matter of time....

Got prayer.....

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 06, 1999.


Could someone explain just what an EMP does to your radio, etc? Just what kinds of things will be affected by it? This idea of keeping your radio in grounded metal box.. Will that protect it for sure? How do you ground the box? Does it matter if the radio is touching the inside of the box? Is there a way to protect your computer? -Other than it being inside a big metal box. Sort of hard to use that way.

-- Shivani Arjuna (SArjuna@aol.com), October 07, 1999.

come on a why don't you answer this question from Shivani Arjuna. You know so much about EMP.

bb, why do you say contradicting statements in the same thread? This one, "I would take a look outside. If it's an EMP blast, the mushroom clouds will be sure to follow." and then this one "While am EMP blast does not itself produce a cloud, it will surely precede them. Only a matter of time...."

You guys are priceless.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), October 07, 1999.


Maria, Your brain's color has finally been exposed.....it's black and white. :-) (I'm only having fun, Maria).

My answer was rhetorical. IOW, if it is an EMP blast, it wouldn't be long before the other bombs follow evidenced by the clouds. Oh, say within an hour of an EMP blast. Get it now.......

This is like Outer Limits, Maria....Remember this,...... please do not adjust your picture. Things will remain fuzzy until we decnde to let you see.

Maria, what part of the country do you live? Do they have a football team?

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 07, 1999.


Ah! It's Maria again! The same Maria who mocks, but refuses to answer a reasonable direct question. Let's try again. I think this is the sixth time to ask... losing track here.

Maria, what would you consider to be ominous warning signs that Russia was poised to attack America?

-- Mumsie (Shezdremn@aol.com), October 07, 1999.


Maria,

When bb states "I would take a look outside. If it's an EMP blast, the mushroom clouds will be sure to follow." do you think he may be saying that a nuclear attack would surely follow the EMP blast?

And when he states "While am EMP blast does not itself produce a cloud, it will surely precede them. Only a matter of time...." could he be saying that if there were an EMP blast, it would precede a cloud caused by nuclear attack?

That's my take on it and it doesn't sound contradictive to me.

-- NokternL (nokternl@anywhereusa.com), October 07, 1999.


Here you go Mum, you seem like a hit and run to me.

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001WVC

NokternL Your interpretation sounds reasonable to me but BB didn't say it that way. It left it wide open and I think that he doesn't know the difference between EMP effects and NWE.

-- Maria (anon@ymous.com), October 07, 1999.


Maria, it's hard to get mad at you. You are just looking for something to get me on huh? Would you email me?

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 07, 1999.

Fine, fine. Here's the "THREAT POSED BY ELECTROMAGNETIC PULSE (EMP) TO U.S. MILITARY SYSTEMS AND CIVIL INFRASTRUCTURE". This was an open committee meeting for the House of Representatives, Committee on National Security, Military Research and Development Subcommittee, in Washington, DC, on Wednesday, July 16, 1997. Note that at the time, there was no current NIA on the subject. From http://commdocs.house.gov/committees/security/has197010.000/ has197010_1.HTM link

Quote from Dr. Gary Smith, the director of the Applied Physics Lab from Johns Hopkins University: "Analyses and simulated EMP testing have shown that currents carried to a facility by long overhead or buried conductors can reach thousands of amperes. Shorter penetrating conductors can carry hundreds of amperes into facilities. Direct EMP penetration through the walls and windows of an unshielded building can induce currents of tens of amperes on illuminated interior conductors."

Lemme see if I can translate this. "Looking at the effects from Starfish Prime (the nuke that disrupted Hawaii in 1962), and from computer modeling, and from actual testing of hardened systems has shown that anything attached to an outside line (cable, telephone, electric) is toast. Antennas are another good receptor. But it's really the fact that semiconductors can't take tens of amps, even if they're unplugged. And anything that conducts electricity has the potential to develop a nasty charge."

Most likely mentioned range is 10 - 50kilovolts/meter peak field strength, rise in about 10 nanoseconds. This is so much higher and faster than solar storm rad effects, it's not funny.

I'll let you go read the rest. And, if you want to Really scare yourself, substitute 'y2k' everytime you see 'EMP'. Have fun.

-- Harl (harlanquin@aol.hell), October 08, 1999.


From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

Oh, that's easy. The electricity going out on 2000-01-01 is a Y2K problem. Then there will be years of disruptions due to cascading grid failure, interdependencies, and social upheaval. After much disease and death, we'll finally manage to get our society back to some semblance of order, maybe nothing like what we have today. Then, the next time the electricity goes out... that will be EMP. =(8-0)

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 08, 1999.


"If the attack succeeds in destroying the defender with the very first nuclear volley, he will no longer be able to offer resistance to the attacker with either nuclear or conventional weapons." -- Colonel A. A. Sidorenko

"Preemption in launching a nuclear strike is considered the decisive condition for the attainment of superiority over him and the seizure and retention of the initiative." -- Colonel A. A. Sidorenko

"Not only the enemy's armed forces, but also the sources of his military power, the important economic centers, and also points of military and state control as well as the areas where different branches of armed forces are based, will be subjected to simultaneous destruction." -- Colonel M. Shirokov

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 08, 1999.


EMP

-- BB (peace2u@bellatlantic.net), October 08, 1999.

From: Y2K, ` la Carte by Dancr (pic), near Monterey, California

I have been planning to store a couple of solar panels inside my home instead of on my roof, until after the first big wave of civil unrest is over (if any). Since these would not be connected to my system, I thought it would make some sense to shield them from EMP during this same period. My plan has been to purchase two large metal garbage cans for each one, bend the cans if necessary, insert styrofoam and other foam needed to hold the panels away from touching the metal of the cans, and tape the cans together at the lip using self adhesive metal tape. From the article linked just above, though, it sounds like this might not be an adequate protection due to small holes at the seams of the cans.

I was hoping to similarly protect a laptop computer at least for just the rollover, using a set of miniature such garbage cans. Similarly, my electronic rolodex, ham radio, and a shortwave radio. If these protections won't work, what will?

-- Dancr (addy.available@my.webpage), October 09, 1999.


Moderation questions? read the FAQ