Advice re: To fly or not to fly on Dec. 31/Jan. 1?

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Hey forum faithful,

The Y2K computer problem is hitting home for me personally. My daughter, Laura, and her fiance, Chris, have asked for my counsel regarding whether to fly from L.A. to Oklahoma via commercial airline service on either December 31, 1999 or January 1, 2000. Based on my read of potential Y2K problems (possible sporadic power outages affecting ATC/airports, lack of end-to-end 'real' testing of ATC systems/embedded processors in aircraft, etc.), I have serious reservations about having them on a commercial airliner on those key dates (Jane Garvey's plans notwithstanding). Now I realize that these 'kids' are grown-ups, but it goes against everything I know about Y2K to let them fly on the last day of December or the first day of January!

Do any of you have material at your fingertips that I can pass on to Laura and Chris to help them make an informed decision about flying then? I'll probably point them to this thread so that they can get a feel for the variety of responses. Specifically, I'm looking for examples of airlines (especially domestic) that have already decided not to fly on or about the rollover (and why), 'insider' assessments or memos from firms connected with the airline industry which contain travel advisories for their employees relative to avoiding flying near the century rollover, assessments of FAA/ATC readiness, etc.? Whatever you folks have that would help my daughter and future son-in-law make an informed decision would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks in advance for your help with this!

Brian -----

-- Brian E. Smith (besmith@mail.arc.nasa.gov), October 07, 1999

Answers

Look at what we've come to. A guy from NASA asking US if it's safe to fly... :-)

Seriously, Brian, check out the transportation threads archive. Lot's of good stuff there. And for the record, IMHO, if they have to ask if it's safe, it's most likely not.

R.

-- Roland (nottelling@nowhere.com), October 07, 1999.


Roland,

My background is not flight safety so I though it would be a good idea to avail myself of the advice and detective work of the folks on this forum. There are a lot of people at NASA who work on stuff not related to airplanes (the life-on-Mars crowd, the 'rocket scientists', human factors researchers, space physiologists, etc.), so just because we work for NASA doesn't mean we know everything about the safety of commercial aircraft service at the date roll-over.

Brian

-- Brian E. Smith (besmith@mail.arc.nasa.gov), October 07, 1999.


The old adage is "Don't fly when the birds are sitting down".

But, of course the birds don't have ILS, TCAS, Weather Radar, Comms, etc. And of course, birds don't have or rely upon extensive ground based radar, ATC, ATC comms, runway lighting, lighting on top of all tall obstructions and etc.

The onboard flight management systems 'could' experience problems, possibly.

But, the greatest weakness in the scheme of flying is in failure of the ground based systems. Some of the ground based systems that 'could' hamper performance or even stop the show are: power availibilty and fluctuation problems, fueling problems, ATC problems, etc, etc or it may come down to simply being able to get airport and airline personnel staffed to a safe operational level.

Flying an aircraft safely at .80 to .90 of Mach is a combination of a lot of inherent safety features, some designed into the aircraft and learned from hard lessons and some safety features that are designed into the ground systems.

I DON'T intend to fly anywhere if IFR: 'Instrument Flight Rules', may suddenly change to IFR: 'I Follow Roads'.

I doubt that very many pilots will either.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 07, 1999.


I know some commercial airline pilots who said they do not want to fly on new years.

Also, go to www.sangersreview.com today (Thursday Oct 7) and read the Wednesday Oct 6 digest regarding which airlines will not fly, plus read sanger and shannon's comments there too. The list apparently is long.

-- (Oxsys@aol.com), October 07, 1999.


Hi Brian,

I meant to ask you. What part of Ames Research Center do you work in? Wind Tunnel? Or something deep and neat?

Just Wondering, have a nice day...from somebody in Houston.

-- no talking please (breadlines@soupkitchen.gov), October 07, 1999.



"Dodd, who is the vice chair of the Senate Special Committee on the Year 2000 Technology Problem, was joined today by Committee Chair Robert Bennett, R-Utah, in releasing the names of 1368 domestic air carriers that have failed to fill out an FAA questionnaire on Y2K readiness."

From a report dated 1999-10-05 Dodd, Bennett Move To Ground Non-Compliant Carriers

Tick... Tock... <:00=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 07, 1999.


Brian Smith

Don't know if this will help. It is the DOT aviation site. Oddly enough it has assessments of Canadian airports and not specific US ones. Personally the US site looks as if the remediation curve looks like it will take an up swing in the fall. Like everone else.

 International Civil Aviation Y2K Information Review
 

US assessment

  AERONAUTICAL INFORMATION CIRCULAR

-- Brian (imager@home.com), October 07, 1999.


Brian, if it were either of my precious daughters asking me that question, I would definitely give them all of the authoritative materials I could, particularly Dodd's recent comment that non-divulging airlines (on their Y2K preparedness) will be shut down anyway.

But the main thing I would give to them is the ancient words of wisdom of all loving parents: when in doubt, don't; discretion is the better part of valor; better safe than sorry, ad infinitum. I would suggest that there is NOWHERE one could wish to be enough to depart on either of those dates (even to a nice, safe bunker!) I would entreat them to choose Dec. 30th.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1shep@aol.com), October 07, 1999.


survey: 53 percent of technology and business executives say they would not fly on new years. www.garynorth.com newest links 10/7 "CIO's will hoard cash"

-- (Oxsys@aol.com), October 07, 1999.

Does anyone remember which govt. official said he wouldn't let his daughter fly home from college and was driving out to pick her up...and this before the rollover.

-- Shelia (Shelia@active-stream.com), October 07, 1999.


Brian (Smith),

I have known a great many men who 'drive' airplanes, and many who do so as commercial airline pilots. That latter group is, in my opinion, composed of men who, as a general rule and in fact nearly completely so, are men of intelligence and integrity, of courage and character. I have never met one who did not consider passenger safety a higher priority than the continuation of his own life. They sit 'up front' and meet whatever befalls that aircraft first.

I have no better a crystal ball than anyone else, and I love my children and life as much as any, but I need no technical fact to answer your question, and the answer is a valid for the rollover as for any other time.

If the pilot is willing and satisfied to go, I am always prepared to go with him. Though frequently a stranger, I have Faith in his judgment and integrity that is sufficient. If Fate decrees a poor outcome to the flight, I could ask to die in no better company.

-- Hardliner (searcher@internet.com), October 07, 1999.


College friend who is now a 757 pilot (Dallas-Tokyo) refuses to fly. My guess is that, at the last minute so as to avoid perception problems, flights will be cancelled anyway. Even the most optimistic people I know say they won't fly. I don't even think I'll zip my fly on 01/01/00!

-- Dave (aaa@aaa.com), October 07, 1999.

I'm with you, Dave. We'll never get to see the brave Jane Garvey board a flight on New Years Eve. They'll all be grounded.

Let some military Top Guns who can fly and land without civilian ATC make some tests that evening. Anybody who flies that evening is flying an experimental aircraft for the first test flight, as far as I'm concerned. Not gonna do it.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 07, 1999.


only in a balloon - but with so much uncongested air space

lofty T

-- lofty tone (gvidioy@hotmail.com), October 07, 1999.


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