Ed Yourdon moved out of new York City, because he believes it will be like Beirut, Lebanon! Th same goes for any large city! Move out while you can to save your life! If you stay, chances are that you'll end up dead!

-- Y2K ready (Y2kready@aol.com), October 12, 1999

Answers

Whoa! As I recall, this is based on a speech that I made some TWO years ago, in which I said that I was concerned that Y2K could create a situation in which New York City COULD be like Beirut. As for "moving out of New York City," that's not accurate -- my family still has an apartment in NYC, and I'll be celebrating the Thanksgiving holidays there.

Others -- including those who live in "any large city" -- are encouraged to make their own plans, based on their own assessment of the situation. I don't want to be held responsible for rash decisions based on Y2K-ready's emotional plea to "move out while you can still save your life". If you have any questions, email me.

Ed

-- Ed Yourdon (ed@yourdon.com), October 12, 1999.

"If you stay, chances are that you'll end up dead!"

Come on, that's exaggerating a bit, even for a GI.

My estimate is more along the lines of 10% - 30% dead in the largest cities.

-- @ (@@@.@), October 12, 1999.

@,

So @, I guess the question is...do ya feel lucky?

-- Deborah (infowars@yahoo.com), October 12, 1999.

Much progress has been made. "Move out" may be too strong at this point. A "vacation" is a better idea, IMHO. Take a couple of weeks off. Try some "country living" for a while. It is a nice way to enjoy life, and you deserve it. Get some feedback on how things are going while you're away.

Just make sure, and this is very important, that you are prepared, if TSHTF.

Visit our sister Preparation Forum

<:)=

-- Sysman (y2kboard@yahoo.com), October 12, 1999.

Ed moved out of NYC because he didn't want to be hoisting pallets of food up the sides of a high rise building with a block and tackle.

Ed, no hedging please, should people be out of NYC for the rollover? Yes or no?

My answer is yes. Of course, while trying to convince certain in- laws to leave New Jersey for a little 'vacation' in the north woods of Minnesota, it became obvious that they would actually PREFER BEIRUT to such a rural setting!

-- TrustHim (ItComes@Soon.now), October 12, 1999.

Trust Him,

Responsibility for self. I don't wish to be contentious, but your question seems like a mighty unfair one. Furthermore, doesn't it strike you as a bit presumptuous to assign Ed Yourdon his motives?

-- (IdProQuo@aol.com), October 12, 1999.

Veeeeeerrry funny Deborah, you naughty girl!! LOL!!!

Nah, I feel pretty safe where I am. I was talking about BIG cities like CHICAGO!! (gotcha!!) :-)

-- @ (@@@.@), October 12, 1999.

SYSOP or ED,

If either of you guys has delete capabilities could you please go to this thread and clean up a mess I made with the 100 largest cities?

link

Thanks!

-- @ (@@@.@), October 12, 1999.

@ . @@@@@@@@ DONE NOw, had we had a REAL address, (hotmail even) I wouldn't have had to waste the post space. [THWAP] one to the wrists!

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), October 12, 1999.

IdProQuo,

The assignment of motives is a bit of a joke, something that a pollyanna once wrote about at the Westergaard site.

As for the question being unfair - I certainly do not wish to be unfair. We live in this relativistic age where everyone is 'supposed' to couch their answers in proper lingo, e.g. "if it's right for you". However, I believe that at some point and on some issues, you just have to stick your neck out and give actual advice. People may not follow that advice, but at least they know where you stand.

I will tell you, flat out, do not play Russian Roulette. "Click" Oh, nothing happened? I guess I was wrong. Was I? Of course not.

Here, look how easy this is: You should not be in a major city at the rollover.

Roughly 80 days from now the trigger gets pulled.

-- TrustHim (ItComes@Soon.now), October 12, 1999.

Thanks Chuck! I saw that it was done, sorry about the space. Now you can delete these if you like. (and don't let me know!)

-- @ (@@@.@), October 12, 1999.

>>The assignment of motives is a bit of a joke, something that a pollyanna once wrote about at the Westergaard site.<<

Well, first things first: I'm laughably far from being a polly. But I'm always up for a good joke. Unfortunately, I missed that particular joke on the Westergaard site.

I just regard it as "over the line" to assign either friends or enemies their intentions or motives. (By the way, somebody highly esteemed in world history considered the assignation of motives a form of violence. Now, that's not exactly the way *I* would put it, but basically I tend to agree.)

>>However, I believe that at some point and on some issues, you just have to stick your neck out and give actual advice. People may not follow that advice, but at least they know where you stand.<<

Well, we see things differently. Somebody gives advice, oh, like say, the government and their 3-day prep advice, then they might find they are quietly and morally insinuated into a position of responsibility for that advice. Do you disagree?

Hasn't Yourdon given quite a bit by providing us with facts and analysis over the years?

>>Here, look how easy this is: You should not be in a major city at the rollover.<<

Really? If you knew my responsibilities and circumstances, you *might* not say that quite so easily. It might be far more life-threatening for me to be out of Los Angeles for a very serious reason. Are you sure you can make that statement that categorically? I know you are kindly trying to warn people, but it might not apply to many.

>>Roughly 80 days from now the trigger gets pulled.<<

In which case, allow me to tell you now, while I have the chance, that I prefer sunflowers to lilies.

-- (IdProQuo@aol.com), October 12, 1999.

If the Santa Anna winds are blowing during a Y2K black out, Los Angeles is going to become a giant sized crematorium.

-- Whoosh (down@the.tubes), October 12, 1999.

I will be out of Houston before Christmas. I hope I can come back sometime in January. No way do I risk my family's safety in a petrochemical tenderbox at rollover.

-- Dog Gone (layinglow@rollover.now), October 12, 1999.

Ed,

Isn't it amazing how your words can come back to haunt you? Many people reading your book today don't realise it was written a few years ago. How many people have made uwise decisions based on that one little comment about Beirut? I've seen TV and newspaper stories really jump on that comment too.

-- (Backspace@keyboard.com), October 12, 1999.

GEEZ FOLKS LIGHTEN UP !!!!!!

Ed Yourdon is a real person. Not an unfeeling, uncaring person. He has made some calls and shared them. I trust him when he says he hasn't profited extensively by doing so. Hey, EVERYONE is responsible for themselves. Anyone making any decisions based on one statement or one book or one person is ..... well..... a fool. Isn't anyone responsible for themselves anymore? I mean come on folks.

-- Norm (Prez22@aol.com), October 12, 1999.

The "get out of the cities" thing has been done and done, (at least 18 months here).

And a word about the potential future historical look at the decade 1990s...I wonder if future historians will be able to honestly name it the "Safety Decade", and if analysis will show that the culture's pathological obsession with 'safety' contributed to 'why things are like they are'? Safety is an relative illusion, Lovelies.

Make an assessment of the area in which you live. Make a decision. Take a stand. Assess. Choose. Take a stand.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 12, 1999.

Just wonderering, just now, what a long time resident of Beirut would say about survivability? Tips from Beirut....

Ed,...got to thinking about the double-edge sword for folks, like you, who get their thoughts, their words out there,...a Joni Mitchell lyric came to mind - sincerely commiserating:

"oh the power and the glory, just when you're gettin' the taste for worship they start bringin' out the hammers, and the boards, and the nails,..." ;-)

Think. Assess. Choose. Take a stand. Be prepared to think again, assess again, choose again, and take ANOTHER stand. (Lyrics from the soon to be released "Critical Thinking Rag")

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 12, 1999.

Common sense would dictate that Winter Holidays 1999 --> 2000 would be better spent OUT of NYC.

Your own brain can tell you that ;^)

I used to spend summers as a little kid in NYC visiting some really peculiar relatives. Seemed like Beirut then. Queens, 81st Street; Manhattan; Otis, Mass. My brother & I would ride the subway all morning on one fare :-) and then spend the afternoons on Coney (sp?) Island. Never gone back since, never will.

All those people, no electricity, winter, rage, and where terrorism strikes are certainly believable.

Ed, so glad you have a bug-out paradise far far away!

-- Leska (allaha@earthlink.net), October 12, 1999.

Maybe I'm reading more into some of the above posts than is really there. However, there seems to be a sort of attitude that it's no longer considered stylish to entertain thoughts of re-locating away from densely populated areas (that have maximum dependency on municipal services such as water and sewage) to sparsely populated areas (without such dependence, and with feasible self-sufficiency). Certainly, everyone has to assess the risks for themselves, but I offer the following two thoughts to perhaps help:

1) Nothing that I know of in the past two years has in any way, shape or form diminished the risks of Y2K impact to urban areas. In fact, the projected failures of cities such as Washington, D.C. are at this point very much a given.

2) Whether its 1997 or 1999 or 2000, the fact is: Bad computer code does not care, it will do what it has been programmed to do. The fact that it is now probably too late to re-locate except under the most drastic of circumstances changes nothing. (Though, of course, if you have the opportunity to take an extended "vacation" at a rural retreat near the end of the year, that is certainly an option worth considering.)

80 days.

Y2K CANNOT BE FIXED!

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 12, 1999.

I'm not at all indicating it is not 'stylish' to consider moving from large congested cities. Blanket bug-out statements bother me,...and the "love the smell of burnt toast in the morning" mantra recited incessantly to people who are feeling fearful and confused is counterproductive. As the years roll by here on the Big Blue Marble it becomes increasingly more important to have some basic understanding of how human beings react/respond to stress. Part of the plan for human evolution/personal growth needs to include fewer 'middle ages' approaches to problem-solving. Crying burnt toast!!, in my never to be humble opinion, is a part of the problem, NOT a part of the solution.

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 12, 1999.

Think. Assess. Choose. Take a stand. Be prepared to think again, assess again, choose again, and take ANOTHER stand. (Lyrics from the soon to be released "Critical Thinking Rag")

-- Donna (moment@pacbell.net), October 12, 1999.

Donna,

I love it!!! can I be your arranger?

[left Vegas in '73; not a minute too early...]

Perry

-- Perry Arnett (pjarnett@pdqnet.net), October 12, 1999.

Halfway through the L.A. Riots I was flying back in to LAX. There is nothing quite like the sight of 4,000 fires and their columns of rising black smoke as seen from the air.

On the ground, heading South on the 405 freeway, there where *many* troop carriers coming up from San Diego. I will always remember that sight. (And all the infrastructure was still working then).

You could NOT pay me to be in L.A.... or N.Y.C. for that matter... during the turn.

Diane

-- Diane J. Squire (sacredspaces@yahoo.com), October 12, 1999.

So I take it this letter is fabricated:

http://www.sightings.c om/ufo/y2kyour.htm

Frankly, I couldn't care less whether your computer veterans agree or disagree with my views on Y2K; my daughter and I wrote our "Time Bomb 2000" book to articulate personal Y2K contingency plans for our family, our friends, and other personal acquaintances. If Y2K does turn out to be as bad as I think it will be, nobody is going to care abut the opinions of software professionals on 1/1/2000 (other than possibly lynching them for having created the problem in the first place!); instead, everyone is going to be concentrating on how to get food, shelter, clothing, and the basic necessities of life. Y2K threatens all of this, except in the backwards economies that have never depended on automation or socio-economic interactions with other automated societies. Rural China will probably be okay; but in my humble opinion, New York, Chicago, Atlanta and a dozen other cities are going to resemble Beirut in January 2000. That's why I've moved out of NYC to rural New Mexico a couple months ago.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), October 12, 1999.

Ed, Ed, Ed, What's the deal? Like Jesse the Body Ventura says, "It always pays to tell the truth. Then you don't have to have a good memory." No denying, Hoff can't be lying.

Hey Hoff, did you get Ed's permission to post that here. hahahaha

-- (SpaceBar@keyboard.com), October 12, 1999.

tsk tsk

-- (aaaa@@.com), October 12, 1999.

Hoffmeister,

Are you angry? What is the deal here? I guess you are concerned for those that might be duped. Feeling sorry for those that can't make decisions on their own? Do you feel the pain of the guy who has sold investments to buy gold? Feeling sorry for the guy who is going to be blown up because he stored 100 gallons of gas in his backyard? Is your heart torn for all of the poor doomers that won't have a grocery bill next year come what may?

Seriously, I would like to know why you are upset with "doomers" or whatever you might call those expecting a problem. I am fairly new here and would like to know.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), October 12, 1999.

Why

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), October 12, 1999.

Let me see, here. Ed Yourdon apparently moved from NYC to New Mexico. However, he has family still in NYC, so the Yourdon family per se still has residence there, which Ed will be visiting over a month in advance of Jan 1.

Hoffy, this is hardly the stuff that controversies are made of, there is nothing here that smacks of the kind of underhandedness of, say, the FAA. Or Coca Cola.

Gosh, all of you pollies are so doggone HYPER today. USA TODAY stories? Y2K compliant "reversal" articles?? Stock market jitters??? WHAT????!!!!??

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 12, 1999.

King of Spew,

You moron. Ed acted if that was some obscure statement he gave during a speech and denied getting out of NYC because of Y2K. Go read what Ed wrote you idiot.

Then read the letter Ed wrote which Hoff posted.

-- (spacebar@keyboard.com), October 13, 1999.

Hey Hoffmeister,

Thanks for the WHY response. My question was why are you so upset with "doomers". In your answer the only thing that would indicate why you might be angry is that your brother got some doomer material and freaked out which apparently caused you to get urologically upset.

I do not see that as any reason to be as upset as you are.

Let me tell you a bit here from this "semi-doomer" where I am coming from. I first was educated about the Y2K problem by a news story in about 2/1998 that told of an airline in SE Asia that wouldn't be flying on 01/01/2000 because of the Y2K problem. Now that blew my mind. I started looking into the deal. In my over one and half years of personal investigation I haven't purchased any books, videos, or other materials from anyone to find out about Y2K, do to the fact that I didn't want to possibly be manipulated by anyone who would stand to gain from hyping the problem. I have not been a Y2K Guru follower. Heck, I just found this place a few weeks ago. I have followed alot of government testimony, news items(some verified by phone do to my distrust), commentary from a few folks I trust, Ed Yardeni, various surveys etc. I have been to Washington D.C. twice for Senate Hearings, 1st on food, and 2nd on Community Preparedness. None of these are sources of people who stand to gain from Y2K except maybe Dr. Yardeni who will be held in higher esteem if he is right.

The only thing I really know about Gary North is that he is fairly sarcastic at times and that he is a major Doomer. I have been to his sight but have not followed any of his BB's, just looked around a couple of times.

I have read alot (on the web - no purchases) by Ed Yourdon by this time but that has only been recently (really since May) and nothing has increased my concern about Y2K. My favorite writing by Mr. Yourdon is this one here:

http://www.yourdon.com/journal/960901.html

That one endeared me to the man. I loved the story.

The CIA and U.S. Post Office testimony's in February are some of the more telling about the Y2K problem. There are many others I won't go into but I really became a GOT IT when Senator Dodd said rather emphatically, "Y2K is no joke." Making every attempt not to read something that isn't there with those Senators on the Y2K Committee, I came to the conclusion by listening to them, watching them, that they are a tad to the right of pretty darned concerned. That includes Ted Stephens, Bob Bennett, and Chris Dodd (and Richard Lugar testifying at the Food hearing). I was sealed as a GOT IT when Senator Bennett said, "Take care of your own Y2K situation" adding something to the effect of don't depend on the U.S. government to help you.

So Mr. Hoffmeister, I have seen, heard and read way too much to change my mind now. In my humble opinion, Y2K will be a big bump in the road but I don't think the U.S. or world as we know it will end. ("they" have that all planned out, whoever "they" are.) I dont have much education but my common sense tells me that preparation (to one's means) is prudent.

Thank you for your input. I think all polly's should be welcomed here myself, but I just don't understand coming here and railing and blasting folks and being just out and out angry. Make your points with zeal but angry attacks don't look so good.

P.S. I think you should tell your brother to buy some food, store some water, and hold a bit of cash.... just in case.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), October 13, 1999.

Virginian

I'm not angry with doomers. People have the responsibility to make their own decisions; whatever they may be, I'm in no position to judge. I don't degrade or even comment in any way on what individuals decide to do, save once about a year ago in one of my first "flame wars" on c.s.y2k.

So I think you misrepresent me somewhat. I do get angry with those whose purpose is to spread FUD regarding Y2k. Some have much more transparent agendas than others. In many areas, I'm no better off in my ability to assess areas of risk than anybody else. For example, I look at Dick Mills, who spent enormous amounts of time debunking various myths about electric utilities that had been propagated around the internet. And I'll eternally be in his debt for providing that information.

I attempt to do that in a much smaller way. I especially get angry when supposed experts in IT use their knowledge, or their position as an "expert", to increase the FUD. Whether or not the exact outcome can be predicted, I, at least, feel that knowledge and information should be used to decrease the uncertainty, where possible, instead of the opposite.

Some seem to feel this unnecessary. That the desired "end", whatever that may be, justifies the "means". That pointing out obvious and not so obvious misinformation is somehow wrong. Sorry, just don't buy it.

-- Hoffmeister (hoff_meister@my-deja.com), October 13, 1999.

Hoffmeister,

Ok, so I was wrong in my interpretation of your posts as having been wrought with anger, for that I do apologize. There is nothing wrong with debates that get a little fiesty.

-- the Virginian (1@1.com), October 13, 1999.