Okay, I'm going out on a limb here, so watch it get sawed off. Murphy's law usually applies to me when I do this sort of thing, so keep in mind these are the ramblings of a retired commodities trader who somehow evaded the padded cells.

The technical analysis for the following markets is based upon technical oscillator mechanisms and the patterns showing on price-bar charts on a daily and weekly charts basis.

Stocks are poised for a further sell-off for the next few days. I forgot where...someone might want to link to it, but on an earlier thread I gave the market drop numbers...for the next few days... but probably between around 200 to 500 points off on the DJIA. By Tue afternoon you should likely see a small bounce back in the market and probably choppy trading for awhile, then the drops should resume. Overall from markets old highs...the market should pull back 1/3 or maybe 1/2 (even possibly 2/3rds) but I suspect it won't happen all in a week or two... it will be a slow, halting, stairstep approach.

GOLD: Thursday or Friday should finally be the day the Goldbugs can re-start their celebrations...but don't overdo it cause the market sure won't overdo it anytime soon. But I expect Gold will try and test $330 on Thursday IF, IF the overnight market can get and keep the price of Gold (basis Dec.'99 contracts) at $324.00 or higher by the time the COMEX is ready to open...IF so, then they'll likely make a daytime run to $330 or make the attempt. They might succeed on Thur, but more likely close up about $3.00 to $4.00 higher which positions it closer to the goal of cracking over $330 level. I expect it to retry that on Friday and will probably crack back over $330. IF so, then next week could see a retest of $340 also. Gold is still longterm bullish and short term bullish but not like it was. If on Thursday the market drops out of the previous trading range below $320 then the market will likely test $300 before it tries to run again to $330.

CRUDE Oil... Looking better prematurely due to Pakistan's coup which rattled the Persian Gulf politicals. Crude was prematurely cut off from doing the 1/3 retracement by virtue of the fundamental news about Pakistan. Look for a test really soon of the $25.00 a bbl price and probably Thur or Fri, no latter than Monday for sure otherwise the resumption of the retracement will occur, testing down towards the $20.00 mark where support is strong.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999

Answers

What is the new era thinking on panic for our new economy. If the Dow breaks below 10,000 wouldn't that be breaking a pychological barrier to Dow 10,000. Which in itself would lead to a greater panic. Which in itself would lead to an increase faster in the POG. What about silver? When do you think silver will make a move? Do you think we will see a return to the price in PM's that we saw in 1980.?? Then if the Dow crashes what do you think will happen to the yen exchange rate. I have little information on this as I live in Japan and many people after being wipped out in 1990 have informed me to stay away from stocks and option etc. I guess this is why we Japanese are satisfied with the 0.015% annual interest that is paid on our postal savings accounts. However, since I have never experienced a crash, unlike my father, I am not afraid of it like he is.

I always enjoy your posts and your wiseness

Geosuke

-- Geosuke (Geosuke@japan.com), October 14, 1999.

Geosuke,

Howdy to you in Japan, is it? I am and I think all of us here are honored that you would visit and post here. Maybe you could tell us your assessment of Y2K preps over in your area. But for now on to your questions. Keep in mind, that I could really be wrong on any and everything that I write, but I'll be pleased to tell you what I think and suspect anyway since you asked.

Q: "What is the new era thinking on panic for our new economy"

A: I don't know. I'm wondering if everyone isn't being hypnotized by the TV and the internet into a "Wizard of Oz" kind of attitude. So that we "pay no attention to the man behind the curtain." I think the only things that might panic this market are sudden, unforeseen things like wars, assassinations or major natural events (storms, earthquakes, etc)or Y2K shutdowns.

Q: If the Dow breaks below 10,000 wouldn't that be breaking a pychological barrier to Dow 10,000. Which in itself would lead to a greater panic. Which in itself would lead to an increase faster in the POG.

Answer: That would be a logical assumption BUT things have become very illogical lately. Remember, the market breezed through 10,000 on the way up. Generally when you breeze through a price point going up you breeze through it going back down. Yes, there is some resistance and support at 10,000 but I don't think it is THE big psychological scary number in a market decline, like we once might have suspected. Per centage losses in a day over a period of days will have more of an impact. From current levels, a drop to 10,000 is no longer that big of a percentage drop. In considering the price of gold as it relates to stocks...well it used to do that. Not anymore. Gold and stocks have been disconnected from one another for at least 12 years. Remember the Crash of 1987? Gold didn't really react opposite the gold market. Oh, it did initially, a little bit, but not much. To me, that was a tell-tale sign that something was fundamentally wrong with the gold market. I suspected "tampering" by the Feds or somebody. I still do. That is why I don't think the current "Gold Crisis" involving the "shortage of gold" is going to really make any difference. I suspect, (I have no proof--just a gut hunch) that the gold crisis is over. It was sparked by a few "mavericks" like a George Soros who wanted to take possession of massive quantities of gold to force the issue. Well, the governments make the rules and they can change the rules at any time, particularly with gold, to make the rules conform to their goals and not that of an investor. I imagine these fellows have told these "buyers who bought massive gold contracts in the COMEX -- and theres only a few -- I'll bet they've been told to stop forcing the issue or they'll launch criminal investigations like they did against the Hunt brothers in 1980 when the Hunts tried to corner the silver market. So, they made the veiled threat, and these fellows paid attention to the warnings and have now backed down. I'm sure there was some sort of compensation to sweeten the deal a bit. But don't expect a falling stock market to push up gold prices. It hasn't been happening much in the last 12 years. I doubt that a stock drop will therefore stampede the stock investors to the precious metals.

Q: "What about silver? When do you think silver will make a move?"

A: Silver will run with gold but behind it. It will lag gold for awhile anyway for this year. If it moves out ahead of gold and starts taking advantage of low prices that will trigger its independence from gold, but not until then. I see a possible $1.00 or $1.50 rise in silver as being a "possibility" between now and the New Year but I wouldn't count on it.

Q: Do you think we will see a return to the price in PM's that we saw in 1980.??

A: Not this year. It might after Y2k hits hard (assuming it does).

Q: Then if the Dow crashes what do you think will happen to the yen exchange rate.

A; I think the dollar will go down and the Yen upwards.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

I disagree. Stock market will be up today.

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), October 14, 1999.

Dow Guy,

You can't wish it away. I know your part of the sheeple herd but your getting ready to be sheared. So come along little sheeple. Come to daddy. Now bend over hear it comes. You'll be OK, I'm here to protect you.

-- Baaaaaaaa (Relax@dowguy.hereitcomes), October 14, 1999.

Baaaaaaaa,

Did you forget to take your valium today? ?

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), October 14, 1999.

Mr. Moody,

Thank you for going on the a limb. I have enjoyed reading your thoughts here. Don't stop.

Geosuke,

I caught a couple of minutes of yesterday's testimony to the Senate's Special Committee and was surprised to hear that telecommunications in Japan was considered at risk. Is this being discussed in Japanese newspapers?

Sincerely,
Stan Faryna

For the spot price of gold:
http://mrci.com/qpnight.htm
http://www.kitco.com/gold. graph.html

For the spot price of silver:
http://www.kitco.com/sil ver.graph.html

For the spot price of platinum:
http://www.kitco.com/p latinum.graph.html

For U.S. Markets and stock quotes:
http://finance.yahoo.com/?u

For Major World Indices:
http://finance.yahoo.com/m2?u

...

Got 14 days of preps? If not, get started now. Click here.

Click here and check out the TB2000 preparation forum.

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 14, 1999.

Dick,

A quick note to say thanks for your posts. Although I'm not a big on technical analysis, I do enjoy your insights.

With all respect to Geosuke-san, the last place that I would want to spend the rollover would be Japan. I spent three years there in the early 90s, and the combination of questionable disaster-response capabilities, Mother Nature's penchant for reminding us that Murphy really was an optimist (how long overdue did you say the great Kanto 'quake was?), and Nippon's dependence on imports would scare me stiff.

FYI, I'm writing from Hong Kong, and don't plan on being here for the rollover.

Good luck with your preps,

Avalon

-- Avalon (cdillon@hk.super.net), October 14, 1999.

Hey Mr. Moody !

How's the limb you are hanging on? I think your oscillator turned into a vibrator. hehehehe

-- (DowGuy@wallstreet.com), October 14, 1999.

As a spread trading fundamentalist that wants to concur with Dick's technical attraction to the crude sector, this market is ripe. Everyone has been expecting a Fall price pullback. It hit with a vengeance last week. Down from +$25 to $21/ barrel in a few sessions. Since then its the inception of a nice rally. If this Nov contract fills the gap down to $22.35 I'm pulling the trigger on a few more bullspreads (long nearbys, short late 2000 contracts). API crude stock stats dropped another 7 million barrels this week. With refiners bumping up runs in anticipation of year end hoarding and possible rollover probs, we're heading for record low crude stocks by the end of the year. Watch someone squeeze the Dec as it goes off the board (Nov 19th). Get positioned now.

Relative to the stock market and/or gold, the crude market is a more predictable y2k play, especially since its Fall market washout is already in. And, unlike gold or stock indexes, its easier to identify specific and tangible rollover probs in the oil sector.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 14, 1999.

and DowGuy, we'll see how much you're crowing about your Dow index when crude oil breeches $30 / barrel....

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), October 14, 1999.

Downstreamer,

On Crude... Crude needs to do something upside within the next 3 days or I suspect she'll resume retracement or just go into a strong and cchoppy sideways trading range. Crude needs to run a test to $25.00 IMO in the next 3 days or else probably languish for a few weeks locked between 20-25 dollars. I was really surprised the mkt didn't move up today. Perhaps there's less buying sentiment out there right now than we've gauged for. If so, I think its very shortsighted.

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.

Dow Guy,

How's the limb you are hanging on? I think your oscillator turned into a vibrator. hehehehe

Well now, whaddaya think? Are you deaf or something? Don't you hear it cracking??? Let this be a lesson to you. This is not a game for untrained amateurs. You've got to be a really big fool and well trained to do this! Are you qualified? If not then don't try this at home. Chances are your homeowners insurance won't cover you.

Actually, critical short term timing was never my strength. Trying to pinpoint day trading takes finely tuned instincts, of which mine are somewhat rusty and I've not the quality of e-tools to use that I once had. Just the same, the market technicals are no different than they were, just delayed. I didn't watch the markets today but I have reviewed the intraday charting and Stocks were down 100 and up 100. Rather choppy. Doesn't change a thing. I've been saying for sometime that the DJIA is more likely to tumble in the last half of October. Right now the DJIA is technically, hanging by a thread and is still in a the grips of a major 6 month (minimum) downtrend with only brief bounce uptrends within the overall downtrend. Right now, you're in the middle of one of those bounces albeit a very small bounce. Look for resumptions to the downside soon.

To Avalon. Thanks and hey... I don't blame you about getting out of "Dodge." I think the Clantons may be getting ready for a shootout at high midnite on 12/31/99. Where's Marshall Dillon when you need him?

-- Dick Moody (dickmoody@yahoo.com), October 14, 1999.