Greetings to the forum,

Having been a lurker for the past few years, all this talk of gold has prompted me to post. The following is my opinion expressed simply because I felt that the "bearish" viewpoint for gold is almost non existent. Everyone has an opinion, (I got mine at the door on the way in to this forum). Being a staunch contrarian, I believe the price of gold has not seen it's lows. While the past few weeks have given more adrenaline rush for gold's price than the past 12 years combined, gold never does what you think it should. The reasons to own are obvious. World chaos, uncertain times, questions of integrity about the worlds financial system. All valid points and extremely possible to happen.

but...

What will drive the prices up are in my opinion not as strong as what will pull them down.

1. To the people asking how to buy gold I pose these questions. Have you ever seen gold? Have you held it? Do you evaluate it's worth in dollars? Why? Am I to believe we'll all throw away our currency (after 220+ years) and give the barber a piece of gold for a haircut, or a chunk of a 1oz. eagle for a bag of chickens? I don't think people will be adaptable in going from a currency based economy (where the money is made to spend easily) to one that is so unrefined and difficult to use.

2. For gold to go to the extent being espoused, the US government would have to let go. Hasn't happened yet (even with the civil war). Not likely to happen. Aside from all the involvement our government has in our lives, (education, health, food, transportation, retirement, etc.) the government is intent on remaining in existence. Benevolant, yet ready to eliminate any threat to it's assured continuance.

3. DEFLATION Gold soars in dollar value because of a whole lot of Dollars in circulation. If that were true, and things are great, and we're all rich and have the best lifestyle the world has ever known Where's all the money? In your mattress? The bank? The Mutual fund? Everyone I know seems to be doing alright but it seems that money (cash) is elusive) Our wealth is built on debt. The reality is The world has already had their deflationary contraction, and now it's our turn. Commodities (corn, wheat, sugar, coffee, etc.) are at multi decade lows. Real-estate in some sectors has plummeted (Hawai and Mid America farm land.) Doubt lower prices except for some items? check out Walmart, or Macdonalds, etc., prices continue to fall, not rise. And, people just keep pulling out their credit cards and buying more junk. Debt, Deflation and unemployment suck the cash right out of the system . If you can hang on to cash, to the bottom most everything is real cheap (to few dollars chasing to many goods).

3. When did gold bottom? I know when it's low was last summer, but where was the fear? the "blood in the streets" mighty sell-off that typically signals a final end to a "cycle" Gold has been going down for 20 years. It is a market that is saturated with adrenaline and emotional rushes. For it to just drift and then shoot up into a new bull market is unlikely, the "fear" hasn't been fully injected into the collective psychology. When "gold" is certain that there is no one left to sell then it starts it's climb again. Granted, the slightest movement creates instant excitement (look at all the posts here in the past few weeks), but more than anticipation is needed for a continued climb. Do you honestly belive that with all the confusion and chaos of y2k, that we're all gonna learn a whole new system of money on top of everything else? Better to have bic lighters or toothbrushes or toilet paper if your thinking of "money" Any one that has a need will recognise and establish in there mind a perceived value of your item for trade.

I think gold will soar. Just not now. After y2k has brought everything to a grinding halt, and after all the governments figure that they will print and print in order to throw money at the problems of the world, and availability of items is much less than the amount of currency in our pockets (to many dollars chasing to few goods), will gold take off for the atmosphere. In the mean time,

count me on the short side of the market.

-- Lou (knowzone@kudos.net), October 17, 1999

Answers

Thanks for the good post Lou. Too much of what we do is based upon adrenaline and feelings, not on fact and reason. I hope many read your post.

-- rcwhite (cw5410@netscape.net), October 17, 1999.

You know Lou,

It is a real shame that after all of the analysis and reporting and effort that people i.e. andy,Moody, has put into What is happening with gold, right down to updating this forum about the Boe dumping it in June and what their reasoning was.

Let me get to the bottom line here. Your post is an insult to all of the incredible information that has been posted here about gold. Be glad its a slow Sunday Nite.

-- Dave Butts (dciinc@aol.com), October 17, 1999.

Lou, I'm certainly not any kind of authority, but the fact is that we have had a lot of points made recently by Andy & Co., often citing pretty high-brow stuff from the gold-eagle site. You basically ignore all of it, merely claiming that the points you raise outweigh their's.

I think that it is fair to say that just within the past two months we have had some very MAJOR events take place that are real significant for the price of gold to go up. The announcement by the European central banks that they will no longer be selling gold; the surge of support for the (partially gold backed) Euro currency; the recent rise in the price of gold, and its effect of suddenly catching a lot of gold carry schemers (including banks) with their shorts down; a stock market that has a lot of people worried. Two months ahead of us we have Y2K, and people getting nervous about that. Nothing like this "convergence" of events has ever happened before, and all of it seems to support the idea that gold and silver will become very desirable REAL SOON.

Still, you may be completely right, who knows....

-- King of Spain (madrid@aol.cum), October 17, 1999.

Greetings to the forum, Having been a lurker for the past few years, all this talk of gold has prompted me to post. The following is my opinion expressed simply because I felt that the "bearish" viewpoint for gold is almost non existent. Everyone has an opinion, (I got mine at the door on the way in to this forum). Being a staunch contrarian, I believe the price of gold has not seen it's lows. While the past few weeks have given more adrenaline rush for gold's price than the past 12 years combined, gold never does what you think it should. The reasons to own are obvious. World chaos, uncertain times, questions of integrity about the worlds financial system. All valid points and extremely possible to happen.

but...

What will drive the prices up are in my opinion not as strong as what will pull them down.

1. To the people asking how to buy gold I pose these questions. Have you ever seen gold? Have you held it? Do you evaluate it's worth in dollars? Why? Am I to believe we'll all throw away our currency (after 220+ years) and give the barber a piece of gold for a haircut, or a chunk of a 1oz. eagle for a bag of chickens? I don't think people will be adaptable in going from a currency based economy (where the money is made to spend easily) to one that is so unrefined and difficult to use.

####### you are thinking in American terms. We are 280m out of 6 Billion. Ask your question to the Arabs, Indians, Asians, South Africans, Japanese, Chinese... Look at the big picture here... #######

2. For gold to go to the extent being espoused, the US government would have to let go. Hasn't happened yet (even with the civil war). Not likely to happen. Aside from all the involvement our government has in our lives, (education, health, food, transportation, retirement, etc.) the government is intent on remaining in existence. Benevolant, yet ready to eliminate any threat to it's assured continuance.

####### They (the USA) have already capitulated - re-read Greenspan's speeches. A deal has been made. Next year all gold and oil will be priced in Euro's... have yoy ANY idea of the debt burden of the USA? Any IDEA of the rate of savings of Americans? You know even now you can get 125% mortgages, refinance at mega-low rates, order up 10 credit cards with 10K on each...

Get real Lou - the USA is bankrupt and has been for many years... #######

3. DEFLATION Gold soars in dollar value because of a whole lot of Dollars in circulation. If that were true, and things are great, and we're all rich and have the best lifestyle the world has ever known Where's all the money? In your mattress? The bank? The Mutual fund? Everyone I know seems to be doing alright but it seems that money (cash) is elusive) Our wealth is built on debt. The reality is The world has already had their deflationary contraction, and now it's our turn. Commodities (corn, wheat, sugar, coffee, etc.) are at multi decade lows. Real-estate in some sectors has plummeted (Hawai and Mid America farm land.) Doubt lower prices except for some items? check out Walmart, or Macdonalds, etc., prices continue to fall, not rise. And, people just keep pulling out their credit cards and buying more junk. Debt, Deflation and unemployment suck the cash right out of the system . If you can hang on to cash, to the bottom most everything is real cheap (to few dollars chasing to many goods).

###### Oops :) You DO have an idea... sorry... #######

3. When did gold bottom? I know when it's low was last summer, but where was the fear? the "blood in the streets" mighty sell-off that typically signals a final end to a "cycle" Gold has been going down for 20 years. It is a market that is saturated with adrenaline and emotional rushes. For it to just drift and then shoot up into a new bull market is unlikely, the "fear" hasn't been fully injected into the collective psychology. When "gold" is certain that there is no one left to sell then it starts it's climb again. Granted, the slightest movement creates instant excitement (look at all the posts here in the past few weeks), but more than anticipation is needed for a continued climb. Do you honestly belive that with all the confusion and chaos of y2k, that we're all gonna learn a whole new system of money on top of everything else? Better to have bic lighters or toothbrushes or toilet paper if your thinking of "money" Any one that has a need will recognise and establish in there mind a perceived value of your item for trade.

####### Do your homework Lou. The payoff in gold may not be for a few years yet. I believe there will be a big payoff before y2k, but nothing compared to later. #######

I think gold will soar. Just not now. After y2k has brought everything to a grinding halt, and after all the governments figure that they will print and print in order to throw money at the problems of the world, and availability of items is much less than the amount of currency in our pockets (to many dollars chasing to few goods), will gold take off for the atmosphere. In the mean time,

####### Lou. You are not thinking straight. When it soars it will be like a thief in the night. Unless you have your stash you have missed the train my friend. I am sacrificing short term gains now that I could make with my paper money in order to buy physical gold cheap now because when the explosion happens, if I don't have my trove, I will live to rue the day. That's the fundamental difference, you are going for the quick buck now, I am going for the bargain of my lifetime.

Cash is indeed king, but Gold is better!

Luck to 'ya #######

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Andy,

He might just work for Goldman Sucks. Another disimformation putz. These con artists on the short side are loosing billions if they don't stop this explosion in gold. I'm sure they have many people on the payroll right now doing just what this first time poster, long time lurker is doing.

-- This guy? (Whataputz@spam.com), October 17, 1999.

Thanks wtputz, but if so I think my counter rebuttals will have convinced the majority.

G Sucks and Co. are GOING DOWN BIG TIME

OH YES!!!

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Andy

please post...where oil and gold will be in euro. What is you're scenario inflationary depression or deflationary depression.After TSHTF then what describe what will happen.1-1-2000 to 1-1-2002.

-- friend (e@h.l), October 17, 1999.

my friend,

read this link... g'luck

http://www.greenspun.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg.tcl?msg_id=001azV

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 17, 1999.

Lou, Like yourself I lurk, but rarely post here. I tend to disagree with much of what you said, but your post did strike me as an intelligent observation and well worth reading. In essence, what we are all imperfectly doing in this forum is attempting to predict the future. To this end, I believe that ALL intelligent discourse is worth consideration. Thank you for your contrarian view.

Good luck

Doc

-- T.H. "Doc" Toups (ttoups@aol.com), October 17, 1999.

"Am I to believe we'll all throw away our currency (after 220+ years)..."

Hmm, I coulda swore we already did that several decades ago.

-- Ron Schwarz (rs@clubvb.com.delete.this), October 17, 1999.

Am I to believe we'll all throw away our currency (after 220+ years) and give the barber a piece of gold for a haircut, or a chunk of a 1oz. eagle for a bag of chickens? I don't think people will be adaptable in going from a currency based economy (where the money is made to spend easily) to one that is so unrefined and difficult to use.

You're wrong...history will repeat itself to show that what is truly an instrument of value worldwide, will come back with a vengeance. Also, remember that US coin, up until 2 decades ago was made of valuable metals. You certainly don't complain about how the real stuff was so much heavier than the new stuff, do you???? Remember that we ushered in paper money as a means to more easily trade what is of real value. Don't put the cart before the horse. You folks who believe a paper product backed by only the promise to pay outweighs a paper product backed by a redeemable value in gold are the ones who have been hoodwinked.

Yeah, the government would have to let go...of the stranglehold it has on anyone who continues to accept it as a valid form of payment. What does that mean? A whole lot of pain for anyone who still has a lot of it and continues to call it savings. What does it mean to let go? It means that what takes it's place will have true universal value that cannot be thwarted through dishonesty and subversion.

Granted, the slightest movement creates instant excitement

Excuse me? Boy oh boy...calling the recent movements AND the largest movement in the history of gold in any single day 'a slightest movement' tells me you really and truly do not know what you are talking about, and for you to suggest the "fear" hasn't been fully injected into the collective psychology solidifies the point that you are equating gold with other markets, which will prove you totally and completely off base. There isn't any common fear about the gold market as it relates to the public. Why? Because shortages have been thwarted and media attention on the subject have been, amazingly, minimal. Of more importance is that this market has been, and is, run by paper trading and not by the true intrinsic value of the medium at hand. If you understand that point you will understand what is about to happen.

If you don't, then...you lose. Have a nice day.

-- OR (orwelliator@biosys.net), October 17, 1999.

With all due respect I fail to see well supported arguments on the part of all various "gold bugs". They were preaching gold as a great investment for the past 20 years as it gradually went down the drain from $850 to $250. In fact I can't think about worse kind of investment for that particular peiod of time! How many people were devastated and bankrupted by their hopelessly stubborn faith in gold? Yeah, it went up to $325 or whatever...so what? It may recover after all the beating it took but it is no reason to start the same old tune about gold as a crisis commodity. There were many crisises for the past 20 years, wars and recessions, Saddam's threats, etc. Gold does not respond to them in its classical fashion. Apparently, economical fundamentals have changed. It does not surprise people any longer that P/E is not indicative of good buys in the stock market any longer. Why such unshakable trust in a yellow metal so many people display? You are talking about big picture of gold being a desireable commodity in certain Third World countries. Well, US dollars are by far more desireable commodity. It is hard to forge, it is easily recognizable, divisible, convenient to handle and to store. Some people are too much pre-occupied with the fact that USD could be printed at will thereby making them worthless. It is a very illogical leap although remotely posssible, of course. But so is a premise that modern technology will learn how to extract gold out of the sea water or produce it artificially. In fact, technological developments in gold mining do allow extraxtion from the sources which were economically untouchable in the past. The fellow who suggested that maybe opposition to gold investment is artificially injected by various stock brokerage firms (I believe he was using Goldman Sachs as an example) should try to apply a bit of common sense, no matter how hard it is, and make similar assumption that gold proponents may be motivated by their interest in various gold related businesses (investments in gold mines, gold futures, coin dealers, etc). Gene

-- Gene (gkane@netcom.ca), October 18, 1999.

Thanks Gene for your point of view - a fine analysis if I may say so.

Good luck with your greenbacks in 2000 :)

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), October 18, 1999.

Lou: In being a contrarian, what are you contrary to? Think about the definition of who is to be included in the majority group and who in the contrary group. While a lot of posters here, including myself, are bullish on gold, you have to realize that WE are contrary to the general public, so you, by being bearish, are contrary to us, but are NOT contrarian to the public.

If people were lined up at the coin stores in the U.S., Britain, Germany, etc., to BUY, that would be the time to sell to them. (Of course, there is the question of what would you sell [exchange] for?)

Gene: Extracting gold from seawater has already been tried. The Annunaki gave up on that and created "the Adam" to MINE it for them from southern Africa. (Makes more sense to me than other stories.)

-- A (A@AisA.com), October 18, 1999.

Lou,

Go see the movie, Three Kings, while it is still in theaters.

Perhaps then you will understand the value that is attached to gold.

-- nothere nothere (notherethere@hotmail.com), October 18, 1999.

Money will always be paper,but gold will always be gold.

-- zoobie (zoobiezoob@yahoo.com), October 18, 1999.

Gene,

No offense dude, but I think TPTB brainwash has worked on you. And the "third" world countries you talk about are, ALL the Arab countries, and the two largest populations on earth; China and India.

It always helps if you RESEARCH your position before opening your mouth. Your ass doesn't overload it that way...

growlin' at the narrow mind...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), October 18, 1999.

Doggie,

Nothing personal but you are an idiot! What kind of research have you done that I am lacking? I could not see any supported argument in your posting besides an uncontrollable urge to be right. It's excusable for The Dog but not for a human being. Maybe you are a dog, then I must admit that you are very smart for a dog. Otherwise, please, support or disprove what I was saying.

As for the Third World that includes China, India and ALL the Arab nations, obviously, they could not provide enough buying power to keep gold from free fall that lasted for 20 years. Why would their affinity to gold make a difference now? I am just sick with the people like you, doggie, who have nothing to substantiate their views except the fact that you took a physical delivery of gold a while back, obviously, lost a significant part of your investment but don't have courage to admit it. So now you are trying to take down with you anyone else who did not do any research and relies on your "expert opinion". Go, bark on some trees. Most of them will be wrong ones but it will, at least, keep you busy.

-- Gene (gkane@netcom.ca), October 19, 1999.

Gene,

calm the fuck down my friend... We are all, on the same side, yes???

I.e. we are aware...

we are not stoopid...

we "keep abreast" :)

Gene,

ya gotta think "outside the 'box"...

my guess... you are an American...

my guess... you haven't "travelled" much...

hey! Gene, this is not an insult...

I spent hours and hours and hours in the Gold Souks in Saudi Arabia - I learned the "trade" - I smuggled gold [come get me big Brov! :) ]...

I'm a GoldBug :)

Are You???

My take on you Gene...

"a potential convert" - and a wellcome asset with your intellect to the ranks... :) (smile)

Come join us at usagold.com

call me an asshole, i don't care, but the next few years [weeks???] will take your breath away ...

We are all on the cusp

luck to ya

-- Andy (AUVENGER@cs.com), October 19, 1999.

Gene said: "You are talking about big picture of gold being a desireable commodity in certain Third World countries. Well, US dollars are by far more desireable commodity. It is hard to forge, it is easily recognizable, divisible, convenient to handle and to store."

Gene also said: "As for the Third World that includes China, India and ALL the Arab nations, obviously, they could not provide enough buying power to keep gold from free fall that lasted for 20 years."

And once again Gene bathered: "I am just sick with the people like you, doggie, who have nothing to substantiate their views except the fact that you took a physical delivery of gold a while back, obviously, lost a significant part of your investment but don't have courage to admit it. So now you are trying to take down with you anyone else who did not do any research and relies on your 'expert opinion'."

Dude, prozac is available through your doctor.

I did not say anywhere in my reply about being an expert. But for your information, I am still over $50 an ounce in the black on my "investment". I am also still way in the black on my "stock investments".

Regarding your "third world" countries, they have been taking advantage of the manipulated gold price, as I have, and have been stocking up. The USD will no longer be the "currency of choice" in the very near future, and everyone who is in the know has been stocking up on precious metals. They want a store of value, as I do, and not someone else's debt.

You might want to look in the mirror before you call someone an idiot, IMPO, because it is now OBVIOUS you don't have a clue what you are talking about, when you start off a reply with a statement like:

"Nothing personal but you are an idiot!"

How in the hell can anyone not take that personal?

So like Andy said, you keep your greenbacks (TP) and I will keep my precious metals, and we will all meet in the end. I just hope you don't "take it in the end" with your flawed view of "money"...

have a nice day... : )

growlin' at the narrow mind...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), October 19, 1999.

Let's please remember that there are those of us who have bought small weight gold and silver coins bascially as a hedge against what Y2K could bring, and are not really hanging onto every single movement that the spot prices show. In my case, I bought gold and silver when it was relatively cheap last May. Then (partly due to Andy's informed posts) bought some more gold in July, after the price got even lower.

I would be delighted if the price of gold and silver soared, and I hope it does. But even if the prices plunges downward, even to a gold spot price of $200/oz say, I would want to have it -- much like my "investments" in stored food, barterable hand tools, etc., etc.

Bottom line: In my opinion, in view of what is potentially coming with Y2K, you simply cannot judge the buying of physical gold and silver as you would just any "investment".

73 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), October 19, 1999.

Amen, Jack.

snoozin'...

The Dog

-- Dog (Desert Dog@-sand.com), October 19, 1999.