Is Your Bug-Out Plan Really A Plan?

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) Preparation Forum : One Thread

It ain't a plan if you aren't ready and willing to execute it.

Your first decision is whether or not you are prepared to die where you are, if conditions deteriorate to that point. You have the right to that decision, though it gets complicated if spouse, children or other loved ones are involved.

Your next decision point (really, brainstorming point) is to decide under which scenarios you would need to scram and at what point in that scenario.

Your next decision is to decide where you can go. Anywhere that is safer represents a wise choice. This entails a thought-thru willingness to leave all or most everything behind, including many of your preps and a willingness to cast yourself upon others (maybe "unknown others") in a new environment. Again, your choice.

Your next decision is what you will need to bring in such a situation and a commitment to purchase/assemble such, now.

My intuition is that many preppers have as much as decided they aren't going anywhere. While this is understandable, be careful not to subtly elevate your preparations above survival.

As for the question as to whether such a situation is "worth surviving", that can always be weighed later. But you can't bug-out then if you haven't prepared now. Correction: you can bug-out but your then-chances for survival will be greatly reduced.

Don't assume that even a post-TEOTWAWKI world won't be a good one. My Jewish friend who "bugged out" with his family from Germany in 1937 to Palestine made a VERY good decision. The analogy is weak in many ways, but it's better than none. Plan for the future -- don't fantasize about it.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 31, 1999

Answers

If I hear anyone else say "Just go to someone's house who lives out in the country and maybe they will take you in.. I think I will scream!~!!!! Well we live "out" and I would love to take friends in but I just can't.. I am planning on taking my mother and cousin out of the city.. My cousin has two kids,my husbands family are DGI's and probley will be here as well.. I have a dear, dear, friend that I would love(she lives in the city) to be here too.. but she has her husband , her mother , her son , her sister,.. don't you see that it gets very ,very complicated???I also have a brother,his girlfriend , a sister , her husband...even if you live "out" of the city , it doesn;t mean that you can save everybody... I will do the best I can...but the best thing is to save yourself...

-- what if (what to do@don;t know.com), October 31, 1999.

Were you responding to my post? I wasn't suggesting that people, wherever they live, should be imposing on folks who aren't able to help. And, btw, as someone who lives in the country, I don't underestimate the possibility that I may need to bug-out. While, in general, I expect rural settings to be far more workable than urban- suburban, your milage may vary -- maybe YOU will need to bug-out from the country to an urban area. That may seem nuts, but events may prove that to be wiser than you think. I don't "expect" it, but I do expect to be surprised by Y2K.

"Every Y2K prediction will be wrong".

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), October 31, 1999.


"Every Y2K prediction will be wrong". I expect that to be true, of course since it is in itself a Y2K prediction it would have to be it's own exception.

We will not bug out, that was never a serious consideration. If things here aren't safe then I can't imagine them being safe anywhere that we could bug out to. Our set-up is the kind others should have as a back-up to bug out to. I encourage people who believe they might need to bug out to arrange a place in advance, regardless of how difficult that might be. It'll be easier to do it now then it would be under those circumstances.

Big Dog, what did you mean by "be careful not to subtly elevate your preparations above survival"?

-- Gus (y2kk@usa.net), October 31, 1999.


BigDog-I think you're right about the thought process needs. If we have given as much thought as possible to whatever potentialities might happen, everything will be a surprise. There will be enough surprises without missing the obvious. I too live in the country and have thought that a "reverse" bug-out might be necessary to a nearby urban area. If my reasoning is correct and the PTB decide to allocate scarce resources (power, food, etc) to a higher concentration of people, the country folks could find themselves the last to get the lights back on. I don't have any intention of doing this, as I feel I and my family will do just fine where we are if left alone; but you never know what may force a change in direction. Just how much in the way of preps would you take with you under this scenario? By the by, do you think 40 miles is far enough from the city folks if things go bad? Too many people with whom I work in the city know where I live. I like a lot of them, but can't take care of them all.

Bill

-- Bill (Bill@SHF.com), October 31, 1999.


I have personally found making bug out plans (a B plan) to be very difficult-- emotionally, logistically, and financially. I know of others who also feel the same. Even if you got money burning a hole in your pocket or might pull it together somehow, the options are getting fewer. For example, we called around to find out about renting an RV and non are locally available until after the rollover. Those RVs that will be available after the rollover also seemed to be marked up: $1,000/week to sleep six people. On the other hand, some very kind people have invited us to double up with them, but I really don't want to impose on people who will already have a full house if TSHTF.

What about renting a farm house in the country? It doesn't seem like people want to rent these days. So what are you going to do? Walk out of the city and suburbs and attempt to make an existence in the state and national parks? Well, I doubt we'd get far. If we did make it to the woods... even if I was a die-hard survivalist, I doubt we'd make it through one month in the winter. Mel Tappan on Survival will give you a pretty good idea of what won't work and what could work with enough preparation and resources. Thinking about living out of a backpack, I assume, would have given Mel a good laugh. Tappan wasn't very optimistic about survivalists making a life in the woods either.

But I think that Big Dog asking if we are prepared to die is the wrong approach from someone who is better positioned than others. I don't think Big Dog feels the frustration, anxiety, and sadness of GIs in the high population centers. It's easy to talk about bugging out when you are less likely to need to bug out, since the fact is that bugging out when the balloon goes up is likely not to be of any good. If you don't have somewhere to go, I doubt you will find a place before the roads and highways are choked. And if you aren't offering safe haven to GIs in or near any of the high population centers, you really aren't giving the less fortunate GIs much to work with or hope for.

I know that you don't mean to taunt us, Big Dog. I know that you are genuinely worried about us all. But unless you have some good ideas about what all of us are going to go, I'm not sure that lighting a fire under us GIs in the high population centers to get bugging is going to save lives and prevent suffering. Am I now prepared to die? Of course, not. Don't be silly. Neither I am prepared to see those I love suffer or die. If things get bad (big IF), I do not doubt that I will try to prevent suffering and death... but hopefully not by any means. And I do worry about THAT. To meet an unfortunate fate with as much graciousness as I can. Will I still make distinctions between right and wrong if TSHTF?

Will I lose more than just my life?

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), October 31, 1999.



We live in the country and our bug out plan is our moterhome. We should not have to bug out for Y2K, but we might have to use it in case of floods, earthquake or volcanic eruptions (we live in No. Ca., near Mt Lassen and Mt. Shasta). There is always the possibility of some type of family emergency when we might have to travel unexpectantly. The moterhome also makes a great guesthouse.

-- Homeschooling Grandma (mlaymon@glenn-co.k12.ca.us), October 31, 1999.

Gus -- preparations are for a purpose: protection of our families and, where possible, helping others. If we elevate the gathering, keeping, using of the "stuff" itself above the purpose, I feel we are in danger of not only losing perspective but, it may be, endangering the very safety the preparing might have supported. The most important preparations of all are flexibility and courage in the face of things we can't foresee. If "holding on to our preps" distorts our ability to be flexible, then we may compromise our survival without realizing it.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 01, 1999.

Bill -- You have described a very plausible scenario. In my rural area, there may still only be 30% who can make it through TEOTWAWKI. Most (though far less than maybe the 5% suburban/1% urban) are just as dependent on the grocery store for tomorrow's food as they are in those areas. And just as unequipped to grow their own. And so it goes.

If physical security and sustenance can be brought to the population areas while our area is "abandoned", it could be quite dangerous physically and debilitating psychologically.

All scenarios have gaps. How will the pop centers be fed if the countryside is so insecure? Dunno. OTOH, assuming TEOTWAWKI, none of the trade-offs will be pleasant in the first few years.

I can imagine other scenarios. And there are scenarios I can't imagine.

One of the purposes of this thread was to provoke those who think they are secure BECAUSE of their preps to continue to do the hard thinking and planning that made them preppers in the first place.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 01, 1999.


Stan said (I reply)

I have personally found making bug out plans (a B plan) to be very difficult-- emotionally, logistically, and financially. I know of others who also feel the same.

(That is one of the reasons I posted this thread)

Even if you got money burning a hole in your pocket or might pull it together somehow, the options are getting fewer. For example, we called around to find out about renting an RV and non are locally available until after the rollover. Those RVs that will be available after the rollover also seemed to be marked up: $1,000/week to sleep six people.

(You are right. This is, again, why it is important to call this to people's attention once more with 60 days remaining, instead of 30 days. I have participated in numerous online and offline discussions with people about this for the past year. Time is getting short).

On the other hand, some very kind people have invited us to double up with them, but I really don't want to impose on people who will already have a full house if TSHTF.

(If the offer was genuine, why not accept? I'm asking generally, you may well have good, private reasons for that. Assuming they are honest, they have already telegraphed whether or not it is really an imposition. If you are saying "no" to a workable B plan, then you limit your options from the start). What about renting a farm house in the country? It doesn't seem like people want to rent these days.

(People do rent up here, though one can't always get a farmhouse on short notice for rent. Trailers and other small places come available, just like most other locales. There are many places that might be safe in various areas around the country, few of them farmhouses.)

So what are you going to do? Walk out of the city and suburbs and attempt to make an existence in the state and national parks? Well, I doubt we'd get far. If we did make it to the woods... even if I was a die-hard survivalist, I doubt we'd make it through one month in the winter. Mel Tappan on Survival will give you a pretty good idea of what won't work and what could work with enough preparation and resources. Thinking about living out of a backpack, I assume, would have given Mel a good laugh. Tappan wasn't very optimistic about survivalists making a life in the woods either.

(Vanishingly few people can do this, agree).

But I think that Big Dog asking if we are prepared to die is the wrong approach from someone who is better positioned than others.

(What I said, was, are we prepared to make decisions (ie, readiness to leave our preps behind) so that we enhance our chances for making it through in a worst case? I'm confused by this statement? I did say that people who stay put should do so based on having thought through the risks of doing so, one of which risks might be death. This has quite a different tone than what you are saying above, no? Better positioned does have some nuances to it as well. With a four-year old and other young children, I am EXCRUCIATINGLY aware of how less well- positioned I am than many others. My preps would have been 180 degrees different otherwise.)

I don't think Big Dog feels the frustration, anxiety, and sadness of GIs in the high population centers.

(No doubt).

It's easy to talk about bugging out when you are less likely to need to bug out, since the fact is that bugging out when the balloon goes up is likely not to be of any good. If you don't have somewhere to go, I doubt you will find a place before the roads and highways are choked. And if you aren't offering safe haven to GIs in or near any of the high population centers, you really aren't giving the less fortunate GIs much to work with or hope for.

(Personally, we have done and are doing things to help people, within the limits of our means and opportunity. My participation on this forum is one of those, though not the only one of those initiatives. Many people, cf Paul Milne, have said they will help others, consistent with their own convictions about the balance between that and the personal responsibility of those they help. Unfortunately, Y2K is a messy situation and there are no "one size fits all" solutions that I can see.)

I know that you don't mean to taunt us, Big Dog. I know that you are genuinely worried about us all. But unless you have some good ideas about what all of us are going to go, I'm not sure that lighting a fire under us GIs in the high population centers to get bugging is going to save lives and prevent suffering.

(Stan, as I made clear at the top and subsequently, this post was not aimed specifically (even mainly) at those in high population centers. In retrospect, I should have directed it at those who FEEL themselves secure in other settings, since that was my purpose. You may be overestimating rural safety at the expense of urban/suburban. Or you may not. I don't know.)

Am I now prepared to die? Of course, not. Don't be silly. Neither I am prepared to see those I love suffer or die. If things get bad (big IF), I do not doubt that I will try to prevent suffering and death... but hopefully not by any means. And I do worry about THAT. To meet an unfortunate fate with as much graciousness as I can. Will I still make distinctions between right and wrong if TSHTF?

Will I lose more than just my life?

(I can't answer these questions and I know they weren't directed at me. God knows. I would say that you are blessed to have someone who has invited you to share their space. Many who are making these plans do not.)

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 01, 1999.


Here's a point to think about. Thinking clearly about bugging out is a hard thing to do. Some may not want to come to grips with bugging out, perhaps because it means taking the kind of action that flies in the face of everything we have done up to that point to make a life for ourselves. Leaving your home, business, and community for the an unknown future is a big deal -- especially if it means a significant financial and/or other kinds of loss. Yes, I believe human life has greater priority than these things, but (for most of us) making a decision to accept such losses in the face of the uncertain risks of Y2K problems can be no easy decision. It's a lot to ask of anyone. Even a gentle reminder that such decisions should be made will be met with emotion.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 01, 1999.



Big Dog,

You asked if I was overestimating the safety of the rural hidey hole?

Not all rural hidey holes are equal to be sure. I don't have time right now to get into what rural hidey hole could be ideal for the survivalist who is preparing for a variety of threats. Sure, there are advantages and disadvantages to any location. In regard to Y2K, the countryside seems ideal and the high population center seems a very bad place to be for the following reasons: (1) intense dependency on technology, commerce, law, and order, (2) sheer number of people that you will be forced to interact with, (3) greater likelihood and opportunity for the spread of infectious and contagious diseases. This is just off the top of my head. Initially, then, the country seems the place to be if things are getting out of hand in the suburbs and cities. But it is true that at a certain point when high population centers are stabilized and will be so for the foreseeable future, the suburbs and cities may be the place to be-- if you want to rejoin modern civilization... if you want to enjoy the protection, luxuries, and opportunities of such.

So, yes, I see where it might be intelligent for people now living in rural towns to consider that it may be in their best interest to take in people from the suburbs and city and be able to return with those people to the wonders of suburban and city life-- wherever thay might be.

Sincerely, Stan Faryna

-- Stan Faryna (faryna@groupmail.com), November 01, 1999.


Bugging out has many dimensions - one of them could be described as flip/flop (as in the M.A.S.H. episode where they had to move the hospital due to changes in the battle front...then had to move it back when the tide of battle ebbed the other way).

Consider gas clouds from nearby chemical plants drifting your way causing a temporary bug out until the chem plants burn out and air clears. A small, light bug out "bag" might be just the ticket in such a situation if the N.G. evacuates the area and keeps looters out.

-- Dennis Law (PaulLaw@aol.com), November 01, 1999.


Big Dog and all the other regulars......

Ok, here is my plan.... and my lifestyle....Will you please give me your honest opinion.

I am married with three children (under 8 yrs), we live on 6.5 acres. The nearest town is 12xxx people, the nearest large city is 3 hours. We do live near a busy hwy though.

Our house has 6 bedrooms (that will be filled with relatives, I'm sure) We heat 100% with wood, always have. We have a beef cow, dairy cow, chickens, rabbits, turkeys, 2 rideable horses, and plenty of grain & hay. We have non-hybrid seed, large garden, moterized and manual tools. We have gas and a generator, this year we put up solar and a wind generator also. Guns are taken care of as is plenty of amo. I have stocked plenty of food for our family and some for others also. We have grain and the ability to grind it, (I can even make a pretty good loaf of bread with whole grains).

All of this ..... but we have no bug out set up.

My quesion is.... would you sudgest a bugout? I know no one but I can make this call, but I would like to hear your opinion.

I have a small 'turleshell' that fits on the top of a car. We could pack a med size tent, sleeping bags, food, gun, amo, matches....etc. But where in the world would we hide it?

Now I know this will sound extreem.... but I have thought about building a fake wall or a hiding place in our house for the kids. My only problem is..... if we can not hold our farm.... and all of the adults dont make it. I dont think I want my little girls left behind. I mean there are things worse than death.

Oh, I am depressed now. I think I will go eat a candy bar.

Yes, I did stock up on candy bars too.

Thanks for all your time and effort in helping us prepare.

-- bulldog (sniffin@around.com), November 01, 1999.


BigDog, I think that if most urban/suburban GIs haven't yet found a safe and intelligent place and manner in which to bugout, this is rather late to do so. There are too many unknowns in any location to which one might conceivably go. Are the natives friendly, or do they resent the newcomer as infringing on their local supplies? What is the house/farm/whatever like, and what would it take to make it a safe refuge? Would the owner allow modifications, such as nailing up plywood over windows, securing doors, etc.? Is there time in which to do so, if one found an owner so disposed? If an owner agreed to this, they would know the newcomer is prepared to survive...and aren't we to be keeping that secret? So would the entire community...they would realize someone would not go to a new location without preparation to survive. Will they then become more of a threat than one's city or suburban neighbors?

If one lives paycheck to paycheck and he/she takes vacation time in which to bugout, what if that must be extended indefinitely: how would they then support themselves? If things died down to nearly-normal, or even remotely normal, and they could not get back to their job, would they then not have one...being fired and having no income is as deadly to an senior citizen who has difficulty enough finding employment without risking it this way...IF there is still a job to go to.

If one entrusts one's life to others they don't know in order to obtain sanctuary/community, how does one know that they are then safe with these folks, GIs or not? Some GIs post pretty scarey stuff on the TB2000 Forum!!! And what if one's preps and/or money, and/or health gave out: would these strangers be willing to continue to carry them, or would they become a minus factor that could be "factored out?"

What if the persons to whom one entrusts the self are careless in their use of firearms, and engender later arrest, or are seen as any sort of communal threat to TPTB? Isn't one then safer to have stayed alone?

If one leaves behind the bulk of one's preps in order to flee, and is not a Daniel Boone who knows how to live off the land, and finds themself needing food, water, etc., will they not be dead in short order? How does one even contemplate trying to do such a thing?

What sort of territory does one endeavor to reach, and how does one know that this area will be any safer than the one they left?

These are only some of the main questions that trouble me about bugging out. They are what frighten me into thinking that the only recourse for people without the money to have set themselves up in a place like Cory's or Ed's or yours even, is to stand their ground, stick by their preps, and be prepared to meet the unknown at least in an area with which they are familiar, and where they at least know people and are known, whether or not these people will be in any remotest way able or willing to ever be of any aid or comfort.

For a woman of 64, who has a lot of grit, inner strength, and faith, this is still a very, very frightening subject. The natural desire is flight. However, that can be only a fantasy for those who cannot.

Sorry to sound negative, but there is MUCH to consider in bugging out.

-- Elaine Seavey (Gods1sheep@aol.com), November 01, 1999.


Dennis -- Very true about "flip-flopping" and I hadn't thought of that. Thanks.

Bulldog -- No easy answer, as I'm sure you have concluded for yourself. Here is the way I look at it: a bug-out bag/plan does not constitute a decision to bug-out. But the failure to plan in advance will make bug-out much more difficult IF you decide it is necessary. Sabbie? Think of it in the same spirit as all your preps -- hoping for the best but preparing for the worst.

Elaine -- Your questions are almost all profound, tough and nearly unanswerable, at least in a formulaic fashion. The only real answer is that EVERYONE's situation is individual. Some know relatives, some don't. Some have friends in the country, some don't. Some are in robust health, others are frail. Some have significant relationships to consider, others don't. Remember, as I mention just above, this post is an injuntion to think and plan NOW. That plan might well be to stay put -- and Y2K is so unpredictable that this might be the best of all possible plans for "you". Hope that makes sense.

-- BigDog (BigDog@duffer.com), November 01, 1999.



For a fairly realistic discussion of the practicalities of "bugging out," check the books of Ragnar Benson on Survival Retreats, http://www.paladinpress.com.

-- Not Whistlin' Dixie (not_whistlin_dixie@yahoo.com), November 01, 1999.

There is an article on my website entitled "Serious Voluntary Relocation" that addresses many of the concerns of this subject, and includes some very useful links to other related references as well.

My website: www.y2ksafeminnesota.com (look towards the bottom of the homepage for the link to the article.)

-- MinnesotaSmith (y2ksafeminnesota@hotmail.com), November 01, 1999.


Stan, I'd take that bug out with the family that offered, if I were you. So what if you think they'll be crowded? If they offered, don't you suppose they knew that when they offered?

-- helen (sstaten@fullnet.net), November 01, 1999.

Bulldog; What Russ said makes sense. Put together a plan of some sort, even if it is to select the State Park/nat'l forest campsite you might go to and camp from the car. OR if you know someone in another part of the country.......

Stan: Verify the offer again with a visit. Let it come up in conversation during a visit for some other reason (and you GOTTA have SOMETHING you want to see them about). if it verifies as a true offer, and you DON'T take it you will have proven yourself quite foolish.

BigDog: Thanks for the reminder. gotta talk to some people.

ALL: Making the decision that one MIGHT have to is the hardest decision. After that, you build the bugout bags and the SUE's based on some horible nightmare fantasy. But you can AWAKE from the fantasy NOW, once the bag is packed for each person and in a good place. If you DON'T consciously HAVE the fantasy, and pack the bags, then you won't have them IF you need them. If you have stored water and ammo, then you better by God seriously reconsider a decision that bugging out is not for you!!

Chuck, who with his wife has identified 3 different LEVELS of bugging out, 2 of which require the permanent divestiture of 3 small furry 4- footed kids. (note the evident denial??)

C

-- Chuck, a night driver (rienzoo@en.com), November 02, 1999.


I have bugged out. I'm here and I'm not bugging any further. Simply can't conceive of how or where. We won't freeze to death here and I think it should be fairly safe. Water might be a problem although there is a river within walking distance--quite close. I have good filters. Those oil posts yesterday were quite disturbing though...

-- Mara (MaraWayne@aol.com), November 02, 1999.

I want family and the friends we've invited to crowd in our home. I believe it will make our home more secure to have more people. God has blessed us with a big home in the country and I want us to hold the fort.

-- bug-in (family@welcome.com), November 02, 1999.

Just a reminder that bugging out does not necessarily mean moving from your *Home* to the country.

In the event of a significant failure(Y2K or Extreme Weather) it may be that those of us who work long distances from home will need to *Bug Out* from a "City in panic" to get home to our loved ones. This kind of planning including a bug out bag for the car, maps with alternate routes out of the city highlighted on it, and a list of appropriate warning signs to watch out for.

Back to BD's topic: As I live in a rural area, I have had to consider what my options would be if I was forced to leave my home in order for my family to survive. If it came down to it, I would not jeopardize my family to stay at my home. I had to look at it this way, I can rebuild a home but I cannot as easily replace a loved one. To this end I have purchased and put together two Bug Out bags (ask Stan or Myself for a copy of the Bug-Out Bag equipment list) and made some hard choices on places to bug out to. (Short term to medium term - travel to a friend's farm, Longer term - traveling farther or camping) These were all tough decisions but they needed to be discussed even if I don't ever need to make them.

Also, sometimes just the willingness to think through a bugout situation (leaving your home)and making mental or paper lists of what would be required can enhance your ability to make decisions in a crisis(bugout or otherwise)because you have already thought the tough things through.

-- ExCop (yinadral@juno.com), November 02, 1999.


Actually, I don't have a bug-out plan. That is not to say that I haven't read through bug-out plans and bug-out bag lists. I've even recommended these to others.

No, it's not that I've 'elevated my preps above survival'. I really have very little in the way of preps compared to many who write here. One of the drawbacks of not GI until the end of June and barely making it paycheck to paycheck.

There are 3 adult family members in my immediate household, and 2 adult family members who live 'just up the road.' I won't tally up the number of dogs, cats and horses between us. We live in a northern climate where it is not uncommon to get temperartures to -20 F in January. And windchills to -40 F. Of course I have seen it get to -40 F (actual) and -90 F (windchill). That is the worst I have seen it, I admit. But I can't realistically see bugging out in those circumstances.

One person in my family would not be able to take temps lower than in the 60s, and also is not be able to walk any distance.

We are already rural. There simply is no other place for us to go except into the elements, and that, seemingly, is as sure a death as any.

Perhaps my horizons need to be widened. Thing is, if y2k goes badly, I'm not so sure we'll make it, even if we stay put. I know we won't make it if we have to leave.

No fantasies here.

-- winter wondering (winterwondering@yahoo.com), November 02, 1999.


No bug out plans here...If I can't defend this and stay here, this is where it will end. If you're heading for the country you'll probably not be welcome unless you bring your own food. (BYOF). God help us all.

-- Ace (Ace@nospam.com), November 05, 1999.

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