From the Kitco Discussion Forum:

"Date: Fri Nov 05 1999 13:50 cherokee (@......dotssm.......hfwmm..........ngaffftwdc............yar.........'tis.true....) ID#198217: Copyright ) 1999 cherokee All rights reserved

oil.....the crude-one.......

http://dieoff.org/page131.htm

as to what the oil ANALyst--dd--has been saying about the energy industry due to y2k....i worked in the production and refining division with mobil oil..superior oil... and exxon......offshore and inshore...

imagine a train if you will......one that will not function without ALL of the cars being linked together....from the wells in the fields....to the pipelines....to the h2o and co2 scrubbers.....to the distillation columns in the plants... let 1 of these devices fail....and the train stops...

i worked in cryogenic plants.....HUGE.....processed 220mmscfd natural gas.....80,000gallons propane....40,000gallons normal butane... 20,000gallons iso-butane.....6,000gallons gasoline....per day... the infra-structure of these plants is HUGE...from the cooling towers.. to the chemical injectors....from the compressors...to the storage and metering points.....ALL are tied into systems that have ANTIQUATED electronic systems......let 1 link in the chain fail....

as an example....i had a 1000hp boiler offshore that was critical to a platform installation at high island in the gulf of mexico.in 1979...it had recently received an up-grade for the controller...a brand new electronic controller....it processed the calls for more heat...water...safety relief valves..etc.....well...the material the board was built from did not like heat....it actually fell to pieces in a matter of days....the job was at risk..so i by-passed ALL the controllers and manually actuated the devices using jumpers in the control panel based upon visual observations...damned near impossible....and dangerous..the old controller had been junked--worked real well imo--and here we were with a handfull of junk...and a boiler being operated by hand...

to attempt to operate a gas plant by hand is impossible....absolutely impossible....

ALL the plants--rov's--pipeline inlets and outlet valving are controlled remotely by set-points denoting pressure...temperature... water and co2 content....ANY one of these variables will shut-in the pipeline ( s ) and shut-down the plants ( s ) with subsequent flaring of the raw hydro-carbons until the problems are resolved....

these plants are very suceptible to ANY bobbles with-in its' system.. let the temperature vary ever so slightly in a reboiler...and the product stream in contaminated and has to be re-cycled...let an outlet valve shut-in....high pressure shut-down valves at the well heads will close...effectively stopping production of the RAW hydro-carbons.. consequently stopping the refining processes.....which in turn provides feed-stocks and fuels to the rest of the economy.....

these plants were at least 30--THIRTY--years old....i witnessed electrical engineers looking at the old controllers--2'nd generation electronics--and wondering how they functioned....and what they really did in the scheme of plant operations.....as there ARE NO SCHEMATICS for the majority of these sytems....i repeat....NO SCHEMATICS..

most of the wells on-shore do not have down-hole shut-down devices.... offshore we called them storm chokes.....had to be manually opened with a down-hole wire-line unit....1/2 days work to get it back on-line....the wells on-shore are safe-guarded with above ground hi/lo devices..they work pneumatically off of the wells own natural gas pressure...and shut the well in if either a high or low pressure event occurs..it takes hours to bring gas wells back on-line after a shut-in....it takes days to bring plants back on-line from a shut-down...if you are real lucky.....

the electrical generating stations around houston use natural gas to fire their boilers...they are required by federal law to maintain a 30 day reserve of emergency fuel stocks in the form of fuel oil.... these huge 500,000bbl tanks are actually located on-site next to the power plants....however...these same electrical generating stations are AT LEAST 30 YEARS OLD TOO!!!!! with the same problems as the refineries....OLD ELECTRONICS OUT THE KAZOO.....

from the oil well/gas wells....to the refineries......to the electrical generating stations.....there are going to be HUGE PROBLEMS...delivery of the hydro-carbons....refining.....electrical generation...

forget about it.....and........i know of what i speak........ gas plant operator....instrumentation and electrical in gas plants and in field operations.....electronic/electrical operations for electrical generating plants in houston...

--all older than methuzula...

we are in some deep sh!t......well....most of YOU are...

call options in the hydrocarbons will pay-off quite handsomely... if the world does not end jan1.......

welcome newbies.....go back and read kitco.......been there..done.that..

!;..cherokee!;........./..\............looking.back.to.see.forward.. "

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), November 05, 1999

Answers

Doesn't it appears that the critical components are pre-embedded chip? If all of this equipment is older than the Y2K 'bug', then what is his issue? Should we be concerned? If all energy infrastucture is as fragile as described, shouldn't it have already crumbled? Jeremiah's message is highly dubious.

-- D. Cipher (anon@anon.com), November 05, 1999.

[polly mode on] So? We just use batteries then. Lots and lots of batteries. [polly mode off] Look, what this guy is saying, is that an oil refinery is highly systemic. If even one component malfunctions, it renders the entire production line inoperable. Get it?

Saul

-- Saul (pollys@dont.getit), November 05, 1999.

"Doesn't it appears that the critical components are pre-embedded chip?"

Think SYSTEMIC dude! Think PROBLEM CONVERGENCE (Or, as they say, "When it rains, it pours!)! If I wanted the focus of this posting of "Cherokee"'s message to be on the embedded system issue, I would have put this under the "Embedded" category. Yeesh!

And, oh yeah, this oil processing infrastructure has not "crumbled" yet because: 1. It is not Y2K yet, and: 2. the infrastructures that support it have not themselves collapsed yet.

Step back folks... No... Farther... No-WAY BACK... KEEP GOING!... KEEP GOING!... O.K.!... NOW LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE!!!

JJ

-- Jeremiah Jetson (laterthan@uthink.y2k), November 05, 1999.

This sounds alot like one of those old strings of Christmas lights where if 1 bulb will not light up-neither will any of the others. Apparantly you do not need much of an incident to screw up the pil supply.

-- (sowingseeds@garden.net), November 05, 1999.

The Big Domino is going to fall and it can't be stopped by the rhetoric of the Pollys.

-- DGBennett (bennett1@peachnet.net), November 05, 1999.