From www.gold-eagle.com

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(Different from the usual gold-oriented article one sees, this one makes a lot of scary conjectures.)

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 07, 1999

Answers

Jack, Won't Y2K itself stall any agressive tendencies. As world flash points divert their attention to their own domestic Y2K disruptions, what is left to bully the rest of the world?

And won't the USA and allies recover from any Y2K disruptions quicker and be in the stronger position.

I expect the USA and allies will be offering humanitarina aid to those countries in deep need by mid-2000.

-- Bill P (porterwn@one.net), November 07, 1999.

Bill, clearly "nobody knows", and as I indicated above, this editorial is different from the norm at the gold-eagle site. At the same time, it does bring up some provocative points.

China, for example, has a Navy that I have seen described as effectively of WWII technology vintage -- and quite Y2K compliant because of that. I seriously doubt that the average citizen of the People's Republic of China is as nearly dependent on computer technology as a more "developed" nation is. It is my understanding that China, besides a lower standard of living, also has a much lower division of labor, and that in any case historically continues to use currency or barter rather than being dependent on a large scale banking system. The point that I am making is that the actual effects of Y2K problems, even if in a sense more numerous in China (e.g., the apparently high percentage of systems that use "pirated" software and thus have not been updated for Y2K), might actually be less of a hardship there than elsewhere.

Remember the effect that the failure of the Galaxy IV satellite had in early 1998, throwing pagers, cell phones, credit card transactions, etc., into a tizzy here in the U.S.? I suspect that sort of failure would not be felt in many other countries by the average citizen. Nor, for that matter, impact their military capabilities as much.

54 days.

-- Jack (jsprat@eld.~net), November 07, 1999.

Doug McIntosh is on target regarding China's forthcoming invasion of Taiwan.

-- Randolph (dinosaur@williams-net.com), November 07, 1999.

Jack - thanks - McIntosh seems to have hid finger on the pulse here...

[My comments in #######...]

Y2K - GLOBAL MILITARY IMPLICATIONS

If you are easily depressed, stop reading. But if you are really interested in understanding the whole context of Y2K: economic, political, cultural and military; then, keep reading. If you are still reading this, then understand that war preparations are proceeding unabated, either to start an actual war or for intimidating, and then extorting concessions from an enemy. In this case, the enemy being the United States of America. Below are several scenarios that I feel are perfectly reasonable in the first few months of 2000. Whether actual war breaks out is unknown to me, I have no prophetic gift. I do know that the world will enter a period, a window if you will, of incredible instability. What the exact political, economic and military results from this wave of global instability will be is unknown to me. There can be no doubt that certain opportunistic regimes will exploit this window to achieve their long standing goal of destroying America. At least what we Americans haven't already destroyed. A while back in another essay I wrote that you could see the gleam of the wolf pack's eyes in the darkness beyond the campfire's glow. Now, with less than sixty days to go, you can hear the growls.

####### 54 days... essentially no time left to do anything... all bets by now have been played and will be played... #######

After all, what is an opportunist besides someone who takes advantage of an opportunity? Y2K is the single greatest opportunity to inflict damage upon the West. It's stupid to think that this once in a lifetime chance won't be exploited.

####### Sun Tzu would agree. Old scores are going to be settled in the next six months... #######

CHINESE FIRST STRIKE- The single most obvious Y2K related military adventure is a Chinese invasion of an earthquake weakened Taiwan. In conjunction with their North Korean allies launching a surprise attack into South Korea and selected nuclear strikes into Japan, Asia would be overrun within 72 hours. The US forces in Korea, some 30,000 would be slaughtered and the Aircraft battle groups would die in port at Yokohama. If they were at sea, they would be destroyed by the Chinese using information gained through espionage. Any attempts at reinforcing Asian allies or US forces would be thwarted by the Chinese military front group assuming control of both entrances to the Panama Canal on 12-31-99. Either the canal would be destroyed or missile strikes would be launched on any US naval ship attempting passage. Storming the two forts would take time, troops and weapons desperately needed elsewhere. Unless the United States wanted to move ships by railroad car, nothing from the East Coast would reach Asia for weeks, if not months.

The Chinese would also issue an ultimatum to Clinton, one already hinted at. The Beijing government would simply inform the United States that any attempt to intervene in Asia would lead to nuclear missile strikes upon five targets in the western United States. These are: the radioactive waste dump at Hanford in Richland, Washington, the nerve gas storage bunkers at Umatilla, Oregon(50 miles south of Hanford), the Los Angeles metroplex, the Prudoe Bay Oil production center, and the Valdez oil shipping port(both in Alaska). Any US president, especially this one, when faced with either the prospect of millions of US dead or eliminating US oil production for five years would cry Uncle(no pun intended).

The Chinese would then use their new naval base in the Splatly ####### thought it was Spratley? ####### Islands to control access into their "sphere of influence" and wait to see what Y2k did to the Western powers. It would be months, and possibly years, before the United States could do anything about it-even assuming that the Pentagon isn't still lying about all those mission critical systems. Intimidating an enemy into surrender is even better than beating them in a war. Who knows, maybe Clinton will get a high government post in his Chinese friends new "East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere?"

####### All of the above I agree with. The US forces in Korea would be sacrificed IMHO as they would get no "back-up" from US forces occupied elsewhere. I believe that if there is an attack by China, then Muslim extremists will be in on the plan and will initiate another flank attack. #######

PAKISTAN/INDIA/KASHMIR FLASH POINT- This one is more likely to be a shooting war, especially since the soldier who started the Pakistani invasion of Kashmir is now ruling Pakistan. Assuming the global satellites are still working, we might even see the nuclear red glow over Calcutta.

####### Of all nuke scenarios, this is the most likely IMHO due to their proximity, short fuses and ingrained religious hatred of each other... #######

THE MIDDLE EAST IS LIKELY TO EXPLODE- Where to begin? It's likely that oil production will be sharply curtailed by Y2K. This will lead to widespread economic; then political, effects for moderate Arab governments-those that screw their people but tolerate the West. These effects will also happen to radical Arab governments-those that screw their people, but hate the West. Both camps will eventually unite in blaming Y2K on a "Western and Zionist" conspiracy and go to war to cya, plural.

####### This is already happening in the Arab world - Y2K is being set-up as a Western bogey-man plan to disrupt the Muslim world... #######

While outside the Mid-East, Indonesia will become an Islamic Republic after it experiences Y2k induced economic collapse. This Y2K economic collapse being different than the International Monetary Fund induced one they are currently enduring. The Indonesian people can be forgiven if they think IMF stands for I'm #@$%##. At any rate, it's a no brainer to predict massive instability all through the Mid-East. This for no other reason than massive instability is the natural state of the Mid-East. But seriously, how a Mideast war can be avoided in the next 18 months is beyond me. Although how we avoided one in the past 18 months is also beyond me. Did I mention that Saddam of Iraq and all the weapons of mass destruction the United Nations arms inspectors didn't find are still around? Like I said, this is depressing stuff.

####### IMHO this is a certainty. Islamic fundamentalists are determined to retake Jerusalem, for religious reasons. They have the money and will to attempt it. Oil is also at stake in the equation. #######

RUSSIA HAS A COUP- Considering Yeltsin's popularity is currently hovering around 6% this seems anticlimactic. The current campaign in Chetyna ####### Chechnya #######is the first of many to solidify Russian control of the Caspian oil fields and their pipeline routes to the West. The recent Armenian assassinations may very well have been KGB inspired to further destabilize the entire region. It's reported that Yeltsin may not even be in control of the war effort. Aside from the truly scary thought of several Chernobyls, Y2k may be the final straw for Russia. A truly vicious, anti-Semitic and rabidly nationalistic Russia looms on the horizon. The Russia predicted in the Old Testament's Ezekiel chapter 38 in fact. An embittered Russia, linked with an enraged Islam could use Y2k induced chaos to try and settle the score once and for all against both the West and the Jews they blame for their troubles.

####### Chechnya is ALL ABOUT OIL... #######

Current events are playing right into Russian extremists worst nightmare. The ill advised expansion of NATO(North Atlantic Treaty Organization) to include former Warsaw pact countries has increased Russian paranoia. Combined with America's unilateral abandonment of 1972's ABM treaty (granted a bad treaty, but why now?) and the illegal, unconstitutional and immoral war in Yugoslavia last spring, Russia has every right to view the United States with fear and loathing. The Corporate and Banking Cabal that runs the United States oligarchy has sown the seeds of war into the fertile soil of Russian historical paranoia. Once Y2K with its global chaos hits next year, Russia may very well lash out against what she views as her western and Jewish oppressors. It's quite clear that the foreign policy clowns haven't a clue to what's really going on in Russia. You heard it first on gold-eagle.com. If a Russian default almost took down one company which required Greenspan to bail it out to save the western banking system, what do you think a Russian collapse, in the context of Y2K, will do. Can anyone say $2500 an ounce gold? OK, maybe only $2000.

####### Yes. I can say $3,4,5000 an oz. during 2000... #######

GENERALIZED GLOBAL CHAOS- Has anyone pondered what general international chaos means for global trade, diplomacy, travel and life in general? The company line is the USA will be ok but don't go to insert country here. What if everywhere is like that? What kind of governments will be elected, or seize power, by frustrated people in countries under stress? Will they go to war with each other? Who knows? Here is the United States insolently asserting that we are immune to all this looming chaos. It shouldn't have been the Ugly American; it should have been the Arrogant American.

####### the Bully Boy Clinton has sewn thse seeds... #######

But enough. You get the idea. Y2K will have military effects, either through actual war or intimidation and extortion. However, if the United States military suffers a technological collapse then all bets are off. We may then see a direct attack upon the continental United States. An attack that will be conducted with absolute impunity by forces that despise all that the Corporate Banking Cabal has done throughout the world. As we used to say in the Army, payback is a mother.

####### Yes it is. Ask Joel Skousen, Lunev, Ruddy et al. #######

WHO WILLS CAN-WHO TRIES DOES-WHO LOVES LIVES

Doug McIntosh 8 November 1999

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), November 07, 1999.

The one thing the article doesn't mention is the possibility of terrorists on US soil depositing chemicals and/or biologicals ("anthrax in a can") in water supplies or in public areas. The Nightline special from a couple of weeks ago pointed out how really vulnerable we are to this kind of thing. Local or national law enforcement, busy from dealing with local failures and possible public unrest, would be unable to stop this sort of penetration. It's interesting how that kind of information plays on your mind. Moving through the Atlanta airport a couple of weeks ago, I felt particularly vulnerable and couldn't wait to get out of there.

"I wouldn't be so paranoid if everyone wasn't out to get me!"

-- rob minor (rbminor@hotmail.com), November 07, 1999.

AND FURTHER MORE,

How are all these countries going to invade their enemies without fuel?

Walk? Swim? Paddle?

Or doesn't the Y2K bug cut both ways?

-- GoldReal (GoldReal@aol.com), November 07, 1999.

Rob,

Correct. The CIA is well aware of suitcase nukes on US soil already smuggled in by [fill in the blank - Clinton has assured us of many many enemies...]... BIO warfare is almost a certainty as a tactic if a play is going to be made...

Per Stanislav Lunev Russia, if it is going to launch a first strike, will destabilise and cripple key points/military/politicians via the use of Spetznatz special forces already infiltrated in place, and pre- planted bombs at strategic locations. BIO warfare comes to mind.

======================================================================

Cutting both ways... yes it does.

But you don't need much fuel to launch ICBM's or unleash suitcase nukes or contaminate water or explode an EMP device in the ionosphere which would cripple all unprotected electronic devices/computers throughout the USA.

You don't need much fuel to disperse anthrax from the top of the Empire State or the Seattle Tower...

You don't need much fuel to cripple the dollar and Wall Street by repatriating funds from the USA, selling selected stocks and bonds... demanding gold in payment...

-- Andy (2000EOD@prodigy.net), November 07, 1999.

Andy,

I know Israel has huge oil deposits and potash (fertilizer),after reading the Bible about Russia to invade Israel to take a spoil,I knew these would be the reason or part of the reason.I had wondered what would deplete Russia's oil and fertilizer resources for them to try to take over Israel,then I read R.C. and DD1st light's post on the severe reduction in oil (thus fertilizer) due to y2k problems.

-- Maggie (aaa@aaa.com), November 08, 1999.

China is limited in the damage that it can directly inflict on the US mainland. Russia, however, still retains many of the old Soviet nuclear weapons and has recently fielded a new generation of ICBMs which are probably the most-advanced in the world.

The most serious danger as I see it is, the Russian military leadership should know that its military capabilities will be degraded by y2k effects upon its older systems. They may not be able to detect missile launches from the west, military communications may be unreliable, and the targeting, launching, and navigational systems of their older missiles may not function correctly or at all.

The clocks and calendars in Russia will roll over before those in the West. The immediate effects will hit there first, while the US continues to be unaffected for a number of hours. The advantage will shift significantly, if only perhaps temporarily, to the US; a "window of vulnerability" will open up on Russia. If the senior Russian military command truly believes that y2k will cause serious problems with their nuclear weapons capabilities, then they may have already decided to launch a first strike before their systems become affected.

Soviet military doctrine stated that nuclear war was winnable if you struck first. All senior Russian military commanders are Soviet-trained.

-- Cherokee (Cherokee@qtmail.com), November 08, 1999.

"Soviet military doctrine stated that nuclear war was winnable if you struck first. All senior Russian military commanders are Soviet- trained."

Uh-huh. But they've had 40 years (give or take) in which to strike first and haven't done so. If they've resisted the opportunity to start a nuclear war that long, why would they suddenly throw caution to the wind now?

-- Rob (rob@planet.rob), November 08, 1999.

Might add to this discussion that if an agressor can strike quickly and take territory which is securable without significant opposition (such as strikes against its supply lines, etc) then it is very, very difficult for that land to be 'liberated' again.

If China is substantially intact in terms of its military and supply lines then I would expect to see China become significantly agressive all along its borders within three to six months after the rollover (enough time to assess the ability of US and Europe to respond to military moves). They can always apologize after wards.

-- ..- (dit@dot.dash), November 08, 1999.