Senate Y2K Committee's February 5 Food Supply Hearing revisisted

greenspun.com : LUSENET : TimeBomb 2000 (Y2000) : One Thread

[For newbies and to refresh memories.] Eleven months ago, the Senate Y2K Committee held a hearing on the food supply. Notes are as follows (several threads in Food archive, search on "hearing"].
Dodd: food processors need 6-9 months lead time to gear up for increased production. [This means that, if forewarned and depending on their product, food processors would have had extra product on hand between August and November. This is a VERY good reason for not encouraging people to stockpile food until late this year, i.e., soon, because the extra processed food simply wasn't available. Some time has to be allotted to getting the food from the processors to a supermarket's regional warehouses, but surely no more than a couple of weeks.]
Glickman noted 50 years ago produce was sold within 50 miles of where it was grown. Not so today. Distribution is VERY high-tech, even smaller farms.
No widespread or severe disruption in food supply. Any will be minor, localized by region.
USDA hired Gartner Group to assess. Assessment not complete, much work to be done, but by and large food supply will remain reliable.
USDA looked at about 50% of food distributors, who deal in basic foods; they're in good shape. Of course, few are immune from ANY interruptions, but only minor problems, few delays.
Rural utilities: Glickman says looked at over 50% of borrowers, most indicate will be okay by Y2K. Transportation: larger firms further ahead than smaller ones. International shipping: generally lagging United States.
Food distribution in general: Will likely have a relatively low potential for problems. There's some risk in the short-term for perishables.
There are 20 million on food stamps. USDA expects program to be fully compliant by government deadline of March 31. As for the states, food stamps and WIC program (responsible for local distribution), the results are "promising."
Slight mention that benefits are now by means of EBT (electronic benefit transfer).
Glickman spoke of "fearmongers," scaring people--things are working very well with the food supply.
Bennett: Big problem is source of info on which USDA relies. Gartner assessed 100 major businesses to reach its conclusions re food supply. For 85 of those 100, Gartner looked at SEC filings, press releases, annual reports, etc., i./e., self-reporting. [PLEASE NOTE WELL THE FOLLOWING COMMENT, WHICH APPLIES TO ALL S-R REPORTS IN ANY AREA.] Committee has found that self-reported info tends to be overly optimistic in every circumstance. This is what's found when GAO checks numbers. E.g., Dept of Defense--when GAO checked figures, not what was self-reported. Glickman agreed best face is put on things. Catherine Woteki, undersec for food safety, says she "is reasonably assured" things will be okay.
Bennett asked about mission critical band. Woteki said most organizations are working across the board, not just on mission criticals. But her focus is on mission criticals.
Bennett wondered if the Senate would be working on Y2K and asked the Sergeant at Arms, who is responsible for the computers. The man's response was "really kinda frightening," he said. S at A said all mission criticals would be working, but Bennett wondered about definition of mission critical. For instance, copy machines not deemed mission critical by S at A. If you're running for office and need to get out a mailing, copy machines are mission critical, but S at A didn't see it that way. Sure, you have all summer to fix mission criticals, but remember the copier. [Please read that para again and think about it for a bit.]
Glickman warbled a bit about how Ag is agent for thrift savings plan and big payroll entity. Sounded as if he was about to lay groundwork for not enough personnel, too much to do, etc.
Smith (R-Oregon) is a food processor. Says Ag production good, mostly in oversupply right now. Most of oversupply goes overseas. Focus ought to be on international Y2K compliance, commodities will be backing up in this country.
Schumacher, undersec for [illegible] and foreign service, believes Canada and Japan in reasomnably good shape. Europe, UK, okay, Mexico "has a little more work to do." Russia - concerned, they'll have to work that really hard.
In talking about food quality and international shipping in computerized, "climate controlled" containers, Michael Dunn, undersec for marketing service, says Coast Guard will stop any non-compliant ships from entering US ports.
Anne Reed, Chief Information Officer, USDA, independent assessments all leading to same conclusion as Gartner Group. Trade assoc. info, another source of Y2K compliance info, simialr type of assessment.
Smith is worried that resources for Y2K will be taken from foreign food inspection, got to have safe food, imports must meet USDA standards. $38 billion of food is imported, about 5-6 percent of total. Breaks down as 60% of all seafood is imported, 40% of fruits (mostly bananas) [got canned fruit???], and about 6-10% of vegetables. That's fresh stuff. Processed, canned, "lots" imported, doesn't have stats, doesn't know how much offhand. [They don't know how much of canned produce is imported. Got lots of canned produce?]
But basic foods will be there, meat poultry, bread, milk, baby food. Most milk producers are computerized, can be overriden. Distribution is JIT, they're very much on top of the problem.
Dodd: Japan is only in the awareness phase. "Very far behind." Food exports of about 1.2 billion.
Shumacher says problem in Japan is internal distribution.
Bennett (I think): Of 500 food processors survyed at end of year, only three have replied. [I wonder what the tally is now?]
USDA says their optimism comes from round-table discussions with trade associations. Dairy association, "very forthcoming." [Very reassuring, she said sarcastically.] Meat and poultry, "their awareness is heightened." [Heightened reassurance, she said even more sarcastically.] Trade associations have been very actively polling their membership about Y2K. Glickman will let them know of Committee's concerns. [Defies comment.]
Next up was Tyrone Thayer, President of Cargill, which employs 80,000 people in 65 countries. Has spent $385 million in IT services, $80-100,000 in capital investment in high tech every year. Will be ready for Y2K. Also will have contingency plans for transportation, energy and strategic products.
Says need for "overstockpiling" is "not prudent." [What the hell is "verstockpiling"?]
Bennett says what if next September there's a surge in demand. [Well, obviously, that was nipped in the bud by all the happy-face reassurances that started coming out about then.]
Thayer says they supply raw ingredients to customers, processors, looking at key strategic processes, that may be a problem. Overseas plants are 80% compliant, main concern is transportation. When questioned about possible overseas infrastructure problems, Thayer more or less sidestepped the question. Would Cargill pull out of any overseas location for inability to provide infrastructure? No. (But had to discuss with cohort before answering.)
Allen Dickerson, CIO of Suiza Foods, largest dairy processor in country, plastic producer. Rural electric cooperatives his biggest concern. Transportation re farmers getting milk to them, pretty good, but coal to power plastic plant may be a problem.
Bennett is satisfied that large power plants will be okay.
Ken Evans, Pres, Arizona Farm Bureau: Is very concerned about Y2K. Gave example of insurance co. testing Y2K compliance, changed date, rolled over to Saturday, January 1, 2000, no problem. However, on Tuesday got calls from hundred of irate customers--their insurance had been cancelled. Soemthing to do with main computer passing info to smaller PC with firewall, couldn't handle Y2K info, so cancelled insurance for about a thousand people.
Gave example of large piece of farm equipment--chip problem. Couldn't handle Y2K date calculations, went into eternal loop. Had to scrap, couldn't be fixed, even when date turned back. Seems even though chips looked same, same codes and all, some were from different batches, some good, some bad. No way to tell which is which, just have to wait for failure. [Just have to wait for failure. . .]
Bennett said similar thing happened to medical equipment, told about it at another hearing.
When asked, Evans said, very calmly and matter of factly, he's stockpiling food, fuel and water and has generator. And is doing same for his employees.
The two food processors will stockpile raw materials.
Remember, this was eleven months ago.

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 08, 1999

Answers

"Revisisted"? Hafta shtart drinking coffee inshtead of cheap wine in the morgnins. . .

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 08, 1999.

And here is the Gartner Groups assessment (dated July 2, 1999) address... scroll down the page and click on the Gartner Group link (this is a Word document). Its not a very pretty picture in the food industry. The part I found most alarming was a 58% chance of noticeable disruptions in both feed, seed and wholesale distribution.
http://www.usda.gov/aphis/FSWG/

-- Stacia (ClassyCwgl@aol.com), November 08, 1999.

But look at what they are basing their "optimistic views on"
<<
Bennett (I think): Of 500 food processors survyed at end of year, only three have replied. [I wonder what the tally is now?]
USDA says their optimism comes from round-table discussions with trade associations.
Dairy association, "very forthcoming."
Meat and poultry, "their awareness is heightened."
Trade associations have been very actively polling their membership about Y2K. >>
NOw, if 3 of 500 food companies responded to the FDA, and all of Mr. K's information about the nation's water supply comes from the 1 in 6 who responded - self-reporting ONLY - how many actually have remedation and testing complete?
That's like the IRS asking:
Onnly 1 in 6 returns needs auditing. If you audit your own tax return, we will not have to audit it. Did you audit your own return?
Yes ___ No ___

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 08, 1999.

Isn't it odd that CBS has just tonight started doing what appears to be a GI series on Y2K? I mean, just about right at the nine-month mark. Could this be another significant ratchet up?

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 08, 1999.

And here is the National Grocers Association statement on Y2K:
http://www.nationalgrocers.org/AppliedTech.html
The Year 2000 Problem
[Usual explanation of Y2K problem.]
Understanding the Impact of Y2K on the Grocery Industry [Hotlinks to: N.G.A. Briefs Presidents Council / Visit the Food Supply Working Group Website The Food Supply Working Group is a part of the Presidents Council on Year 2000 Conversion. / Year 2000 Resources Available through N.G.A. / Year 2000 Retail Readiness Kit / Contingency Planning Information / Consumer Communications
N.G.A. members needing additional information on contingency planning, consumer communications or other Y2K-related issues may e-mail ccain@nationalgrocers.org.
Understanding the Year 2000 Date Change
The Food Supply System is Prepared for the Year 2000 Date Change
From retailers, to wholesalers, to manufacturers, companies in the food supply system have been making the necessary technical changes to computer systems to ready them for the Year 2000 date change. Contingency plans are in place as a precautionary measure and to respond to any possible Year 2000-related problems. All indications are that shoppers will be able to shop as normal during the Year 2000 date change. The Food Supply Working Group (FSWG), a sector of the Presidents Council on Year 2000 Conversion, has been working closely with representatives of the food industry to monitor the readiness of retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers. FSWGs quarterly reports show that all sectors of the food supply system have made considerable progress in their Year 2000 preparations.
Shopping as Normal
Consumers should continue to shop as they normally do and shop accordingly for the New Year's holiday weekend. There is no foreseeable reason why consumers would need to overbuy before or during the transition from 1999 to 2000.
Y2K Q&A
What if there are Y2K-related problems?
Contingency plans are in place to respond to possible Y2K-related problems. Historically, retailers have used contingency plans for a variety of reasons, and these contingency plans have enabled them to serve consumers' shopping needs in a safe and effective manner. Predictions are that any Year 2000-related glitches would be short lived and resolvable.
What Can Consumers Expect From Y2K?
Consumers can expect their grocery retailers to be prepared for Y2K. An adequate supply of food products is available in the food supply system and will be sufficient for consumer needs. Once again, consumers can anticipate shopping as they normally do.
Will grocery stores be ready for the Year 2000? Retailers have been working to prepare their systems for the Year 2000 date change. To date, most of the technical work associated with the Y2K problem has been completed. In addition, contingency plans are in place in the event that any Y2K-related problems should occur.
If the food supply system is ready for the Year 2000, why are there contingency plans? As a matter of precaution, retailers ordinarily use contingency plans to continue safe and efficient service to consumers in instances such as power outages, food product recalls, computer system malfunctions, and so on. In the case of Y2K, contingency plans are in place in the event that an inconvenience or disruption occurs from Year 2000 date-related problems.
How do I need to prepare for Y2K? Should I buy extra food? The best way to prepare for Y2K is to stay informed. Talk with the managers of the businesses that you patronize, such as your local grocer. There is no foreseeable reason why consumers would need to overbuy food or related products before or during the Year 2000 date change. Consumers should continue to shop as they normally do and shop accordingly for the New Years holiday weekend.
What about the prescriptions that I get from my grocer's pharmacy? According to the Pharmaceutical Alliance for Y2K Readiness, It is advisable to get a normal refill of your medication when you have a five to seven day supply remaining. The supply system is efficient and can correct issues that may arise within five to seven days. Because a substantial supply of pharmaceuticals already exists within the supply system, it is unnecessary for you to obtain additional supplies of your prescription medications in reaction to Y2K.
Will there be food shortages? Retailers, wholesalers and manufacturers have been working closely together to anticipate product demand for the holiday season. There are no expectations that there will be food shortages. In addition, there is an ample supply of food products within the food supply system. Shoppers do not need to overbuy for the Year 2000 date change and should shop as normal for the New Years holiday

-- Old Git (anon@spamproblems.com), November 08, 1999.

In other words,
"If there are no problems in the food supply and distribution and transportation and comunications chains, then there will be no problems getting food supplied, processed, distributed, or shipped to your local food retailer; therfore you will be able to buy all the usual food that you would usually buy....
We don't expect any problems in the food supply food processing and distribution and transportation and power and comunications chains; therefore, you do not need to do anything except buy what you would usually buy."
---
SO - what if there are prolems in the ...... chains?
All their message is now saying is that they are expecting no problems. Why don't they give some specific numbers (even if self-surveyed) about how many in each system are ACTUALLY compliant and have completed testing?

-- Robert A. Cook, PE (Marietta, GA) (cook.r@csaatl.com), November 09, 1999.

Moderation questions? read the FAQ