I'm trying to figure the logic behind the American Petroleum Institutes strategy to low key the y2k rollover. Help me out here.

I'm not talking about the bogus PR and press release spin but the actual oil infrastructure game plan.

API had their Fall convention about 3 weeks ago. Shortly after that there were several pipelines that announced rollover shutdowns - all within a few days of each other. Now we have the Venz make an announcement that they will also shut their oil facility ports on Dec 31. Of course they intentionally scheduled this on late Friday so it would have a minimal impact on oil markets. Its only logical to assume that many, if not most, of the other oil loading facilities and pipelines of the world will take similar action. Dovetail this with year end hoarding expectations and this is significant.

Here's the crux of my question: My veiwpoint all along has been if the oil companies shut their refineries for rollover that WOULD indeed be a clear signal that maybe refining operations aren't as rosy and remediated as they're indicating. It does not make sense to shut the relatively simple operations like pipelines and loading ports and not the hugely complex refineries. Plus, if these refining operations get jolted with unexpected power failures or internally induced hot shutdowns, its vastly more problematic in terms of rectifying the situation and bringing them back up. The arguement is being extended that these pipelines run through dozens of diffent utilities and power sources so its prudent to shut them for rollover. My counter would be - so what? If you lose power on a pipeline you just restart the pump station after power returns and as long as its not polar climates (on products at least) its no biggie. The same can't be said on refining and conversion operations.

One must assume the refineries are going down as well for rollover. Correct? And its logical to assume there won't be any PR announcements on refinery shutdowns.

How about oil production? I assume the game plan is always to keep production wells up and running. Correct?

And with an obvious gameplan to hushhush these refinery shutdowns. How are we gonna know about them or monitor them come New Years weekend and/or before?

Thanks in advance for your viewpoints.

-- Downstreamer (downstream@bigfoot.com), November 20, 1999

Answers

---it's already there, in plain sight! we've been told over and over and over that 1- y2k is no big deal 2-the shutdowns are a precautionary measure 3-we should be aware that mr. foreign or domestic nasty is planning electronic cyber terrorism, or as reported today, actual physical attacks on the infrastructure. OK---this is bogus, bogus beyond any belief! y2k IS FOR FREEKIN SURE A BIG DEAL--take that as a gimme, for academic purposes--now, mr and mizzus public know full well that-to heck with electric--our economy and safety and everything needs OIL AND GASOLINE. ain't no denying it. no way we could survive without it. ain't happening. Now the big cartels and big bro is stockpiling for themselves, and upping the price by cutting production RIGHT NOW. it's at a nine year high, something like that. plus klintunes noises about another big war with iraq, what he always does to divert attention from domestic issues. they KNOW it's a high probability it's (oil) going down. If the masses of people even remotely had an inkling that this was going to happen there'd be executives and pols hanging from lamp posts all over the industrialized world right now. We wouldn't have panic, we'd have outright revolutions breaking out. the "fix" is in. watch for phony balony media reports of cyber attacks, maybe an actual kaboom or two, and eventual martial law as the fatcats use the military and the police to protect their sorry butts, and the controlled mass media to keep the lies up. the fatcats will still be flying and driving around their mercedes, WITH mil and police escorts. they'll have gas and electric and food and water, believe me. the world is probably going to be a lot less populated by this time next year. This is my belief right now, based on thousands of pieces of info collected and filed away in the ole noodle over the past several years. Look at the BIG picture. anyone answer this--when was the last time ANY big government or big business admitted that they screwed up on something that was really important? waiting........... zog the ponderer

-- zog (zzoggy@yahoo.com), November 20, 1999.

zog .... Methinks thou poundereth too much ! But you are correct; the wealthy rarely get cut by a shortage of anything , especially MONEY . However , this time could be different. They could be so busy spending it, lapping up the Wall Street dribble on an ever rising market and swapping lies with their friends that they are blindsided with Joe Six-pack . There were many " paper " millionaires in 29 , like today , and they weren't in 31 .

On refineries - they will shut down . Common sense and money go hand in hand . I'm sure their insurance companies have insisted on it !!! Eagle

-- Happy Hal (e999eagle@freewwweb.com), November 20, 1999.

Well thought out post. Thanks DStrmr. I have wondered the same. After all a refinery, even a simple refinery, makes a pipeline look like a lionel trainset when it comes to complexity. In case anyone out there doubts this, go to Exxon, Chevron, Mobil etc's website and find their sections on refining. Then take a good hard look at the refineries in question. I never cease to marvel at the massive industrial complexity of a refinery.

But I digress, I think what you're really going to see instead of an outright shutdown, is a scaled down operating state. In other words the safest possible scenario for dealing with all the attendant Y2K problems.

I think they will run at severely reduced rates so that the problems can be identified, hopefully without blowing up the units. If they were to shut them down, they'd be facing the possibility of compounded risk when they all fail on re-start. I know this sounds twisted, but my logic is the common sense variety. Better to have a little controlled shutdown of a problem unit at reduced rates than a launch of your cat cracker to the moon the following day. Comprende?

-- Gordon (g_gecko_69@hotmail.com), November 21, 1999.