The following is a letter I am working on for a friend. At this point, one of the end game moves is to prepare those who must move to shelters or the homes of friends and family on what to take. Your input and advice would be very helpful. I will compile replies and post the finished letter later.

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November 20

Dear xxx,

Thanks for your letter. Good for you for preparing for two weeks! My guess is that with a little augmentation you could stretch that time to several weeks. 25 pounds of rice and flour, 10 pounds each of lentils, navy beans, sugar, macaroni and oatmeal, plus some extras of tuna, spices and cooking oil will extend your preparations considerably. If you are looking for space, try a couple of boxes under the middle of the dining table. I have tuna under the couch and a 25# bag of sugar on a shelf in my closet under the shoes.

You have hit on one of the main problems in your area- heat. If the heat is out due to interruptions in oil fuel, gas pipelines or electricity people will be asked to move into shelters. If food distribution becomes a problem, people will be asked to move into shelters, ditto if the water or sewer goes out.

One of the things you have to consider then, is what to do if you and your family have to move into a shelter, go to stay with friends, or move in with family. What would you do before you leave, and what to take?

Before leaving: turn off water and drain pipes, unplug electrical appliances, make other arrangements for pets. Shelters will not take animals if people are suffering.

Take with you: capacious backpacks for each person with the following:

Vitamins ( you do not want to get sick in a shelter!), medicines, first aid supplies, soap in ziplocks, toilet paper, female supplies, whistle for each person, cash, address book, cell phone, maps, paper, notebook, pen, Nalgene bottles for water, flashlights, synthetic sleeping bag or wool bedroll- warm even if wet, large tarp (many uses, including to cover your possesions, privacy, transistor or crank radio, snow and rain gear, scarves and hats- best single item to keep warm, and washing hair may be difficult, warm clothes- polartec, wool, etc. synthetic long underwear- polartec fabric, waterproof warm boots, rope, clothespins, prayer book, amusements- needlework, card games, Uno,books, hard candy, lifesavers, treats

If you have to leave your home these sorts of things will be priceless, but they are ordinary tools for living in any case.

Christmas is coming, and this is a chance to get and give such useful items as Nalgene bottles, folding knives, whistles, clothes, sleeping bags, packs, toys, and radio.

Vitamins, soap, sanitary supplies and medicines become essential in any time of trouble because the risk of illness is much greater in non-optimal conditions. While you may not be able to stock as much food as you want, a years supply of good vitamins takes up little room and significantly helps your chances .

Lastly, you mentioned worries about people roaming about. Pepper spray is a good alternative for deterrence of people and animals. Stray dogs may be a problem in scenarios of shortages.

-- seraphima (seraphima@aol.com), November 20, 1999